Potluck

I note this headline from USAToday:

Woman accused of selling her baby for a truck and meth

In my home state of Arkansas, one of those transactions would count as a felony. The other would count as commerce. In a closely related story, Anthony Weiner was considering a run for mayor of New York. Apparently, the Weiner pulled out.

On a slightly more serious note, I see that the CBS/NYT poll has Romney one point ahead of Obama nationally, among registered voters. CBS calls this a "dead heat" and "effective tie". In fact, it is an "effective" Romney lead, since Romney is likely to do better among actual voters than theoretical voters.

I wouldn't put much stock in this poll, but it is interesting.

The president's supporters are more likely to strongly back their candidate. Fifty-two percent [of Obama voters] strongly favor Mr. Obama, while just 29 percent of Romney voters strongly back the presumptive Republican nominee.

No surprise there, with my insertion. Romney will never be as sexy as Obama. However:

Republicans are more enthusiastic than Democrats when it comes to voting in this election, though just one in three registered voters overall are more enthusiastic than they were in the past. Roughly half of Republicans say they are more enthusiastic compared to past elections - up from 36 percent in March - while just 27 percent of Democrats say the same.

That, of course, is the bottom line. It doesn't matter, electorally speaking, how much you love the one or the other, unless you are prepared to vote. Now consider these two paragraphs:

Fifty-four percent of registered voters cite the economy and jobs as "extremely" important in their presidential vote, more than any other issue. Here Romney has the edge: 49 percent of registered voters say he would do a better job handling the economy and jobs, while 41 percent cite Mr. Obama…

Mr. Obama's overall approval rating stands at 44 percent, with 46 percent disapproving. His approval rating on the economy is just 39 percent – 55 percent disapprove – and his approval rating on foreign policy is 41 percent. His approval rating on the economy has dropped five points since April.

A 44/46% approval-disapproval rating overall and a 39/55% approval-disapproval rating on the issue that registered voters consider "extremely important" looks like bad news for the incumbent.

I put more stock in the Gallup poll at this point, simply because it is consistent in method over time. Gallup has Obama's approval rating "effectively" tied, with 46% approving, 47% disapproving. The poll gives Obama a two point lead, nationally.

The Obama campaign is pulling out all the stops to define Romney as a cannibal capitalist before the voters get a really good look at him. It's pretty clear that it isn't working. Romney and Obama are tied at about 46 or 47% each. I continue to think that it's Obama who has to change those numbers. If they continue into autumn, Romney wins.

Meanwhile, shadow Speaker Nancy Pelosi has apparently decided that the Democratic National Convention is one place that House Democrats don't want to be. From the Politico:

House minority leader Nancy Pelosi says Democratic members should stay home and campaign in their districts rather than go to the party's national convention in North Carolina.

"I'm not encouraging anyone to go to the convention, having nothing to do with anything except I think they should stay home, campaign in their districts, use their financial and political resources to help them win their election," Pelosi said in an exclusive interview for POLITICO Live's "On Congress," a new weekly show to be streamed live on POLITICO's website and broadcast on NewsChannel 8 on Wednesdays.

The California Democrat suggested that since Barack Obama is an incumbent, there is less of a need for Democrats to attend the convention.

That is a remarkable statement. It tells us what Pelosi thinks the game board looks like. The Democrats aren't playing for national power as a coherent party. They are playing for survival and it's every Congressperson for his or her self. The President, with his 46%, is on his own.

I can't help wondering whether the President could have counted on more support from Congressional Democrats if he had bothered to get to know some of them, instead of vanishing the moment the photo shoot was over.

Comments

[duggersd]

I find polls interesting. Until one looks at the internals in the poll, the final results need to be taken with a grain of salt. When I look at the various polls and see the different breakdowns for D/R/I and find the D's tend to be polled at a higher rate than what history tells us they will vote, I wonder whether the pollster has a result he is after and how the pollster can come up with the margin of error.
Several of the polling organizations seem to weight the polls more heavily for the Democrats. When I see that Romney is about even or ahead, I figure Romney is ahead by at least two points more. Considering the few "undecided" voters out there, I expect them to break more to Romney than Obama, based upon past history. This tells me Obama is in real trouble. But I am no expert on polls. It would be nice to hear someone who is a little less biased explain why pollsters are willing to take a hit on their credibility in order to paint a picture that is a little rosier for Obama than what it really is.

[larry kurtz]

Watching Willard Romney writhe under the pressure of democracy is nothing short of exquisite: pity the poor politician who chooses to join in his misery as he leads the GOP's last campaign before it dies a slow whimpering death at the polls.

[larry kurtz]

Dougie, Rasmussen reports that the President is leading in Ohio, nationwide:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

[larry kurtz]

Willard plummeting in Pennsylvania:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/pennsylvania/election_2012_pennsylvania_president

[DeSanon]

"CBS/NYT poll has Romney one point ahead of Obama nationally, among registered voters. CBS calls this a "dead heat" and "effective tie". In fact, it is an "effective" Romney lead, since Romney is likely to do better among actual voters than theoretical voters.

Except that the only "registered voters" who still answer their home phone when an unknown number comes up are octogenarians... And they make up what percentage of the vote?

[duggersd]

Also, look at the internals of that poll. I believe you will see a model of D/R/I that resembles the 2008 election as opposed the the 2010 election in which the D/R was essentially the same. Republican enthusiasm is up compared with the Democrats as well. I do not believe this is because Republicans can hardly wait to vote for Romney but more along the lines they can hardly wait to get rid of Obama.

[Religion Jeans outlet]

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