Arkansas & Kentucky follow West Virginia

With 73% of the precincts reporting, President Obama has won the Arkansas Democratic Primary.

Obama        59%

Wolfe            41%

The story was similar in Kentucky.

Obama        58%

Uncommitted    42%

That makes three states in which the President failed to get more than 60% in the Democratic primary, running against a prison inmate (in West Virginia), an unknown, and "none of the above". It's hard to read much into this, but it means something. The WaPo has this:

One easy explanation — and the one regularly espoused by some Democrats — for Obama's struggles in Appalachia and portions of the South is simply that some white voters will not vote for an African American for president.

But although no one doubts that race may be a factor, exit polling suggests that the opposition to Obama goes beyond it.

And seasoned political observers who have studied the politics of these areas say race may be less of a problem for Obama than the broader cultural disconnect that many of these voters feel with the Democratic Party.

Broad patterns in elections reflect slower but equally broad shifts in the electorate. There is a lot here for Republicans to worry about, but it can't be good news for Democrats when an incumbent president of their party is running below sixty percent in state primaries.

Comments

[caheidelberger]

Can we compare these primary numbers to past primaries where the incumbent faces no real challenger? It seems primaries like these offer an easy chance for Dems to register displeasure with the President without really abandoning him. This isn't Kennedy vs. Carter 1980. Voters know their primary vote is moot. I suspect a lot of those alternative votes would disappear if folks thought those votes meant a convict or the GOP nominee would actually win.

And do we have turnout numbers, and comparisons of vote totals on the Presidential line with other races on those primary ballots?

[larry kurtz]

Crackers from the same barrel never fall far from the tree: right, Ken?

[Donald Pay]

Romney failed to even break 50 percent in most of his primaries. In many of them he was under 30 percent. Clearly most Republicans would prefer someone else. They are stuck the Bain billionaire.

[Ken Blanchard]

Romney was facing real competitors. Obama is facing nobody, and nobody is doing rather well.