Iowa

It's just past midnight as I write. With 99.9% of Iowa's precincts reporting, Rick Santorum is leading Mitt Romney by fewer than 20 votes out of almost 61,000 votes between the two of them. Santorum and Romney will end up with about 24.5% each, with Ron Paul coming in third at somewhere at 21.5%. Newt Gingrich has a little over 13%, Rick Perry a little over 10%, and Bachman is at 5%.

The Press reports the Iowa caucus as if were something that a candidate can win by coming in first. Is this the case? Yes and no. Tonight's events will determine the selection of delegates to county caucuses and delegates from those events will meet at a state caucus, in June. The June convention will determine how many delegates represent each candidate at the National Convention.

In 2008, the results of the Iowa State Republican Caucus looked like this (from David Leip's excellent web page):

	Votes	Percent of Vote	Delegates
Mike Huckabee	40,841	34%	13
Mitt Romney	29,949	25%	10
Fred Thompson	15,904	13%	5
John McCain	15,559	13%	5
Ron Paul	11,817	10%	4

A few observations are in order. Mike Huckabee's decisive win in the popular vote, although it was only a plurality, turned him into a serious contender for the nomination. Huckabee would come in second in the number of delegates to the National Convention and third after Romney in the number of popular votes during the nominating process. However, neither he nor Romney came near to defeating John McCain, who captured 66% of the vote at the National Convention to Huckabee's 12% and Romney's 9%.

Nearly everyone commenting on the tube played up Santorum's showing tonight. If he wins one more vote than Romney, the Press will call that a victory. If he had come in second everyone will call it a tie. This is not political bias but professional bias. It makes the process seem more exciting.

It would not do to make light of this. Ron Paul will come out way ahead of where he was four years ago, but still in third place. No one expects him to have much of a future after Iowa. That means Santorum is now the only obstacle left between Romney and the nomination. Can Santorum win the nomination?

It's hard to see it. Barack Obama's 2008 Iowa victory propelled him into serious contention for the first time and that momentum lasted all the way to his victory in November. There were two reasons for this. One was that Obama was a uniquely exciting and exotic candidate. The other, more important factor was a deep seated animosity towards Senator Clinton among a wide swath of Democratic voters. Many Democrats viewed the Clintons as sell outs, hucksters who betrayed the hopes and dreams of their party. That same sentiment, incarnate in the body of one Ralph Nader, had earlier put George W. Bush in the White House.

Mitt Romney has never yet generated a great enthusiasm among Republicans at large and I doubt that he will do so before this November. In Iowa he looks poised to receive almost the same number of votes and the same 25% he won in that state in 2008. One way to look at that is that he gained no ground at all. However, if there are no signs of a Romney fever yet taking hold among Republicans, neither are there any signs of Romney-phobia. Republicans do not look upon Romney as any kind of traitor.

I bear no dislike of Rick Santorum but I do not see anything in him to energize the Republican electorate in the way that Barack Obama energized the Democrats last time round. Without a reservoir of anti-Romney sentiment to draw upon, I cannot seem him doing better than Mike Huckabee did against John McCain. I still think that Mitt Romney will be the Republican nominee.

If I'm right, the only question now is whether Santorum can mount enough of a challenge to fatally damage Romney. In 1976 Ronald Reagan came near to taking the nomination away from a sitting (if unelected) President. I believe that that did serious damage to Ford and helped Jimmy Carter win. Four years later Ted Kennedy did much the same to Carter, helping Reagan to win.

Governor Romney needs to knock Santorum out of the race early or at least secure well more than twice as many popular votes as Santorum in the various caucuses and primaries. If he does that, we will have a real contest in the fall classic. That is the thing to watch for now.

 

Comments

[larry kurtz]

I was with you until your last paragraph, Ken. You earth haters want a long primary season like we had last cycle where Obama and Clinton roused our base and ploughed McCain/Palin into the dustbin.

Santorum is going to be a force as I said back in August:

http://interested-party.blogspot.com/2011/08/earth-haters-debate.html

[Bill Fleming]

The wild card in your scenario could be Gingrich, KB. He's vowed to pound Romney into the dust. Who knows? He may become Santorum's secret sauce.

[Ken Blanchard]

Gingrich has had more than his fifteen minutes.

Kurtz: some people have the Jews to hate. You have the earth haters. Enjoy.

[Stan Gibilisco]

Romney is the tortoise. All the rest are hares.