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Monday, October 08, 2012


larry kurtz

President Obama firming lead in Minnesota:

There's an overwhelming sense in Minnesota as elsewhere that Romney won last week's debate. 64% think he was the victor to only 19% who say Obama. But unlike in other places it hasn't led to a big improvement in Romney's image. Just 42% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 53% with a negative one. That's actually slightly worse than a month ago when he was at 43/51."


Donald Pay

I got polled by Quinnipiac-NYTimes-CBS poll yesterday. This is the third time in my life I've gotten polled by a legitimate polling outfit. Good, even-handed questions included questions about whether I watched the Presidential debate who won the debate, which candidate I would vote for if the vote were held today, issues most important to me, which candidate would solve problems on certain issue areas best, questions about whether the VP choices were qualified, then some Wisconsin questions and some demographic info. I thought about trying to fudge my answers a la Romney, but ended up being honest a la Obama.

They called my cell phone, which indicates to me they are trying to get an honest reading of the pulse of the electorate here in Wisconsin. Many people here don't have land lines anymore.

My prediction is that Romney throwing the conservatives under the bus during the debate will help him with women. The conservatives will stay with him because where are they going to go if they really want Obama out. The fact that his debate performance was more performance than honest is something I gave as a reason for saying Obama won the debate.

larry kurtz

Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight:

With further gains by Romney today, we now have Obama as a ~70/30 favorite, same as before conventions.



One of the things you will start noticing is that polls tend to become more accurate as the election nears. Nobody remembers the poll that shows a candidate way ahead or behind in September, but they do start to remember what the polls were saying just before the election. I like Romney's position right now. That debate, btw did wonders for him. Instead of being defined by President Obama, people had a chance to see him as he is, much like Reagan and Carter. I am thinking The One is sort of wishing he did not have to debate again.

larry kurtz

Hey, Dougie: let me wash yer feet with my hair. As long as we're all squishy and feelie: if the first debate looks like Bush/Kerry 2004, remember Cheney/Edwards? Kinda creepy:


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