Romney & Iowa

Every four years it's the same in Iowa. Stand in the court square of any small town and throw a tennis ball into the air. It will bounce off the skull of a journalist or anchor person. Iowa's privileged position as the first state to hold a nominating event is relatively recent (as are nominating events, if you mean by that primary elections and caucuses). Sooner or later we'll adopt a more rational calendar for the presidential election year, but for now Iowa gets its moment in the pale sun.

The MSM loves the Iowa caucus. It's a small state with cheap hotels that might determine the next occupant of a very expensive 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue address. That is a very big might, but also a very potent one. The 2008 Iowa caucus was the moment that Barack Obama emerged as a real alternative to Hillary Clinton on his way to the White House and Mike Huckabee emerged as a possible alternative to John McCain on his way to a talk show gig.

This year the MSM has gone off the rails about Iowa. Tune the TV to any cable news show and toss a tennis ball at the screen. You'll hit poll numbers for Rick Santorum. The designated non-Romney has been the story for months. Rick Perry, Herman Cain, and Newt Gingrich all got to try on their uniforms only to be put back on the bench. Just right now Rick Santorum and Ron Paul are hoping to be the neo-Huckabees.

This is nonsense. If Mitt Romney wins or comes in a close second in Iowa, he is well on his way to a dance on the floor of the Republican National Convention. Yesterday I drove along I-29 through the Western edge of Iowa and I noticed a tiny Ron Paul sign in the grass at the edge of every underpass. Clever, but unconvincing. Ron Paul has no chance of being the nominee. Santorum has less of a chance. Gingrich is falling faster than pork bellies.

Mitt Romney is going to be the Republican candidate in the 2012 presidential election. Republicans have a habit of nominating the next guy in line, and he's that guy. He also did what none of the other hopefuls did: he spent the last four years preparing for the next one. No Republican who might have given him a run for his money was willing to lay his money down.

If I am right, the next eight months are likely to be unusually boring for a presidential year, which is good for Mitt. Most Republicans will never love Mitt, but they will fall in line behind him. Things will only get interesting after the conventions. It may turn on the public perceptions of the economy next summer.

Meanwhile, I can't help noticing that President Obama's surge in the polls seems to have subsided, short of ever being more popular than not. Next year's campaign may be a race to the bottom.

Comments

[duggersd]

Romney is about my fourth or fifth choice of people who are running that I would want to be President. Even so, I will vote for him as Obama is my last choice, even behind Hillary Clinton. This election is so important because Obama is so dangerous to the well being of this wonderful country we have. I do not know whether the current slide can be halted. I do know if we do not get rid of that monstrosity of a law ironically called the Affordable Health Care Act, reform Medicare and Social Security, we will not recover. I was listening to a person claiming those three things will eat up all of the revenues in the future. Unless Americans start to change their ideas about what is an entitlement and what is a want, it is not going to change. I am not sure that will happen short of a major crash.

[larry kurtz]

Ken is right in that President Obama is executing the office from center-right. One piece of the context is that Sibby is right: South Dakota can only react to DC’s mandates to ensure that the money keeps coming quietly but perennially to this failed red state.

GFP and DENR wage continual war against what South Dakotans believe are entitlements to scorch the Earth.

Stuff has consequences. Earth extends beyond Sioux Falls; the effluent from that stuff is killing South Dakota lakes and watersheds.

It’s just that simple. Sorry you're so miserable, Doug; and yearning for a crash because the President is black is just not healthy.

[Donald Pay]

I expect there will be a lot of maneuvering going on in the Republican Party even if Romney wins Iowa and New Hampshire. I expect Romney to have considerable difficulty winning in Southern states, and the House Tea Party Republicans may pull stunts all year that will haunt the eventual nominee. And don't forget there are really goofy people in Republican leadership positions in states now. The cuckoo factor as well as petty corruption at the state level will blow back on any Republican nominee.

[jhm47]

Larry: I get so da** sick of you libs crying racism when anyone disagrees with the "One". Get another mantra to chant. This one is outdated and overused.

[duggersd]

Again, Larry, I am not miserable. I find it kind of funny coming from an idiot who complains about the state he lives in. One of these days you are going to sit too hard and break your neck, considering where your head is. Again, I do not normally respond to you and will not very often in the future. My grandfather always told me not to argue with idiots because people might not be able to tell the difference. I do not want to be suspected of being an idiot.

[larry kurtz]

I get so sick of being derided by cowardly commenters who hide behind pseudonyms...dugger is kinda juvenile for a purported adult earth hater, too, in my less-than-humble opinion.

Is that you, Meidinger, hiding in the weeds at TIO, too? And you were born in 1947? Kinda ballsy boinking a damaged waif like Kristi Noem, innit?

http://www.rapidcityjournal.com/app/blogs/outdoors/?p=5181#comment-143670

[Erik Sean Estep]

Happy New Year Everyone!
KB:
What do you think of the chances of Paul going the 3rd party route again? Your analysis of Iowa and the GOP race is spot on. It is going to be Romney and it always was going to be Romney. My thinking is that the Ron Paul nutters will feel very alienated from the GOP mainstream by the end of the race and there will *still* be a few other alienated conservatives. I don't think a Paul run is likely, but it shouldn't be ruled out, either.

[Ken Blanchard]

Larry: since I hide behind nothing, I will try to deride you more in the future.

Erik: who can tell what Ron Paul will do? I don't think a 3rd Party run is likely. Does Paul really want to be the Ralph Nader that puts Obama back into the White House?

Meanwhile, I wouldn't call Paul's supporters "nutters". Some of my best friends are Ron Paul supporters. I can't imagine him as President and I disagree with a lot of his positions, but it is good to have a dissident voice inside the party.

Thanks for the comment and happy new year to you and to all.

[ErikSeanEstep]

KB:
I'm sure there are some rational Ron Paul supporters but his views on the Fed are nutty and the Ron Paul Newsletter featured some racist filth. That being said, it is good to have dissident voices. He makes things interesting.
E.