Let me briefly break blogging silence to commend to readers this post by Nate Silver of the NYT's 538 blog. It gives an effective guide to viewing polls and handicapping the presidential race, at least through mid-summer. One of the most tempting things is to overread data to suit one's prejudices, and Mr. Silver gives us a sober guide on how to avoid that error.
My own view right now is that Mr. Obama holds a slight but sufficient lead. Probably if the election were held today he'd win by 4-6 points. Two addendums to that. An incumbent president who at this point is only marginally ahead has plenty of reason to be sweating. Also, certain fundamentals (economic, presidential approval, right track/wrong track) do not do the president any favors. Still, I cautiously place my bets with Mr. Obama because I think he has a much easier route to 270 electoral votes than does Mitt Romney. Last thought: Once we get well into the summer, pay close attention to Ohio and Pennsylvania. Obama can win without Ohio, but Romney probably (probably!) can't. On the other hand, if Obama is losing Pennsylvania (which has gone Democrat for president since 1992, but has been hit hard by economic slowdown and Obama is not super popular there) that probably means he is losing the election.
How refreshing, Prof. Schaff! A cocktail of your choice at any watering hole in South Dakota to you, sir: you know how to find me.
Posted by: larry kurtz | Friday, April 20, 2012 at 05:18 PM
Larry, you can find me at my "watering hole" almost any weekday morning around 11:00. It's the pool at the Deadwood Rec Center. I'm the one who looks like a really slow 17-year-old in the water, patiently swimming laps, methodically flooding my system with the drug of choice (endorphins) ...
Come in and surprise me someday!
Got an offer on that property south of Lead. Sure hope it goes. I'd like to take the cash and buy stock in Apple Computer.
Posted by: Stan Gibilisco | Saturday, April 21, 2012 at 12:50 AM
Oops, try again. More on topic. Obama will win. The Republicans keep self-destructing. It's as if they're addicted to some sort of poison ...
Posted by: Stan Gibilisco | Saturday, April 21, 2012 at 12:54 AM
Stan, that is an interesting prediction. However, I am seeing the might Mo switching to the Republicans and Romney. Since Santorum has dropped, Romney has a slight lead in most of the polls. This is not to say it is in the bag, but there is reason to hope. I suspect the Republicans are going to rally around him. If Santorum ever quits sulking and endorses him, I believe Romney will gain faster. The biggest problem as I see it is there are too many people who rely upon what the Democrats give to them. In order for the Dems to win, they have to take money from one group of people and give it to another. If you don't believe me, just look at the pounding Paul Ryan is getting. At least the Republican House has offered a vision. The Democrats will not offer anything because if they do and people see what the results will be, they cannot win. They have to lie/obfuscate the truth in order to get votes.
Posted by: duggersd | Saturday, April 21, 2012 at 07:20 AM
Barnes, consider self-immolation.
Posted by: larry kurtz | Saturday, April 21, 2012 at 04:59 PM
Larry, I do not normally respond to blithering idiots, but in this case I will make an exception. I truly hope you do not break your neck when you sit down.
Posted by: duggersd | Sunday, April 22, 2012 at 06:48 AM