Obama’s Bad New York Times Poll

The latest New York Times/CBS poll is getting a lot of attention. Here is the money quote from the accompanying article:

Despite improving job growth and an extended Republican primary fight dividing his would-be opponents, President Obama is heading into the general election season on treacherous political ground, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll.

At a time of rising gas prices, heightened talk of war with Iran and setbacks in Afghanistan, Mr. Obama's approval rating dropped substantially in recent weeks, the poll found, with 41 percent of respondents expressing approval of the job he is doing and 47 percent saying they disapprove — a dangerous position for any incumbent seeking re-election.

That is bad news with some excusive padding stuffed into the middle. The Times might have also pointed out the conventional wisdom that the debate over contraception insurance was supposed to boost the President in the polls. Well, the news isn't all bad on that front.

Mr. Obama appears to be retaining much of his gains among important demographic groups, erasing inroads that Republicans made in 2010, especially among women. But his falling approval rating in the last month extended to his handling of both the economy and foreign policy, the poll found. And his weakening position cut across all major demographic groups, even among those with which he has kept an edge over his Republican challengers: independents, moderates, college graduates and younger voters.

It is difficult to see how Mr. Obama could really be "retaining much of his gains among important demographic groups," if "his weakening position cut across all major demographic groups." But if, as the Times says, he is retaining gains among women it might be that the contraception controversy did him some good. That, however, is not what their own poll shows.

In February, the President's approval rating among men was 45% and among women 53%. In the March poll, the numbers are 41% each. That's a loss of four points among men and 12 points among women! How, exactly, is that "retaining his gains"?

The President's approval rating declined 8 points among Independents, down to 39%. He lost 9 points among moderates (56-47%); a devastating 18 points among 30 to 44 year olds (52-34%); 16 points among households with yearly incomes between $30 and $50,000 (50-34%). What Demographic group is he retaining? I could only see a gain among voters making more than $75,000 a year. That'll do the trick!

The paragraph above is a textbook case of what Mickey Kaus calls "cocooning". That means spinning lies to protect oneself from reality. Of course, it's only one poll, and some others.

Sharp as the drop in Mr. Obama's approval rating was in the Times/CBS News poll, it was not in isolation. The latest ABC News/Washington Post poll, released on Monday, also reported a drop in Mr. Obama's overall approval rating, to 46 percent from 50 percent last month. The latest tracking poll from Gallup, also released Monday, showed Mr. Obama with an approval rating of 49 percent.

The Times poll is devastating. To be sure, "polls capture only a particular moment in time, and can be influenced by the way questions are asked or the mix of people who are surveyed," as the Times says, in a desperate attempt to discredit its own findings. Did the Times suddenly change its polling language to the disadvantage of the President?

I am not counting on anything right now. Maybe the economy is about to zoom upward. Maybe Obama will send Seal Team 6 to kill the Joker. Maybe Mitt Romney will turn out to be as bad as Santorum and Gingrich say he is. But if these polls are right, this looks like the beginning of an incumbent collapse of Jimmy Carter proportions. It's no wonder that the Times is telling lies about what its own poll shows.

I don't know what drove the President's numbers down so dramatically over the last month. Gas prices are indeed a factor that every voter with a car can understand. However, no single factor is likely to deeply wound a candidate unless the voters are already disposed to dump him. If they are so disposed, so much as a wet rabbit may be enough to start the muddy surface sliding downhill.

One thing is for certain. The conventional wisdom that the contraception debate would doom Republicans is not yet confirmed.

Comments

[john davidson]

Ken - Here is what the WSJ and NBC are reporting:

When Journal/NBC pollsters asked more specifically whether the government should require religious institutions to provide such contraception coverage—including the morning-after pill, which would be covered under the rule—opposition rose further. Americans overall were opposed 49% to 34%, and women were opposed by 46% to 35%.

"These questions provide a pretty good road map for how the Republicans can frame the issue to their advantage," said Jay Campbell, a Democratic pollster who helps conduct the Journal/NBC News survey.

Dude (BO) lost this one. Can't even get the women. Saw this one coming.

[john davidson]

Hey Larry - What do you make of this?:

http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/declaring-war-newborns_633421.html

jd

[Bill Fleming]

The poll is most likely an outlier. It happens sometimes:
http://www.pollingreport.com/obama_job.htm

[lynn]

Well, O's last resort will be to manufacture a crisis in this country, declare martial law, and suspend the election. And don't doubt for a minute he would hesitate to do just that if thought he would lose the election - this is how dictators act and how he has been acting more and more.

[duggersd]

Or a canary in a mine. Or a trend. What is interesting is this is a NYT/CBS poll. I believe this poll is often weighted heavily towards the Democrats, skewing the results.

[Ken Blanchard]

Bill: keep a hopin'. You might well be right, but the Times itself pointed out that it was largely confirmed by other polls. There seems little doubt that the President's approval dropped significantly over the last month.

[Bill Fleming]

Yes, I'm looking for those "other polls" KB. So far, I'm not really seeing it. Gallup took a dip a while back but seems to have come back up (it's usually the least favorable to Obama of all of them). http://www.pollingreport.com/obama_job1.htm The others are as per my link above. http://www.pollingreport.com/obama_job1.htm

[larry kurtz]

Opinions are like recta: everybody has one, jd. We can debate the merits of a lone wolf murdering civilians to end a foreign war, too.

The NYT poll came across my twitter feed a couple of days ago. The President will destroy whichever smegma producer emerges from the slime to 'challenge' him. It is increasingly evident by the propaganda spewed by the earth hater blogs like the War Toilet postings of late.

[Bill Fleming]

...forgot to note this, KB. As far as Gallup's polling goes (don't know if we've shared this link before) you can see, by clicking on Jimmy Carter that Obama is now passing him by at this point on the timeline. Also note he's about on track with GWB.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/presidential-approval-center.aspx

[larry kurtz]

Here's a comment from one of my favorite Blogmorites, jd; succinct as it gets:

http://www.rapidcityjournal.com/app/blogs/politicalblog/?p=9200#comment-404619

[Ken Blanchard]

Bill: the CBS poll showed a similar dip. Unfortunately, I haven't found a poll with a demographic breakdown similar to the NYT's poll. Gallup is interesting. This is precisely the point where Carter and Bush 41 nosedived. If the NYT poll turned out to be right, it would mirror those events. Is this poll an outlier? I think that it probably is, but if I were part of the President's team I would be sweating bullets over the next month.

The President is doing a bit better in Gallup, with his approval rating slightly above his disapproval, but still below 50%. His rating with independents is only 44%. With Women, he is only at 51%. That's the good news poll!

[john davidson]

Larry - Not so sure it's the lone wolf, but you will decide.

[Ken Blanchard]

Dugger: the poll was weighted slightly in favor of registered Democrats/Republicans (296/268), but slightly in favor of Republican primary voters. The question is not the honesty of the poll but whether it is an outlier as Bill is a wishin and a hopin. I suspect that it may be that, but one can hardly be sure.

[Bill Fleming]

Yup. Best not to make too much of any one poll, tempting as it may be. I'm always intruiged by the Gallup chart, first because, for as long as we've lived, the sample size of past presidential races is really too small to draw anything but spitball comparisons. And second, because what I think I see is evidence that we used to be happier with our presidents in general in past years than we seem to be of late. In other words, approval of presidents in general appears to be trending down. Do you see that too, KB?

[Bill Fleming]

There's a little graph on the main page here, upper right. Not dispositive of course, but clearly indicative of the poll in question being an outlier. (DuggerSD, that's not the same as being an out and out liar, btw ;^)

[Ken Blanchard]

I wouldn't get too confident yet, Bill. Obama's numbers in Gallup just flipped negative again.

[Bill Fleming]

Yeah, I see that KB. Such a chaotic time.
But hey, now that good ol' Joe has started knocking heads together, maybe that will calm down a little.
The big concern for the GOP is most likely the gender gap and the Latino vote, don''t you think?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-insiders/post/the-gender-gap-is-back/2012/03/15/gIQA54iDFS_blog.html
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-03-16/republicans-seeking-hispanic-votes-risk-backlash-on-immigration

[Ken Blanchard]

Bill: it looks like both of us are wishin' and hopin'. What I hope is that, after the election, the White House is actually occupied for a change.