More Bad Numbers for Obama

Almost all political scientists are, privately or otherwise, partisans. Whether we recognize it or not, we lean toward one party or the other more heavily than most voters do. That's true of almost anyone who pays a lot of attention to politics. Political scientists have one advantage over other partisans: whether or not the trends are going our way, we are always entertained.

This political year is more entertaining than usual. Newt Gingrich has opened up a sizeable lead over Mitt Romney in several key states and nationally. Gingrich is polling twice as well as Romney and Paul in Iowa. He is leading Romney by 23 points in South Carolina and Florida. Past history suggests that Newt will fade before or after he screams in Iowa, but I ain't puttin' any money on anyone. This isn't the field I would have picked out, but it is entertaining.

Obama can take some comfort in the few head to head polls pitting him against Mitt and Newt. However, his own approval rating is stuck deep in negative territory. Compared to post-war Presidents, he leads only Jimmy Carter in his 3^rd year November approval ratings, 42% over 40%, with a disapproval rating of 51%. This number looks to be settling in. The electorate has taken its measure of the President and is unlikely to revise it much, short of some October surprise.

The worse news for Obama in particular and Democrats in general is the trends in a very real number: voter registration. From the National Journal:

President Obama and his re-election team have prided themselves on their well-oiled get-out-the-vote effort. But a new study from the centrist think tank Third Way suggests Democrats are losing ground organizationally in nearly all of the key battleground states in the general election.

The group's analysis found that, in the eight politically-pivotal states that register voters by party, a significant number have left the Democratic party since 2008, with many choosing to register as independents. Over 825,000 registered Democrats in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina and Pennsylvania have departed the party rolls since President Obama's election in 2008, a much more significant share than the number of Republicans (378,000) who have done the same. Meanwhile, the number of registered independents has ticked upwards by 254,000.

That is doubly bad news for the elder party. Both parties have seen a lot of voters depart, but more than twice as many have left the Democrats. Registered independents have increased by a significant number in this eight state survey. The Democrats are doing very poorly among independent voters in nearly every election since 2008. These are more substantial numbers than can be had in opinion surveys, but the latter tend to confirm the trend.

It gets worse.

The Democratic decline is especially stark in Iowa and Florida, two early Republican primary states where Democrats have lost significant ground. In Iowa, the number of registered Democrats has declined 7.9 percent since 2008, while the number of registered Republicans has increased by two percent. In the Sunshine State, Democratic registration decreased by five percent, while Republican registration dipped 2.2 percent.

In New Hampshire, Democratic registration plummeted a whopping 14.6 percent, with Republican registration declining a similarly significant 13.5 percent.

In every one of the eight battleground states, Democrats lost ground to Republicans. (In Colorado, Republicans saw a larger rate of growth in voter registration than Democrats, 1.8 to 0.9 percent.)

The report underscores how much different 2012 will be for Obama than 2008. Back then, it was commonplace to hear how many new voters the Obama campaign was registering. Now, it looks like some of those voters, newly disenchanted, are leaving the party rolls.

The Republican Party is hardly surging in registered voters, but it is doing rather better than the opposition. If current trends hold up, Republicans who reregister as independents will continue to vote for the GOP.

If Republicans are good at anything, it is snatching awful defeat from the very jaws of victory. I certainly wouldn't put it past Romney or Gingrich to lose under these promising circumstances. We should not, however, overestimate their competence. They may not be capable of losing this one.

Comments

[makeityourring diamond engagement rings]

I have seen your awareness about this theme when you post it and it really gives an informational message to us readers. I am hoping that you will continue writing this kind of blog. Thanks for sharing this information.

[larry kurtz]

Selling diamond engagement rings makes perfect sense for you in your new career having failed at selling this brand of anti-America propaganda, Ken.

Best wishes in your new venture.

[Bill Fleming]

Keep wishin' and hopin', KB.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ycbgHM1mI0k

[duggersd]

I believe one of the key trends is the loss of members from both parties to independents. I changed my registration some years ago due to the Republicans spending like Democrats. The only thing the Republicans have going for them is they are losing at a slower rate than the Democrats. I also suspect there is a yearning for a party that will actually govern by the kinds of values we used to display. The only problem with that is it will split the vote and the current President wins. And that is what some people are wishin' and hopin' for. A united Republican party will sweep Obama out of the White House.

[Ken Blanchard]

So long as you keep ignorn', Bill. What's your ring size, Kurtz?

[Kody]

duggersd: Very good points. I do think that everyone should notice the loss of both parties to independents. Has anyone ever though about how the newly turned 18 year olds are going to register? Different views and beliefs of the modern youth continue to change. Although many of the youth may not vote, the ones that do can definitely help set a trend for the future.

[duggersd]

Kody, from what I am hearing BHO is losing the "young" vote. Those who voted in 2008 voted heavily for BHO. I believe a lot of them are just disillusioned and will choose not to vote at all. I have always heard if you were young and not a liberal you did not have a heart. If you were over 30 and not a conservative, you did not have a brain. Many of those are between not having a heart and not having a brain. In another election cycle, I believe many of those will have a brain and be looking for the best conservative candidate.

[Dave]

Woh, woh, woh!.... Republican presidential candidate Rick "shoot 'em up kill em dead" Perry says the voting age is 19... And he knows EVERYTHING...

[Dave]

the approval rating of Congress is dismally low. However, **the House of Representatives is controlled by GOP Speaker John Boehner and a majority Republican caucus.** __**But when Fox publishes their story about the floundering body they accompany the piece with a picture of [Democratic Rep. Nancy Pelosi.] __**Boehner, et al, are nowhere to be seen.**

This deception is even more unseemly when you take into account that it is the Republican Party that is held in far lower esteem that the Democrats. And particularly with regard to the current debate over the Payroll Tax, the American people are incensed that the GOP has refused to allow its extension to come up for a vote. The result will be that 160 million workers will get a tax increase beginning January 1.