Walker Wins 2 Live Blogging

9:00p At this hour MSNBC and Fox News have both called the Wisconsin recall election in favor of Governor Scott Walker and his Lt. Governor, Rebecca Kleefisch.

9:15p The Huffington Post (Pollster) site has the best monitor I have seen. In addition to coloring the counties, there is a page comparing Walker's results now with the 2010 results. Walker seems to be improving his results in most of the counties.

9:30p With 50% of the precincts reporting, Walker is leading Barrett by 17%. I assume that margin will decline as urban numbers come in, but it does seem likely that Walker will improve his results over 2010.

Blasts from the Past. Here are some comments from my cherished interlocutors, from a post of August 12^th, 2011.

Donald Pay: "Walker's recall is guaranteed."

Bill Fleming: "I think Walker is toast, KB."

Ken Blanchard: "Donald: it seems like only yesterday that you were assuring us that Feingold's reelection was guaranteed."

9:45p Once again, exit polling seems to have failed miserably. The exit polls shot a ray of hope toward the anti-Walker coalition in the first hour after the real polls closed, showing a 50/50 outcome. This is very unfortunate for both professional and amateur political nerds, for they are the only information we have on the breakdown of voters. It seems pretty clear that we can't rely on anything these polls tell us.

10:00p With 71% of the precincts reporting, Walker's lead is about 15%. About a third of the results for Milwaukee and Dane counties are in, with Barrett leading but well below his 2010 totals.

10:20 Barrett just conceded. Walker's lead is down to 10% with 80% reporting.

10:30 Ann Althouse points out an interesting comparison: this map, showing which way the counties went in the State Supreme Court and this one, showing the current county results from today. Wisconsin got a lot redder.

11:05 with over 90% of the districts reporting, Walker is holding a lead of about 9%. I am closing down the live blogging and going on to do a wrap-up post.

Comments

[Jon S.]

I think Donald was saying that Walker has perfect memory, while Bill was trying to say he likes Johnny Walker with his toast. Blue Label.

[Stan Gibilisco]

Hope bleeds eternal.

[Bill Fleming]

Yeah, I suck at predicting election outcomes.

[Ken Blanchard]

Jon & Stan: Whiskey and blood. That is as good a metaphor for tonight as any I can come up with.

[Ken Blanchard]

Bill: I'm not terrible at it, but I am subject to wishful thinking like most sentient beings. Mostly I am protected by a lack of courage from making predictions.