Given all the weirdness in the polling and the who knows what it means effect of Hurricane Sandy, I have been worried about my Election Shaman. One more day and I was going to start checking bars, hospitals, and morgues. Not to worry. He showed up tonight tanned, rested, and ready. He was smoking a big Cuban (I didn't ask him where he got it).
ES shook his weathered bag and dumped the bones right out on my bamboo cutting board. He swears that they are made from the thigh bones of a Tammany Hall fixer who was crushed under the weight of fraudulent ballots. Anyway, he quickly pointed out a half-circle of stones in one corner of the spread. "Dat," said he, "is the arc of enthusiasm." I asked about what looked like a wavy line down center right. "Dis", he said, "is dee independents". After a long pause during which my inner ears began to itch, he finally said: "Romney." Pressed a bit more, he predicted an Electoral College win for Mitt of 315 to 223.
"Wait a minute", I objected; "aren't those Michael Barone's predictions?" My Shaman just smiled and said "dis Michael must be a very wise man." Okay, what about the Senate? "Not so bad a pouch screw as the Republicans deserve." I asked the Shaman if he could give me that in numbers. He said he could. I stared at him for a while and then asked for the numbers. "No change." And the House? "Republicans gain a few seats."
I am beginning to wonder what I pay this guy for. Oh, yeah, so I don't have to make predictions. Obviously, I hope my Shaman (and Michael Barone) is right. I think that is entirely possible. All the polling and analysis and wishful thinking come down to this one line from the CNN/ORC poll's note on methodology.
Among those likely voters, 41% described themselves as Democrats, 29% described themselves as Independents, and 30% described themselves as Republicans.
The CNN poll calls the election a tie. It is based on a sample of likely voters in which self-described Democrats outweigh Republicans by eleven percent. That is to say that CNN predicts a tie if Democrats increase their turnout advantage over 2008 by a third. This looks to me like utter nonsense. If Democrats really turnout is really a larger portion of the total than 2008, Obama will win in a landslide.
On the other hand, the PPP poll shows a five point lead for Obama in Ohio based on a Democratic advantage over Republicans of eight points. That is large enough to absorb a Romney win among independents.
Meanwhile, we have three polls with very large samples (Gallup, Pew, and Rasmussen) showing Republicans at parity or (Rasmussen) with a significant advantage. Here's John Nolte from Breitbart:
According to Twitter's invaluable NumbersMuncher, Rasmussen correctly predicted 2008 would be a D+7 election and incorrectly predicted 2010 would be D+3. (2010 was D+0, or even, so Rasmussen gave an edge to Democrats they didn't have.)
That would seem to me to be the bottom line. If the Democratic turnout advantage is under 5%, Romney wins the national popular vote. If Mitt wins the popular vote by more than a couple of percentage points, he wins Ohio and my Shaman is right about the Electoral College. If the Democratic advantage is what so many polls seem to find (or assume) then Obama gets four more years.
Putting my political scientist hat on for a bit, this is a very interesting election. We really don't know what is going to happen today. That is not a terrible thing. Let the wheel spin.
315 for Romney? Now that's an outlier.
Posted by: caheidelberger | Tuesday, November 06, 2012 at 07:51 AM
That Willard Romney will be slaughtered in the state he 'governed' means that George McGovern wins today.
Posted by: larry kurtz | Tuesday, November 06, 2012 at 08:03 AM
Whatever.
I suspect we may be able to sit on the edge of our chairs tonight...but a majority of South Dakotans may again demonstrate their faith in irrelevant mythology and vote Republican. I can see why T. Denny Sanford and friends might do that rationally, but don't quite understand Republicans on Mainstreet and township roads continuing to support a party that disregards their real-world interests.
Posted by: Douglas Wiken | Tuesday, November 06, 2012 at 11:01 AM
We vote Republican, Douglas because what Romney is proposing is in our best interests. What the Obama machine is proposing is more of the same. More of the same is sky high unemployment, sky high deficits, continued lack of working with the opposition, and a health care fiasco that will bankrupt the US even faster. At least Romney has been giving us reasons to vote for him. The best Obama can do is tell us why we should vote against Romney. Not much of a reason, is it?
Posted by: duggersd | Tuesday, November 06, 2012 at 01:16 PM
""The apus (gods of the hills in indigenous mythology) tell us (Barack) Obama will be reelected," predicted Juan Osco, known as the Shaman of the Andes on San Cristobal hill overlooking Lima."
http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2012/11/06/ayahuasca_2012_hallucinating_peruvian_shamans_see_an_obama_win.html
Posted by: larry kurtz | Tuesday, November 06, 2012 at 01:28 PM
Concrete-jungle number-shaman (Nate Silver) says there is only a 9.1% chance your voodoo mojo man is reading dem bones right, KB.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
Don't give him that yaya bonus just yet, bra.
Posted by: Bill Fleming | Tuesday, November 06, 2012 at 03:34 PM
I'm impressed by the quality of information with this website. There are a lot of good tools
Posted by: drdre | Wednesday, November 07, 2012 at 02:53 PM
Thanks for the advice, Bill. He left before I got back to town.
Posted by: Ken Blanchard | Wednesday, November 07, 2012 at 10:01 PM