South Dakota Politics

SD Senate Race

Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post blog, The Fix, ranks what he thinks will be the most competitive Senate races in 2008.  South Dakota ended up tied with Virginia at number eight:

8. South Dakota (tie): Things are starting to get back to normal in the South Dakota political world -- six months after Sen. Tim Johnson (D) nearly died from a brain hemorrhage. It remains an open question whether Johnson will seek reelection; a final decision won't be made until the fall. If he runs, it will be tough to find a serious Republican to challenge him. In an open seat, Republicans would have an immediate advantage due to the GOP lean of the state. Gov. Mike Rounds (R) would likely run in an open seat. Democrats are doing everything they can to create the perception that Johnson is ready to run for a third term. What we don't know is whether or not Dems are engaged in wishful thinking.

Novak on Johnson

Kevin Woster writing on Mount Blogmore:

Robert Novak led his column in today’s RCJ with a brief look at Sen. Tim Johnson’s medical condition and political future.

Novak says “national Democratic Party strategists” think Johnson will be ready for reelection in 2008. But if he can’t or won’t run, those same strategists, Novak says, fear the party will lose his seat.

That’s because they don’t think Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin could win a general election for the Senate seat, Novak says. He lists Gov. Mike Rounds as the likely Republican candidate for the Senate. (Rounds continues a coy non-denial denial about his possible run for the Senate….my words, not Novak’s).

Novak also lists Lt. Gov. Dennis Daugaard and state Sen. Majority Leader Dave Knudson as other possible Senate candidates.

Novak says “South Dakota Republican insiders” (Is that you, Joel????) say they doubt Johnson will be able to run next year.

Personally, I”m not sure on Johnson in 2008, although I tend to think he will run. Despite his docile personality, Johnson is a fierce competitor who loves the duties of the Senate and understands the importance of his seat to his party. I expect his recovery effort to be nothing short of heroic.

But if he doesn’t run, I think Herseth Sandlin would be a better candidate that Novak suggests.

Rounds would be tough to beat, no question. But as she showed in a competitive loss to Bill Janklow and two tough wins over Larry Diedrich prior to her 2006 blow-out of Bruce Whalen, Herseth Sandlin would be formidable, too.

And if the Republican candidate is anyone other than Rounds, I think she’d have to be the favorite.

Kranz: Dusty Johnson, Joel Dykstra for Congress?

Yesterday, Argus Leader political columnist Dave Kranz reported that Dusty Johnson and Joel Dykstra are being considered as Republican challengers to face either Stephanie Herseth or Tim Johnson:

Republicans have been in somewhat of a flux since the hospitalization of Sen. Tim Johnson as they try to get movement from possible candidates for those top 2008 races.

There are now at least two Republicans who have gotten to the point where they are weighing their sensitivity to Johnson's illness, but they also recognize they must start exploratory ventures.

Dusty Johnson, first-term Public Utilities Commissioner, and state Rep. Joel Dykstra, R-Canton, are at that point of soul-searching their political futures.

For Johnson, it is a possible U.S. House race. Dykstra contemplates the House and the U.S. Senate.

"It is something I am considering. Any time you have a realistic opportunity to make South Dakota better, you have to take a look," Dusty Johnson says. "The thing for me: Can you be a good congressman and a good father?"

...

"I have tremendous respect for Rep. Herseth Sandlin, but this is not about her. It is tough to sit on the sidelines as we deal with security and economic issues. It would be an opportunity for me to make a difference," Johnson said.

Rep. Joel Dykstra is opening the door to a possible U.S. Senate campaign regardless of what Johnson decides to do.

It would be an interesting lineup for Republicans, who might have a solid congressional field going into the next election cycle.  Also, as SDWC noted, "When faced with a choice of this nature, it means that the Congresswoman is not going to get the luxury of ducking debates for a third election in a row."  Speaking of SDWC and the election, head over to his blog and weigh in on who you'd like to see run in 2008.

Novak on Johnson

See this from Bob Novak:

TIM JOHNSON'S SEAT

National Democratic Party strategists believe that Sen. Tim Johnson, out of sight since suffering a brain hemorrhage last Dec. 13, will be able to run for re-election in South Dakota next year. But if he cannot, they fear Democrats will lose the seat in the heavily Republican state.

These strategists doubt Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, the probable Democratic nominee if Johnson does not run, can win a Senate race. The strongest Republican candidate would be Gov. Mike Rounds. Other possibilities are Lt. Gov. Steve Kirby and State Senate Majority Leader Dave Knudson.

South Dakota Republican insiders say they doubt Johnson will be able to be a candidate. His office has said he may return to the Senate as early as this summer, with the help of a wheelchair.

Johnson's Political Future

Here's a story from the New York Times (originally from CQPolitics) about Senator Tim Johnson entitled "Johnson's Political Future Stirs Speculation - And Fundraising."   The NYT says that a lot of big-name Democrats are helping raise money for an expected Johnson re-election bid in 2008.  The story also notes some names on both sides of the aisle that might try and replace Johnson if he decides not to run.  Excerpt:

As Sen. Tim Johnson, D-S.D., continues a long rehabilitation following brain surgery four months ago, Democrats and Republicans continue to ruminate on the unusual political situation — including who might run for the seat next year.

Johnson has not voted in the Senate this year, but he has been getting up to speed at an undisclosed rehabilitation facility. And his re-election campaign is well under way: While neither Johnson nor a surrogate has officially declared that the senator will seek re-election, he is expected to do so if his health continues to improve.

“It’s not a firm decision, but he was very enthusiastic about running before all this happened,” Johnson spokeswoman Julianne Fisher told CQPolitics.com.

It is not clear when he will return to Washington, but big-name Democrats are helping raise money for Johnson as he continues to recover. His seat could be pivotal in the 2008 campaign for the Senate, which Democrats operationally control by a 51-49 margin.

Montana Sen. Max Baucus organized a fundraising committee — The Baucus-Johnson Victory Fund — in January to help raise money for Johnson. Fisher said Democratic senators have held a dozen fundraisers for Johnson since the senator suffered a brain hemorrhage last December. They include Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada; New York Sen. Charles E. Schumer, the chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee; Edward M. Kennedy of Massachusetts; Evan Bayh of Indiana; and Jeff Bingaman of New Mexico.

The extent of this early surrogate fundraising will be known by April 15, the deadline for Johnson’s campaign to submit campaign finance reports that detail receipts and expenditures in the first three months of this year.

Check out the whole article.

UPDATE:  The Yankton Press & Dakota also has a story today about Johnson's fundraising.

Sen. Cornyn: Red state Dems an "endangered species"

The Washington Times has an article today headlined "For Democrats in red states, 2006 daunting."  Excerpt:

"They have something to worry about, and they need look no farther than Tom Daschle," said Sen. John Cornyn, Texas Republican, referring to this month's defeat of the Senate minority leader from the red state of South Dakota, which Mr. Bush won by 22 percentage points.

"Any Democratic senator running for re-election in a state where the president did extremely well has got to know they are an endangered species," he said.

Dems hold grudge against Frist

An editorial from yesterday's edition of the New York Times headlined "Senator Frist Tightens the Screws" discusses the ramifications of Frist's visit to South Dakota to campaign for John Thune.  Excerpt:

But nastiness is in the air as the new Congress limbers up. Democrats vow to never forget Dr. Frist's foray into South Dakota to help unhorse his counterpart, Tom Daschle, the minority leader, whose farewell speech was boycotted by a victorious, decidedly unsentimental majority. Dr. Frist, who many expect to run for president next time, seems beyond the range of minority Democrats, but not G.O.P. moderates seething at the rules change.