The Winner: Nate Silver?

Judging by the dour mood on Fox and their discussion of the exit polls, this is NOT going to be a late night.  Indeed, it does look like turnout was more like 2008 than all the conservative poll critics claimed.  Assuming exit polls are bascially correct.  The exit polls are sometimes wrong and tend to over estimate the Democratic electorate, so there is a thin reed of hope for Romney partisans.  So far, looking like an Obama night.

Update: I thought that Romney going to Pennsylvania was silly.  I thought it was more a sign of weakness than a sign of strength.  I was right.

Update 2: I guess the people of South Dakota REALLY don't want the legislature to get paid much for travel.  Very early the only ballot measures that seem likely to pass are the balanced budget amendment and cement fund amendment.  Referred law 16 solidly looking like a NO.

Update 3: Wisconsin is Obama's.  Looks the the Schaff 290 electoral vote scenario might have been too conservative.

Update 4: Ha, ha.  Robert Costa Tweets, "Looks like Senate stays Dem."  Really, ya think?  BTW, I am now watching Big Bang Theory.  It's funnier than Bob Beckel.

Update 5: This is how you know it's a crap night for Romney.  Polls have been closed in North Carolina for two hours and still there's no declared winner.

Update 6: Perhaps I should time stamp these.  8:36.  Is Matt "McGovern" underperforming?  In other news.  South Dakota goes big for Romney and Noem.  And New Hampshire for Obama.  The fat lady is humming "Flight of the Bumble Bee."

Update 7: If you ever wanted to know what a major pooch screw looks like, look at the GOP Senate candidates tonight.

Update 8:  You know, the Senate map looks good for Republicans in two years.  Perhaps they can nominate a gaggle of middle aged white guys who spout off a lot about rape.

Update 9: Fox calls Ohio for Obama.  And that just about does it.

Update 10: By my count (and not all votes are in as we approach midnight) the Democrats will leap to seven members of the South Dakota Senate and seventeen members of the House. 

Comments

[JW]

Re: Update 8. No kidding! I though four years ago that the election of Barack Obama would bring a rebirth of the Republican party. Someday I will get used to being wrong about things.

[Warren Berry]

The status quo reigns supreme!!!

[Kyle Leon]

Actually, Nate Silver does have a degree in economics, though, and
graduated with honors. In addition, Silver is a math wizard....

[larry kurtz]

RT @BuzzFeedAndrew RT @mattmfm Just how bad was Rasmussen: CT -10, CO -7, IA -7, NH -7, WI -7, VA -5, NV -4, MI -4, FL -3, NC -3, MN -3, OH -2. Avg: 5.2% off.

[Donald Pay]

Even though the only poll that matters is the one on election day, I never understood the conservative position on debunking polling, based on turnout. I guess they were counting on a far more effective voter suppression effort.

If there was going to be a drop off in Democratic-leaning sporadic voters this time, the Republicans and right-leaning groups essentially assured those people would come out to vote just to defy their efforts to suppress their votes. By threatening to criminalize "voting while black" or "voting while Hispanic" or "voting while a student" into "voter fraud," they created a media circus which drove more and more blacks, Hispanics and students to the polls. Thanks Republicans, you made it far easier to beat you.

[Mark Anderson]

You should also bring up the fact that the Democrats, losing the house, actually won the popular vote for the house by about half a million. Gerrymandering lives on. Demographics are the wave that Mitt referred to, and it's horrible for Republicans. In Florida they say nominate Rubio next time, but that shows the Republicans are really blind demographically. I was never worried about this election, just followed Nate Silver and Sam Wang all the way.

[A.I.]

The loser: Karl Rove--no question mark needed.