Prediction

Obama: 50%, 290

Romney: 48%, 248

Vikings: 6-10

Also, the Democrats will likely break even in the Senate and even have a shot at gaining one or two seats.  They are almost certain to gain Maine (with independent Angus King caucusing with Democrats), Indiana (a total pooch screw by Republicans) and also quite possibly Massachusetts.  Republicans are only likely to gain North Dakota and Nebraska.  Republicans might take Montana and (less likely) Wisconsin.  Republicans completely screwed up Missouri and are significantly performing under expectation in Florida and Ohio.  Also, they foolishly chose the idiot George Allen to lose another Senate race in Virginia.  Once again in places like Indiana and Missouri the Tea Party has hurt Republicans in Senate races as much as helping them.  Republicans really need to think hard about how they recruit for Senate seats and who they get to manage them. In the past two election cycles Republicans have pissed away at least 5 Senate seats by running "not ready for prime time" candidates.  

Comments

[Stan Gibilisco]

Obama: 50%, 290
Looks about right.

Romney: 48%, 248
Looks about right.

Vikings: 6-10
Nooooooooo!

[Donald Pay]

I think the problem in the Republican Party is not that they put up idiots for office, as much as all candidates feel they have to take very extreme positions to appeal to the idiots in their party. Of course the idiots do tend to support idiots so mostly you end up with idiots running.

Tommy Thompson, a former Governor and formerly pretty bipartisan, may lose to a liberal lesbian Congresswoman because, like Mitt, he's had to take positions that are way out of the mainstream. Of course, Thompson's investments in companies that are supplying uranium to help build Iran's nuclear weapon didn't help his cause.

Wisconsin, I think, is going for Obama, because he's a centrist, and because voters can trust he's for the middle class and for more manufacturing, which appeals to the Fox Valley, the key to winning the state. Romney may be too much the CEO to win over the Fox Valley working man.

[Jon S]

Yes, Obama is a centrist. And that is why he had the most partisan voting record in the Senate. Because of his centrism.

[Donald Pay]

Health care mandate---Republican idea
Strong military---traditional Republican strength
Trade agreements---traditional Republican position
Tax cuts for small business/middle class---traditional Republican idea

The reason you seem to think Obama is a lefty is because you are so far to the right that anything in the center looks left. Your extremism blinds you to reality.

[larry kurtz]

South Dakota helped to lead the repeal of the Volstead Act: that would be impossible in today's chemical toilet:

http://prohibitionrepeal.com/history/21st.asp

[mike]

I am a bit surprised to see you call George Allen an idiot Prof. Schaff. Why do you feel that way? Genuinely curious here.