South Dakota Politics

WaPo profiles defeated Daschle

The Washington Post has an article today headlined "After an Often-Tumultuous Tenure, Daschle Exits Quietly." Excerpt:

"One of the biggest ironies of the election result is that nobody fought harder for his state, thought more about the people of the state or spent more time in his state than Tom Daschle, despite the burdens of national leadership," said Joel Johnson, a lobbyist and former aide to Daschle and Clinton. "I think it's something South Dakotans are going to come to regret."

Daschle constantly reminded voters of his national leadership role, going so far as to run an ad in which a fellow declared that a small town in South Dakota would have died if hadn't been for Tom Daschle. I think many South Dakotans were turned off by this condescending attitude, and I think it was a factor in their voting behavior.

The following passage in the article will real ring particularly hollow in the ears of "progressive" true believers:

Despite the GOP's strong showing last month, Daschle said Democrats should not compromise principles or move to the right -- but instead should stick to their "progressive" principles. He added that the country is narrowly divided, and "it wouldn't take much for the progressive movement in this country to be the majority movement again."

This from someone who consistently moved to the right during this election year, on issues like taxes, abortion, and gun control.

Hartford Courant on Daschle's defeat

The Hartford (CT) Courant has an interesting report today headlined "Senate Voice Of Outrage Silenced By Defeat" (registration).  Excerpt:

How, Democrats are asking, should they move, not only philosophically, but stylistically? Should members match the Republicans in volume and, some would say, stridency? Or stick to the Daschle model of trying to have it both ways, of working inside the strange, complex system that is Congress while also speaking out - and alienating - the opposition?

[...]

Daschle is around Washington this week but he's not talking much. Reid and his team are the spokesmen, and Republicans are eager to work with them - though not for the reasons Democrats hope.

"Sen. Daschle was the chief obstructionist for so much of what we want to do," said Allen, who headed the Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee. "A message was sent, and usually after an election like this, people get the message."

AP compares Daschle's defeat to Speaker Foley's defeat

"Foley Sees Parallels in Daschle's Defeat": The AP has this fascinating report.  Excerpt:

For Tom Foley, Election Night was a bitter replay of a moment he would rather forget.

Ten years after the former Democratic House speaker was turned out of office in a humiliating defeat, Foley watched as Senate Democratic leader Tom Daschle was vanquished in a race with parallels to his own.

In each case, voters more conservative than the veteran lawmaker representing them punished a leader they perceived as more in touch with the capital than his home state.

If anyone understands Daschle's pain, it is Foley. His 1994 defeat made him the first sitting House speaker since 1862 to lose a bid for re-election. Daschle, D-S.D., was the first party leader in the Senate to lose re-election in more than 50 years....

Foley said Daschle, who lost to former Rep. John Thune, suffered from many of the factors that ultimately felled him: Voters either did not appreciate or understand the value of service as party leader, a role that sometimes caused both men to act in ways contrary to their own political survival.

"I think sometimes there's a difficulty in understanding what a state receives from having a majority leader in the Senate or a speaker of the House - or that those things viewed as not as important as they once were," Foley said....

The twin defeats - a decade apart - offer Democrats a sobering lesson, Foley said.

"When I lost the principal problem was in the rural counties," just as it was for Daschle, he said. "That's the thing that Democrats have to be concerned about around the country: the growing split between rural and urban.

"We need to examine how it was are responding to this division ... particularly the sense in some rural areas that the Democratic Party is not a party that respects faith or family or has respect for values. I think that's wrong, but it's a dangerous perception if it develops as it has," he said.

DVT's 26 factors in Thune's win

The indefatigable DVT lists 26 factors explaining how John Thune defeated Senator Daschle.

Gannon

Jeff Gannon, whose reportage had a dramatic impact on the Daschle v. Thune race (his story about Sen. Daschle signing a legal document claiming to be a D.C. resident was published nearly the same day Thune began to run an ad showing Daschle saying "I'm a DC resident"), has written an analysis of the debacle headlined "Daschle Betrayed By Staff In Homestead Tax Debacle" Excerpt:

Although several factors contributed to the defeat of Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle (D-SD), one of the most serious wounds the three-term incumbent suffered was self-inflicted. In claiming a property tax break limited to residents of the District of Columbia, the Senator drew attention to the very thing he had long worked to conceal: He was more a creature of Washington, DC than Aberdeen, SD.

(Via DVT.)

What it means to be "Daschled"

The Hill, a Capitol Hill publication, defines the verb "Daschled" to mean "to aggressively target for defeat a liberal Democrat who represents an otherwise solidly Republican state."

Dem observer: Daschle's position "hurt his effectiveness at home and in Washington"

I missed an interesting article in the Washington Times this past week headlined "Capitol Hill leadership."  The following passage in the article really jumped off the page:

Democratic Byron Dorgan of North Dakota tested the waters to run for the whip post, but also demurred. His situation is instructive. Watching Mr. Daschle lead an increasingly partisan and liberal caucus in Washington, representing a red state where President Bush garnered 60 percent was frustrating — a tension many believe led to his electoral demise. "It hurt his effectiveness at home and in Washington," a Democratic lobbyist told me.

More analytical observations of the Senate race

World Magazine has an interesting take on Thune's victory:

The judicial issue in particular made John Thune's stunning ouster of Sen. Tom Daschle (D-S.D.) a victory of national importance. The defeated Senate minority leader "was the initiator of the Democratic strategy to filibuster everything in the Senate," said Free Congress Foundation head Paul Weyrich. "Good judges, tax cuts, the marriage amendment. You name it, he wanted to filibuster it."

Indeed, Republicans blamed Mr. Daschle for thwarting much of the president's first-term agenda. Now that Mr. Daschle, after 18 years in Congress, is headed toward some post-congressional afterlife, Mr. Weyrich said his obstructionist tactics are likely to go with him. His presumptive successor, Sen. Harry Reid (D-Nev.), "is not going to employ the filibuster-everything strategy," Mr. Weyrich said. "There will be a lot of pressure from inside his caucus not to do that."

Yet a kinder, gentler Democratic Caucus is not likely to emerge from a renewed sense of statesmanship but rather from simple math. Republicans now will be able to add up to two GOP members to each congressional committee, increasing their majority. "There is now the chance to out-vote Arlen Specter," said Mr. Weyrich, noting that the liberal Republican senator often votes with Democrats, creating a thin majority that stalls conservative policy. For that, conservatives have to thank John Thune, who "ran a brilliant campaign," according to Mr. Weyrich.

South Dakotans elected Mr. Thune to the House in 1998 and 2000 before he lost a Senate bid in 2002. Last week, though, he edged out the incumbent in a 2-point win after a campaign that exposed Mr. Daschle's liberal voting record.

Again and again, Mr. Thune told voters that the senator had lost touch with most South Dakotans, particularly on social issues such as abortion and gay marriage. A majority of those who cast ballots on Election Day agreed—even some Democrats. Kent Foster, 32, a registered Democrat, said he voted for Mr. Daschle in previous elections, but this time picked a different horse. "I hate to lose [Daschle's] clout," he said of the incumbent. "But I think he's been in D.C. too long. He's gotten away from his roots."

Farmer Dick Fennel and his wife also voted for Mr. Thune. "We just don't feel Daschle has been representing our views. He's just way too liberal for the state of South Dakota."

Mt. Blogmore thread

Be sure to add your comments on the Mt. Blogmore thread inviting analysis of the 2004 Senate race in South Dakota.

NYT on Daschle's defeat

The New York Times offers suggestions to congressional Democrats in the wake of Senator Daschle's defeat in an editorial headlined "Recircling the Democrats' wagons." Excerpt:

The Democrats' last redoubt in Washington - their minority outpost in the Senate - became considerably shakier last Tuesday with the fall of their leader, Senator Tom Daschle of South Dakota, and the loss of a total of four seats. But it remains the party's best chance of exercising some form of political relevance in the second Bush administration, by using its minority power selectively to filibuster objectionable legislation and unacceptable presidential nominees, and by continuing to make alliances with the dwindling band of Republican moderates.

The impact of the Dakota Blog Alliance

Glenn Reynolds:

One place where a weblog did make the difference, or at least a large part thereof, was in the defeat of Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle of South Dakota. Professor Jon Lauck's Daschle v. Thune weblog played a big role (along with quite a few other South Dakota political blogs) in nationalizing that campaign, and in applying scrutiny to South Dakota's main political news outlet, the Sioux Falls Argus Leader, whose pro-Daschle slant had previously gone unchallenged. The Argus Leader's sputtering responses are the best proof that this had an impact, but folks also noticed in neighboring North Dakota.

Will red-state Dem emulate Daschle?

The Las Vegas Review-Journal has an opinion piece today headlined "Sen. Harry Reid, minority leader." Excerpt:

If his new leadership position requires him to carry the banner of the far left, becoming minority leader may very well be a career-ender for Sen. Harry Reid.

Daschle to co-host dinner for new senators

David Broder of the Washington Post had a report yesterday headlined "Senate Orientation Aims to Bridge Gap." Excerpt:

Prodded by two junior members, the Republican and Democratic leaders of the Senate have invited newly elected members of that body to spend three days next week getting to know each other and discussing how to overcome the bitter partisanship that has blocked action on so many issues the past two years....

The orientation program deliberately does not include any policy debates, Alexander said, but rather is focused on "what it takes for the Senate to function as an institution and fulfill its constitutional role."

To emphasize that perspective, the opening session next Sunday afternoon, will be held in the Old Senate Chamber, a small ceremonial room steeped in tradition, and the first speaker will be Senate historian Richard A. Baker. After a tour of the current Senate chamber led by Sen. Ted Stevens (R-Alaska), the Senate president pro tempore, Frist and Daschle will be hosts of a dinner for the senators and their spouses in the Lyndon B. Johnson Room of the Capitol. Brian Lamb, the founder and head of C-SPAN, will speak at the dinner.

Oozing with contempt

Ryne McClaren points to a Mark Steyn column headlined "Condescending Dems still don't get it." Excerpt:

In my time, I've known dukes, marquesses, earls, viscounts and other members of Britain's House of Lords and none of them had the contempt for the masses one routinely hears from America's coastal elites. And, in fairness to those ermined aristocrats, they could afford Dem-style contempt: A seat in the House of Lords is for life; a Senate seat in South Dakota isn't.

For a dose of some Dem-style contempt as it pertains to South Dakota, see a piece in today's Minneapolis Star Tribune headlined "South Dakota gives sharp-dressed liberal the boot."

Slide show

To view a slide show of the Thune victory, click HERE.

What it means to be "Daschled"

The New York Times has an article today headlined "On Capitol Hill, the Majority Doesn't Always Rule." Excerpt:

Already, there is a new verb floating around the Capitol: "Daschled." It describes what can happen to those, like the Senate Democratic Leader Tom Daschle, who oppose Republican legislation and then lose re-election in heavily Republican states. That fate, and the result of the presidential race, left Democrats looking ashen on the morning after Election Day. In South Dakota, Senator Tim Johnson, despairing over Mr. Daschle's defeat, said he wasn't returning colleagues' calls. Later that day, another Senate Democrat, on his way back to Washington, said grimly of Republicans: "They'll get everything they want now."

(Via DVT.)

Steyn on the Daschle defeat

Mark Steyn has a great column headlined "A Catastrophic Night for Democrats" that makes a point I've been mulling the past few days. One of the reasons the Dems keep losing is because they're always kidding themselves to get around the fact that America is a conservative country. Excerpt from Steyn's column:

No matter how many movies Michael Moore makes, America is basically a conservative country. If you don’t believe me, look at Tom Daschle, the Democrats’ Senate leader and the first such party leader to be defeated in over half a century. Daschle’s going down to defeat in South Dakota by a big enough margin that even the traditional Democratic trick — finding a few thousand extra ‘late votes’ lying around under an abandoned pick-up on one of the more distant Indian reservations — is unlikely to suffice. Daschle has spent years as a doctrinaire liberal Democrat in Washington while posing as a ‘bipartisan’ ‘moderate’ ‘centrist’ back in his conservative home state. This year it caught up with him.

Thune victory roundup

First, see an excellent article by Sheryl Gay Stolberg at the New York Timed headlined "Gracious but Defeated, Daschle Makes History." Excerpt:

"John is going to come in a hero," declared Senator George Allen of Virginia, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, saying the party would probably like to see Mr. Thune's face on Mount Rushmore. Mr. Allen called the outcome of the South Dakota race "monumental" and said it was psychologically equivalent to Republicans' winning three seats.

For Mr. Thune, a telegenic 43-year-old who drew strong support from fiscal and Christian conservatives, the victory was especially sweet. Two years ago he lost a bruising Senate race to another Democrat, Tim Johnson, by just 524 votes.

About 3:30 Wednesday morning, he greeted a throng of cheering supporters and announced, "I think everyone's got a little celebrating to do."

Below is a picture of John Thune receiving a congratulatory phone call from Senator Daschle. Senator-elect Thune thanked Senator Daschle for his thirty years of service to South Dakota. Behind Thune is his brother, Rich, and in the background, Political Director Ryan Nelson and Deputy Campaign Manager John Wood can be seen congratulating each other.

The crowd went nuts when Thune took the stage:

Here, Thune embraces his mentor, Senator Abdnor, who Daschle defeated in 1986:

The Times also discusses South Dakota in its traditional state-by-state post-election analysis.

Elsewhere in the Times, William Safire says President Bush should "offer a domestic cabinet post to Daschle, an understanding pol who can be depended on to turn it down" and suggests the Democrats replace Daschle with Senator Kerry. Meanwhile, Maureen Dowd says John Thune is "an anti-abortion Christian conservative."

The Washington Post has an article headlined "Leader's Defeat Means New Face for Democrats."

The Washington Times has an article headlined "Daschle concedes win to Thune."

Finally, Steve Hemmingsen "weighs in" with this observation:

What happened? Tom is a good guy and he has been friendly to me over the years but, you know, I think in the end the Thune folks were right about one thing and one thing that counts in South Dakota: being out of touch. I don't know that he was way out of touch, but Thune's hired gun campaign manager, Dick Wadhams, used the strokes of a master painter to compose the picture he wanted the average South Dakotan to see, disregarding everything else.

Without a doubt, the canvas was those first commercials showing John Thune's kids.

There were a lot of strokes in between about being an obstructionist, being against South Dakota values and all that. But I suspect the final nails appealed to the basic instinct of South Dakotans who live in small towns: don't get too big for your britches.

That last blast of commercials showing the multi-million dollar house, the swimming pool, Linda Daschle's Jaguar, her ¾ million-dollar paycheck as a lobbyist all added up to "He ain't the kid from Aberdeen anymore."

Tom threw some logs on the fire himself. Going town to town in a suburban. He might as well have driven the Jag. He should have known better. There was that dumb hunting commercial with clothing so new all that was missing was the Minnie Pearl price tag on the hat. Throw in the testimony about Tom disappearing only to turn up walking the cornrows to fill his limit fell short of heroic. Isn't that what any hunter would do? He should have known better. He looked like a Washington guy hunting in South Dakota.

Thune wins!

The sun may or may not rise in two hours (recall that Senator Daschle said that if he were re-elected, the sun would continue to rise over South Dakota).

Do you believe in miracles?

The Argus Leader says "Thune Leads." CBS News' Dan Rather just called it for Thune! It's mathematically impossible for Thune to lose. What a moment! At long last, it's time. John Hinderaker of Power Line said this summer that we will know the blogs have arrived if they are influential in toppling a Democratic Leader, since the media and the blogs helped topple Majoriity Leader Lott.

Is it over yet?

DVT:

The fat lady is warming up.

Thune starting to pull away

It's important to note that at this time in 2002, Thune was still behind. Right now, Thune's ahead, and basically all of his strongest counties are yet to be reported. If he keeps his lead, and adds to it, it should counter the votes from the strongly pro-Daschle reservation counties.

NRO has more on the Daschle TRO

Professor Lauck at DVT has been more productive than usual today. He's got a new piece up at NRO: "His Day in Court."

Thune up in exit polling

Drudge and NRO say Thune is up slightly in exit polling.

Analysis of the Piersol TRO

Political Brief has more keen insights on the temporary restraining order issued by Judge Piersol early this morning. Excerpt:

Given the judge’s relationship with Daschle and the order he did finally issue, Judge Piersol must have entered his chambers with his mind struggling over how to craft an order that would allow his friend to save face without completely vitiating his obligation to uphold the rule of law.

So the reality for Daschle is an embarrassment, but Judge Piersol has give given him a pretext for arguing it was a win. It appears that at, least with the Argus Leader, Judge Piersol and Daschle succeeded. And there was a time when that would have been enough. Have we passed that point? Have the collective resources of the Internet and efforts of all the people covering this farce last night exposed this subterfuge for all to see?

Maybe. The truth, however, is that the vast majority of South Dakotans don’t read this blog or DvT or SDP or any other political blog. If they did, Daschle would probably lose today, and it wouldn’t be close.

Thune challenges "sham" ruling

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Tuesday, November 2, 2004

Contact:

Dick Wadhams

John Wood

(605) 221-1010

JOHN THUNE TO CHALLENGE “SHAM” COURT RULING

SIOUX FALLS –John Thune will appeal the “sham” ruling made late last night by a federal judge with close personal and political ties to Senator Tom Daschle.

“This sham ruling will not stand,” said Thune for Senate campaign manager Dick Wadhams. “Daschle’s desperate move is nothing less than an attempt to steal this election in the dark of night by a political crony in a judge’s robe.”

The testimony presented at the hearing consisted of nothing more than the speculation of a single Daschle operative from Virginia who testified that all he observed was eye-rolling and note taking by observers.

“We will appeal this ruling in the Eighth Circuit Court of Appeals,” Wadhams said. “We are going to order a transcript of the hearing and prove to the people of the State of South Dakota that this hearing was a farce and the decision is not supported by ANY evidence.”

Federal Judge Larry Piersol is a longtime personal friend and political ally of Daschle.

Piersol was Daschle’s personal lawyer in 1978 when Daschle first ran and won a contested election for Congress.

Daschle nominated Piersol for the appointment by President Bill Clinton for the federal judgeship Piersol now holds.

Piersol’s wife, Catherine, is listed as a supporter of Daschle in an ad appearing in today’s Sioux Falls Argus Leader.

An "absurd and transparent ploy"

Hugh Hewitt:

The most rewarding bit of news this day comes from South Dakota, where the blog DaschlevThune has been reporting on the pathetic Tom Daschle's pathetic last minute law suit must be causing enormous damage to Daschle as word of its silliness spreads via the internet at cyberspeed. This tactic --filing foolish and far-fetched last-minute lawsuits brought before friendly judges who issue rulings that will be overturned only after the damage at the polls is done-- cannot work anymore, not as long as courtrooms are open and there's a WiFi around. See also SouthDakotaPolitics and Sibby.

The judge has issued some lame order restricting the GOP from recording license plate numbers. That could not possibly have been worth the embarrassment Tom Daschle has brought upon himself with this absurd and transparent ploy. The blogosphere flexes again. One of the entries suggest at DvT suggests the judge is upset that there are real time reports of the proceedings showing up ont he web. Sorry, your honor, you may Tom Daschle's pal and get to wear the robe, but freedom is what it is all about, including the freedom to mock trumped up legal ploys.

The Weekly Standard weighs in

Joseph Bottum, a South Dakota native and a Weekly Standard writer, has a piece today headlined "Suing Your Way to Defeat." Excerpt:

Daschle has seriously misunderstood the power of the alternative media, especially radio and the Internet, to get news about this kind of thing out to the voting public. The South Dakota bloggers have been relentless: Jon Lauck live blogged the hearing (and the judge whined about it in open court: is that cool, or what?) Jason Van Beek kept the stream coming through the night, as did Steve Sibson, Ryne McClaren, and others.

The kind of political trick that Daschle's lawyers tried works only if it remains an unverified rumor through Election Day, and things don't remain rumors anymore. The new electronic world welcomes you, Senator Daschle--and it says goodbye to you, as well. The whole state now knows about the lawsuit, and your claims of vicious eye-rolling, and how you've turned into some weird guy at a cocktail party doing his chicken imitations.

Besides, I'm sorry to report, you lost the case. Even your buddy Piersol was too embarrassed to give you more than an order banning the writing down of license-plate numbers. I've been pessimistic about John Thune's chance all year and wrote here in THE WEEKLY STANDARD that the race was still Daschle's to lose. I think he just has.

Quentin on the preemptive legal strike

Quentin has an open thread for those who want to comment on the Daschle v. Thune ruling.

Judge Piersol issues his ruling

DVT:

The judge has issued an order restricting Republicans from recording license plate numbers of people leaving the polls in Charles Mix County.

UPDATE: More from DVT:

Well, this is a kick in the pants for the Democrats, who wanted the judge to force the Republican Party to completely re-deploy all its poll watchers. They had no substantive evidence, they relied on a Howard Dean operative who has been here for a day as the basis for their case, they looked desperate, they didn't get the relief they wanted, the entire GOP poll watching system is still in place, and more questions have been raised about why Democrats are so paranoid about people "ostentatiously taking notes."

Pics from tonight's rally outside the courthouse

AP reports on Daschle v. Thune

The AP is reporting: "Daschle takes Thune to court on night before election." Excerpt:

During a break in the hearing, Daschle spokesman Dan Pfeiffer and Thune campaign manager Dick Wadhams got into a back-and-forth exchange with reporter.

Pfeiffer said Thune's campaign lied in saying Daschle was trying to keep Republican observers from watching the polls.

"It seeks to stop this behavior," Pfeiffer said of the testimony. "All we're trying to do is to let people vote."

Thune campaign manager Dick Wadhams shot back that the intent was to keep GOP watchers away and lay the groundwork for a judicial challenge of the election results.

"Who goes into court the night before an election if they're not afraid they're going to lose," he said.

Wadhams said Piersol was at one time Daschle's lawyer, the judge was recommended to the bench by Daschle and Piersol's wife supports Daschle's campaign.

"This is a joke," Wadhams said.

UPDATE: The AP has revised the story under the headline "Judge partially grants Daschle's request to limit activity of GOP poll watchers."

Ryne McClaren

Ryne McClaren has done a great job of covering Daschle suing Thune in federal court tonight. Just start at the top and keep scrolling.

Entire Daschle complaint

Here's a PDF copy of Senator Daschle's complaint seeking a temporary restraining order.

Wally weighs in

Wally at Irreconcilable Musings asks:

Are you telling me that the same lawyer that sued to put Tom Daschle over the hump against Leo Thorsness in 1978 is now the federal judge that can put him over the top against John Thune in 2004?

Analysis of Daschle's risky gambit

The blog "Political Brief" notes that Judge Piersol had some laudatory comments for Senator Daschle a mere FOUR DAYS AGO. There's also some good analysis of what prompted Daschle to make this move. DVT notes that Daschle's lawyers rested after one white guy from Virginia claimed Indians were being intimidated at Lake Andes. You'd think that they'd actually bring the allegedly intimidated Indians up to the courthouse. The fact that there wasn't one single Indian who testified tonight speaks volumes about the strength of Daschle's case.

DVT liveblogging the temporary restraining order hearing

DVT has a source at the federal court hearing and is liveblogging it.

The desperation of Daschle

Power Line links to this Argus Leader story written by Mike Madden about Daschle's attempt to have a friendly judge intervene in the election. According to the Washington Post, Judge Piersol is a "close friend of Daschle's":

"He is not a softy, but he is a sensitive person," says Larry Piersol, a federal judge in South Dakota and a close friend of Daschle's.

Here's what Daschle had to say about Judge Piersol at the ATLA Convention in 2003:

First, I got my start in politics thanks to lawyers... rather, one lawyer in particular. In 1978, I won my first
election to the House by 14 votes. Don’t laugh, in South Dakota, that’s 60 percent of the vote.
Apparently undaunted by that landslide of support, my opponent sued to contest the election. I
was fortunate to be represented by a great lawyer and a dear friend, Larry Piersol. It took one
year and 21 days, but here I am 25 years later.

Thomas A. Daschle vs. John Thune, South Dakota Republican Party, and John Does 1-200

Below is the first page of Senator Daschle's "Complaint to enforce compliance with consent order and with the laws and Constitution of the United States and for emergency relief." The hearing for a restraining order is going on at this very moment in the Sioux Falls Federal Courthouse.

The book about the Daschle v. Thune race

Professor Lauck over at DVT is seeking thoughts from readers about a book he's going to write on this Senate race when it's all said and done. He wants them in before the election is over, so send along an e-mail to him at [email protected].

Wash. Times on SD Senate race

Today's edition of the Washington Times has a story headlined "Daschle struggles to retain his seat." Excerpt:

The South Dakota Senate race arguably will be one of the most watched congressional contests tomorrow. Republicans are striving not only to pick up another seat in the Senate, but also to unseat the Democratic leader, who, they say, has blocked many of their proposals and judicial nominees.

"It's a chance for the people of South Dakota to send a message to the rest of the country," an upbeat former New York Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani told a cheering crowd at a rally for Mr. Thune here Friday night. "The kind of enthusiasm, strength... you have in this room is the kind of thing that wins elections."

Ave Maria List print ad

Here's a picture of the Ave Maria List print ad that appeared in today's Argus Leader. You can access a PDF copy of the ad by clicking HERE. The ad contrasts Daschle's letters to constituents in past elections decrying abortion with the fundraising letter he wrote for NARAL in 2002.

Harvard Law prof: History says Thune wins this race

Harvard Law professor William J. Stuntz has written an interesting piece headlined "Daschle May Lose -- And Republicans May Regret It."

Jay Reding profiles SD Senate race

Jay Reding has written an excellent profile of the Daschle v. Thune race over at Redstate.org.

NRA rally photos

Sibby has pictures from last night's NRA rally for John Thune.

Charlie Cook predicts Daschle loss

On today's edition of "Meet the Press," political expert Charlie Cook predicted a Daschle loss. Here's the transcript. Excerpt:

MR. COOK: I think it's somewhere between wash and Republicans pick up a seat or two. I think North Carolina, South Carolina, I do think Republicans will pick that up, and to be honest, I've sort of put a feather on the scale for beating Tom Daschle in South Dakota. On the Repub...

MR. RUSSERT: You think Daschle loses?

MR. COOK: It's close but I'd put a little feather there, and on the other side, I think Democrats are going to--it's close, but Alaska, Colorado, I kind of think they're going to win there and I kind of think they may pull off an upset in Kentucky, and that leaves Florida and Louisiana still out there, and Florida, I just would never begin to call it.

Capital Gang predictions

CNN's Capital Gang made Senate predictions tonight. Bob Novak, Kate O'Bierne and Margeret Carlson predicted a Thune win. Here's the transcript. Excerpt:

Starting with Bob Novak -- Bob, when the dust settles on Tuesday night or Wednesday morning, or whenever it settles, what will the Senate line-up be?

NOVAK: I think it'll be a net gain of three Republicans, and that's a 54 to 46 majority, working out this way. I think the Democrats obviously take the Illinois seat. I think they probably take the Colorado and Alaska seats, although those are very close, and -- but I think the chickens have come home to roost for the Democrats in the South. I think they're going to lose all five of those Southern states, including Louisiana, which may not be settled until the run-off after the election. So that's -- you say, well, wait a minute. That's three and five. How do I get a net three? I say Tom Daschle goes down in South Dakota, so that's a net gain of three seats for the Republicans.

SHIELDS: Boy, oh, boy! Margaret.

CARLSON: I'm plus-one the GOP, and I think you might be right about South Dakota, but I gave it to Tom Daschle for...

NOVAK: Sentimental...

CARLSON: ... sentimental reasons, yes. And my other one that's not so...

(CROSSTALK)

CARLSON: I know. Real soft-hearted here -- is Kentucky. I think that Jim Bunning's erratic behavior may catch up with him, even though Republicans have done a good job of tamping him down.

SHIELDS: "Erratic" is a euphemism...

CARLSON: ... but I have that going...

SHIELDS: ... where Jim Bunning's concerned.

CARLSON: Yes, it is.

SHIELDS: Kate, what's going to happen?

O'BEIRNE: I think Republicans will be up four in the Senate...

SHIELDS: Oh!

O'BEIRNE: ... making the split 55-44. I think Republicans will lose Illinois. They'll lose Colorado or Alaska. I don't think they'll lose both. I agree with Bob. I think they'll sweep those open Democratic seats in the South, including Mel Martinez in Florida. And I think Tom Daschle finally loses in South Dakota. You know, there's a terrific John Thune ad up with Tom Daschle declaring himself on camera, I'm a D.C. resident, praising trial lawyers, celebrating abortion, celebrating Hillary Clinton. He's listed, as you know -- D.C. is his principal place of residence. And I think he's going to wind up back in his principal place of residence with no more pesky trips out to South Dakota.

SHIELDS: Hey, pesky? Goes to every county every year.

O'BEIRNE: Well, he won't have to anymore.

HUNT: It'll be a good day in Dixie for the Republicans, not quite as good as Bob and Kate -- Kate predict, however. I think they'll win three of those five seats down there. Tom Daschle will hang on. He has been the -- he is a South Dakotan, and he goes to every county every year in that state. They know he's a South Dakotan. It may take a day or two before we really have that finalized, though. And I think the Democrats are going to pick up four of the Republican-held seats elsewhere, including -- Margaret's right -- Kentucky. That'll be the big surprise. And as a result, 50- 50, repeat of 2001.

O'BEIRNE: There'll be Dick Cheney to break the tie.

HUNT: No, John Edwards breaks the tie.

(CROSSTALK)

SHIELDS: ... John Edwards in the race of course. I think it's 50-50, and I think -- I think Daschle does hang on, as close as Tim Johnson did in 2002. But I -- and I think that Barack Obama, obviously, wins. I think Kim Salazar wins in Colorado. And I think Governor Tony Knowles wins in Alaska. And I think what you then have Betty Castor, and I'm predicting that Erskine Bowles wins in North Carolina because the North Carolina Bush race with Kerry is closer than it should be, just as the race in Virginia is close. Remarkable development of this -- this election is I think the margin is going to be so much closer in so many states than it has been in the past.

NRA Rally

DVT has pictures of tonights NRA rally for Thune. It so happened that only a few doors down from the NRA rally was a meeting for Daschle's out-of-state coterie of lawyers. All of their luggage was piled up against the wall in the room where they were meeting. DVT has pictures of that as well.

Ad in today's Argus Leader

Below is a picture of a pro-Thune ad in today's Argus Leader purchased by a relative of mine from Mission, SD named Mike Assman:

The RV vote

Quentin notes a report from Minnesota Public Radio headlined "RV vote could affect South Dakota senate race." Excerpt from the MPR report:

In South Dakota, Minnehaha County Auditor Sue Roust is also concerned. She's a Democrat. She says RV voters tend to favor Republicans. She uses the Tower Campground precinct as an example.

"The voters who I consider to be the resident voters, there's a slight Democratic edge in registration. Whereas with the RV'ers, it's Republicans 46 percent, Democrats 27 percent," says Roust.

Quentin observes:

If Linda Daschle can register to vote in South Dakota without ever having lived here why can't a slew of RVers?

Interesting question.