Why Obama Will Lose

Fear not, all you who disagree with this post title. I will also pen a post soon explaining why Obama will win (which right now is my default position). But let's stay with the post title for now.

The political science models on presidential elections are heavy on two variables: the economy and presidential job approval. Barak Obama is not doing well on either score. The political science models usually come out in May because by Spring before an election the fundamentals of the race are basically set. I do not see Obama's fate on these to variables (economy and approval) getting appreciably better over the next five months or so. If anything, I expect the economic news to be somewhere between bad and worse, but certainly not significantly better. I note that the political science models are quite predictive (but not perfectly so: wait for the next post). When you take into account Obama's approval, the economy, the number of Americans saying the country is on the wrong track, it is safe to say that the fundamentals of this election are not favorable to the president.

In any election where an incumbent in involved one necessary component of the challenger's strategy is to give enough voters some reason to change their mind. Obama, with a poor record on jobs, deficits, and saddled with an unpopular health care bill, has left plenty of ammunition for this case to be made. This is an election where almost any generic Republican is likely to beat Mr. Obama. The questions is, where will we find that generic Republican?

Comments

[larry kurtz]

Prof. Schaff: yer just plain silly.

"In fact, the president appears to have raised more than all the Republicans combined." http://www.npr.org/2011/10/13/141329202/obama-fundraising-outpaces-gop-challengers

[Anne]

Does political science have a variable defined for when voters give up on a current political system as having any relevance or usefulness to their lives? When people don't think who wins an election matters any more?

[larry kurtz]

It's called Occupy Wall Street, Anne.

[Jon S.]

Anne,
Yes. It is either "apathy" or "revolution."

Larry: Incumbents almost always out raise their opponents, but somehow incumbents also manage to lose from time to time. Also, maybe you should read the post again. I think Obama will win. Fundraising is part of my reasoning. I just haven't written that post yet.

[Jimi]

Larry,

Occupy Wall Street does not represent the majority. There may small elements within the protest that do, but the overall messaging so far, does not speak to the majority.

As of right now...we have moved a great distance from the Free Market system, a battle that started with FDR, weakened with the Great Society and now pushed over the edge by Obama. People are pissed now that they are starting to understand the various Ideological agendas. So in context of Anne's comment, "Does political science have a variable defined for when voters give up on a current political system," the answer is "Yes, vote anything but that allys with the Progressive Agenda."

Occuupy Wall Street so far has only sent the message of more of the same attack on the Free Market coupled with a non-traditional social engineering agenda....all of which is clear that the majority of the population roundly rejects.

[larry kurtz]

Occupy Wall Street represents a majority, just not yours, Meidinger; the 'free market' exists only outside american constitutional law.

[Stan Gibilisco]

In my view, a majority of Americans can identify with some of the "Occupy Wall Street" movement's sentiments. But only a small minority would go the whole distance. I read a list of their "demands" awhile back and it amounts to a spruce goose that could never fly. For example, forgive all debt -- just reset everything to zero all over the whole world.

The full menu of these bozos is worse than "999," a ticking time bomb for the middle class that would make the Bush tax cuts seem like a firecracker by comparison.

The only Generic Republican that I can see -- in the old-style sense such as Gerald Ford -- is Mitt Romney. The rest of the Republicans are all clowns, and not very good clowns, either, because I always thought clowns were supposed to make me laugh, but these characters just make me want to cry.

[larry kurtz]

Resistance to the Predator Class has begun: http://www.blogforarizona.com/blog/2011/10/the-predator-class-is-in-full-panic-mode-over-the-populist-occupy-wall-street-movement.html

[Bill Fleming]

Jon are you going to take into account the possibility of an Independent candidate?
Seems like that may be the last card to drop.

[Bill Fleming]

meanwhile:
http://swampland.time.com/full-results-of-oct-9-10-2011-time-poll/