No Confidence

I have argued that President Obama's reelection strategy is playing to his weaknesses rather than any strength he might have. Current polls back me up. It is remarkable that, while the President is campaigning full time, he hasn't bothered to tell us what he plans to do with four more years. What policies will he pursue? What problems face the nation for the rest of this decade? Maybe he will get around to this, but you might think that he would give us at least a hint?

It's pretty clear that the President does not intend to sell himself. He will run as the alternative to a demonized opposition. The primary theme so far has been what the Republicans call "class warfare" and the Democrats call "inequality." Vote for Obama because the other side will favor the 1% over you guys in the 99%. How's that workin' out?

Not so well. Oddly, perhaps, Americans are much less likely now to see their society as divided into the haves and the have nots. Consider this chart from Gallup:

That is a rather dramatic turnaround in public opinion. At the risk of over interpreting it, it may be that a sense of national peril has renewed our tendency to think that we are all in this together.

Democrats generally and the Obama Campaign in particular want to talk about inequality. That's not small potatoes, but inequality is a relationship not a state of ill or well-being, let alone does it make a job or not. What do you care about more: the statistical gap between the rich and the poor, or whether you get or keep a job? Most Americans, sensibly enough, care more about the latter. Again from Gallup:

What we want from the Federal Government are policies that will promote economic growth and opportunity. We are much less concerned how much richer someone else is.

That may help to explain why the flood of fairness talk issuing from the President's campaign isn't lifting his boat. An AP poll has this, from Real Clear Politics:

Obama's approval rating on his handling of the economy overall remains stagnant: 39 percent approve and 60 percent disapprove.

We can all see that the President is talking a lot about fairness but is doing nothing about the economy. He has no policy for job growth. He isn't working with Congress to produce one. Gradual improvements in job growth may help, but only if we think that the President had something to do with them. We don't.

For the first time, the poll found that a majority of adults, 52 percent, said Obama should be voted out of office while 43 percent said he deserves another term. The numbers mark a reversal since last May, when 53 percent said Obama should be re-elected while 43 percent said he didn't deserve four more years.

Obama's overall job approval stands at a new low: 44 percent approve while 54 percent disapprove. The president's standing among independents is worse: 38 percent approve while 59 percent disapprove.

Maybe the Republican nominee will prove so unpalatable to the electorate that even this guy seems best to stick with. That's a pitiful election strategy. It is Obama's strategy. It would be better for the Democrats if it fails miserably. If the Republicans should emerge a year from January with control of the White House and Congress, they will have to govern with no one to blame but themselves.

It's not as if Republicans have nothing to worry about. Congress's approval rating is so low you wonder if any incumbent's mom is going to vote for him or her. The one thing that Republicans in Congress have going for them is that they aren't Dubya or any other President around their necks.

Comments

[larry kurtz]

Good eye, Ken; we'll take it.

South Dakota Democrats: join me in supporting Ron Paul as the GOP nominee.

[jhm47]

"He hasn't bothered to tell us what he plans to do with four more years."

Well, there's a good reason for that. If the electorate knew his plans, he'd have absolutely NO chance of being re-elected. I see some pundits have accused BHO of being inept and incompetent. They are wrong. He is accomplishing just exactly what Soros and his billionaire elitist handlers are instructing him to do. Another four years will enable them to completely control this country through the manipulation of the currency, energy, and healthcare. How does rampant inflation sound to you, or $10 gasoline, 4X increases in electricity rates, or the much denied death panels? We'll have all of these, and more, if he is able to steal another election. Right now, ACORN, the unions, and many more of his far left minions are gearing up to fraudulently throw the election into chaos and disarray through disenfranchising white voters, and allowing the dead, illegal immigrants, and fictitious people to vote.

[Jimi]

If the economy is an ocean and the citizens are boats in that ocean....then the closer ones boat is to an Aircraft Carrier the higher all the other boats and Aircraft Carriers rise.

In the bazarro world of the left....only the federal government is allowed to be an Aircraft Carrier and everybody else should all be the same inflatable life raft dingy anchored to the Aircraft Carriers....you know so they aren't carried away by the big waves caused by the Aircraft Carriers......"it's for the childern."

[Stan Gibilisco]

Larry, Donald Trump will do the job (ensure Obama's re-election) just as well, and I suspect he's more likely to try it.

Jhm47, part of me believes that what you say is true. But why go to all that trouble when Ron Paul or Donald Trump could carry it off without any bloodshed?

[larry kurtz]

GOP coming apart at the seams. Can it survive?

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/12/another-gop-domino-falls-in-payroll-fight-after-wsj-cries-uncle.php

[Stan Gibilisco]

Survive? It's committing suicide!

[Dave]

The approval rating of Congress is dismally low. However, the House of Representatives is controlled by GOP Speaker John Boehner and a majority Republican caucus. But when "Fox News" publishes their story about the floundering body they accompany the piece with a picture of Democratic Rep. Nancy Pelosi. Boehner, et al, are nowhere to be seen.

This deception is even more unseemly when you take into account that it is the Republican Party that is held in far lower esteem that the Democrats. And particularly with regard to the current debate over the Payroll Tax, the American people are incensed that the GOP has refused to allow its extension to come up for a vote. The result will be that 160 million workers will get a tax increase beginning January 1. (credit to newscorpse)

[Bill Fleming]

Interesting that KB puts this post up just about the time Obama's numbers (and the economy's) are looking better than they have in a long time. Here's an alternate take on it all:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/20/explaining-obamas-approval-rating-bounce/#more-20623

[duggersd]

You have been pushing that story, Bill, but if you read it closely, you find that the factors that are pushing Obama up or really only perceptions. He mentions the numbers are actually not good. Example, unemployment is down to 8.6%. That is quite a jump down, until you look at the numbers a little more closely. When 115,000 people are suddenly taken off the unemployment rolls because they have quit looking, that is nearly 1%. The total workforce participation is down from three years ago, artificially lowering the unemployment rate. The lower number of first time jobless claims can be a good sign, or an indication there are not that many more jobs to shed. The best thing Obama has going for him is the fighting in Congress. Bad is being compared to worse. The House keeps sending things to the Senate and they get stopped there. The Senate is 1/2 of Congress and run by the Democrats. However for some reason the Republicans get the blame.

[Bill Fleming]

Hahaha.
Only perceptions, DuggerSD?
Imagine that.
Bwahahaha.
Good one, dude.

[Jimi]

There is no point in argueing about approval ratings for a President or a Congress, there is no concrete conclusion that can be drawn. The reality always appears crystal clear the day after an election.

Of course the media and the Democrats are attempting to paint the Republicans as the sole problem....there is nothing new there!

The fact that Democrats were defeated so badly in 2010 and have the most to risk in 2012 is the real point of the conversation. The Democrats have 23 seats compared to the Republican 10 seats up for election in 2012 in the Senate. The victory by the Republicans in the House in 2010 marked a major shift in the political landscape...not just because Republicans regain a majority in the House, but because we have just recently gone through a Census. Redistricting has taken place, and the Democrats Gerrymandering over the years has finally began to crack. Working on a more fair playing field, and "yes" with redistricting favoring Republicans for once in some areas, "to the victor go the spoils....or elections have consequences," It will be very difficult for Democrats to reduce the majority in the House. Especially, when they have had Obama as the Leader of the Executive branch, they either have to ditch him and lose their base support, or publically support him and help bucket water out of the hull of the sinking Titanic. Not good prospects for Democrats.....and I suspect the majority of the remaining Democrats are going to get royally anger bounced out of congress. Obama may hang on, that is possible, but he will have a Republican Majority in the House and Senate, which means nothing will happend, because he doesn't know how to lead or give up his Ideological agenda. This all spells doom for our economy and future prosperity.

[duggersd]

Yes, Bill, perceptions. Has unemployment dropped significantly? If you look at the raw number, yes. If you look at the number of people no longer being counted, no. But you go ahead and spin it. The public will only see the 8.6%. But when the voters start seeing nothing has changed and the economy has not started hiring more and more people, we will see what happens. A certain commentator you do not like predicted almost a year ago the official unemployment figure will be near 8% because they will want to get this most incompetent president of the 21st century re-elected.

[Bill Fleming]

Here's a little "perception" for ya, DuggerSD.
http://www.nmvoices.org/archives/1393

[duggersd]

OK, I get it. Unemployment insurance creates jobs. And Santa delivers you toys on Christmas. Have a merry one.

[Stan Gibilisco]

Way back in 2007, two people I knew expressed a desire to get laid off, specifically because they'd rather collect unemployment than work at the jobs they had.

Well, they got their wishes. As far as I know, one of them has found a job much more to his liking; the other alternates between stupor, rehab, and jail.

So I have mixed feelings about all of this business.

I harbor undiluted gratitude to the Lord for the fact that I, personally, like my work and have a decent, if not spectacular, project outlook for the new year.

I wish that my fellow Republicans had "caved" on the surtax for the rich, in exchange for getting the payroll tax cut extended for a full year. I'd like to see some modification to the way unemployment insurance is administered and paid out, so as to put a little fire under people who'd rather suckle from the teat of the state than pull their own weight.

I wish the Tea Party folks would stop destroying my beloved G.O.P., the one I came to know under presidents like Gerald Ford, Ronald Reagan, and (to some extent) even Richard Nixon who, despite his foibles, kept me out of the war in Vietnam by ending the draft in the nick of time.

New year's resolutions? I don't make 'em. That way, I can't break 'em.

Do I sound like an old man yet?

[duggersd]

Bill, here is a toast to our "4th greatest President in History". http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=qymIXlcO3JY

[Bill Fleming]

You should save those things, duggerSD and let them ferment. They'll go good in your bowl of crow's nest soup come next November.

[duggersd]

For those of you who like charts. I know one person who does. http://blog.american.com/2011/12/the-7-most-illuminating-economic-charts-of-2011/ This shows some of the things other people don't want you to see.

[larry kurtz]

Hatred for the Earth is not a virtue, Barnes. Your graphs represent a misery index driven by the failure of capitalism to protect land, life, and hope. Anyone who believes that success is measured by pecuniary metrics is lost to the masters who feed him.

I'm sorry you're miserable, Doug; it's likely your own fault.

[larry kurtz]

Consumerism be damned:

http://www.truth-out.org/goodbye-shop-til-you-drop-mentality-renegade-band-economists-call-degrowth-economy/1324836174

[Stan Gibilisco]

Great link, Larry. I hope everybody reads it. We cannot grow forever on a finite planet.

[duggersd]

Larry, I do not normally respond to you, but other than the fact my mother passed away last week, I am not miserable. I do not have anything in my post to indicate that either. And your post comes from a guy who is always complaining about the pit he lives in in SD. Personally, I do not give a rat's derriere about what you think, but in this case I will respond. None of those graphs show what you purport them to. They do show what I say they do.

[larry kurtz]

She was young, please accept my condolences, Doug. My point stands.

http://www.argusleader.com/apps/pbcs.dll/dclassifieds?Dato=20111223&Kategori=OBITUARIES&Class=1&Type=CAT2000&Lopenr=111200364&Selected=1