Romney Ahead

The band plays on, doesn't it? Last month's dismal jobs reports were followed by reports of dismal GDP growth.

The White House predicts this year's federal budget deficit will end up at $1.2 trillion, marking the fourth consecutive year of trillion dollar-plus deficits during President Barack Obama's administration.

The bleak figures, while expected, are sure to add fuel to the already heated presidential campaign, in which Obama's handling of the economy and the budget is a main topic. Friday's release came as the government announced that U.S. economic growth slowed to an annual rate of just 1.5 percent in the second quarter of this year, as consumers cut back sharply on spending.

Well, at least something is growing robustly, even if it's the public debt. On that note, let's take a look at the polls.

The RCP average gives Obama a lead nationally of 1.1%. That's an average of seven polls. Obama's best showing is the NBC poll, which gives him a lead of six points (49-43%). Romney's best showing is the Rasmussen poll, which gives Romney a lead of 5 points (49-44%). Gallup has it tied 46% each.

Gallup has a very large sample, reports a five day average, and has been using the same methodology all year. That filters out most of the noise over time. It does, however, sample registered voters. Rasmussen has fairly large samples over two days, and filters for likely voters.

The only other poll to target likely voters is NPR, which gives Obama a two point lead. NPR's sample is 36% Democrat, 31% independent, and 29% Republican. That assumes that Democrats will enjoy a turnout advantage over Republicans of 7%.

That is as great as 2008 and is considerably larger than the trend of the last 25 years. Indeed, it is larger than the percentage of registered voters identifying as Democrats in all but one major poll. This comes at a time when Republicans enjoy a pronounced advantage in enthusiasm, as I noted in the last post. The only reason to assume such an advantage is that one doesn't want to confirm the Rasmussen results.

The race is somewhere between a dead heat and a two or three point Romney lead. If the election were held today, Romney would win.

Comments

[Dave]

"This comes at a time when Republicans enjoy a pronounced advantage in enthusiasm"

Yes, the GOPers are enthusiastically getting ready to hold their noses as they go to the polls...

[larry kurtz]

I made a butt-load in the market, Kenny: how much do you want for this blog?

http://www.google.com/finance?client=ob&q=NASDAQ:SIRI

Obama in a landslide.

[Bill Fleming]

Larry, I like it better when the little kid in the commercial calls it a "pantload."

[Ed]

Amazing. Here we go again. How is it that someone of your intellect, and I would presume knowledge, can so arrogantly announce the winner of the election based on a handful of bias polls that mostly lie within the margin of error.

Look, I know who you want to win. Honestly, I'm leaning in the same direction. But how do you expect to convince or gain readers of this blog when you make such a absolute prediction without any serious factual evidence. Given the difficulty that Romney is having in some of the most important swing states, I can't understand where you get your confidence.

How about, 'If the election were held today, I believe Romney has a better than 50/50 chance of winning.'. Now that's a statement I might get behind.

I made a similarly arrogant pronouncement in the comment section of your last post, but it was just that...a comment. Tone it back a bit...stop letting your severe bias cloud your judgement...and I might stick around and promote this site among other more prominent ones. If that's not what you're after, and all you're trying to do is preach to the choir, then best of luck!

[Stan Gibilisco]

Dave, you got that right.

[Wavettore]

“About the conspiracy:
9/11 ("false flag" attack planned by Bush & co.)
7/7 "false flag" in London (Blair seals the Pact with Bush)
The War in Iraq
The next expansion of the territory of Israel.
The future World collapse of the financial system
All these are not individual events but instead part of the Zionist Plan
The interference of Crossroads GPS (the most powerful Zionist group) during the next US elections will have one sure result at the expense of Barack Obama.
The new World War of Religions is already planned behind the backs of all people which will be forced to fight for their own Countries in their obligation as citizens
First in history, this worldwide crisis was provoked through a terror event (9/11) plotted by a US president, George Bush.
This was to destabilize the equilibrium of all Countries and trigger a chain of events almost unavoidable all of them part of the same Plan.
Many simultaneous rebellions stirred up in Arab Countries will benefit in the end only the State
of Israel with the expansion of its territory
while...
in Europe and in the US, the financial resources "like magic" will disappear through bailouts, tax cuts and elaborated emergency maneuvers which will be ruled only to appear beneficial for those Countries but instead appositely designed for their collapse (except for England that will push Europe over the precipice).
It is closer than you think
Stock markets and Treasury bonds will ...... "freeze".
The old economy will get to .... "the last stop"
The Internet will have ... "its plug pulled".
Massive poverty will bring chaos and anarchy while the lack of effective governments will set the stage for one World Tyranny
It will be just from chaos that one voice will rise with the promise to fix all and everyone.
That will be the forked tongue of the New World Order”
There is only one Solution.
www.wavevolution.org

[Donald Pay]

I'm not sure why the slowing economy is spun the way you do. People aren't fooled.

In fact the economy is following the path that both the left and the right had predicted without a more robust federal response. This is what the Republican Party wanted and did their best to bring about. It is what most of the Democrats had said would happen with Republican fool-dragging on necessary federal economic policies. Republican sabotage of the economy has worked, and it isn't any surprise.

Where the Republicans are held accountable for their efforts to sink the economy and the middle class, they are trailing, and badly. This election will be won or lost in the swing states. What the polls say nationally don't matter. And the swing states, where both Romney and Obama are bringing their arguments, are trending ever more Democratic. When people hear the arguments, they turn away from Romney.

[duggersd]

Ed, if you look at the "biased" polls, you will find most of them are biased towards Obama. The only one "biased" towards Romney is Rassmussen, yet Rassmussen has a very good track record. I believe if you take out the bias (what is the plural?), you will find Romney does indeed have a small, but growing lead. Donald would have you believe that Obama is going to win in the electoral college, but that is going to be a very difficult thing for him to do if he indeed loses the popular vote by 2 or 3%. Since 1824, there have been 4 Presidential elections in which the candidate who won the popular vote lost in the electoral college. If you add them up, they total less than 1 million votes. W had the largest loss at a little over 1/2 million. Gore had about 48.5% and Bush about 48%. It would be very difficult indeed for Bush to have won with a percentage of 47 and Gore with 49. Oh yeah, BTW, Bush did win Florida.

[Ken Blanchard]

Ed. Maybe your medication needs to be adjusted. I made no predictions. I just described how I see the polls with arguments and evidence behind my views.

Donald: yes, on your planet, a trillion and a half deficit every year is an insufficiently robust federal response. On your planet, national polls don't matter. As a note of clarification, I am concerned with planet Earth.

[Dave]

At least Ed is honest about where he stands...

[Dave]

Ken, may I suggest http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/ ? they have an objectivity factor that exceeds most expectations. Unless of course you think Drudge or Breitbart are objective... I mean you seem to be addicted to polls and not really have a good understanding of their overall implications and all...