What should President Obama do to win reelection? Everyone seems to agree about what he will do, in part because he is already doing it. He will largely give up actually trying to make policy and instead focus solely on the campaign. His every proposal will be designed with the campaign in mind. He will raise tens of millions and then, when a Republican opponent emerges, probably early next year, he will wage a bitterly negative campaign.
I am pretty sure that is what will happen because most of it is already happening. It is pretty much what the political playbook recommends, given the dreadful list of his liabilities.
David Brooks thinks this is a doomed strategy. Democrats are the party of trust in government. Republicans are the party of distrust in government. Right now, trust in government among the American electorate is in the toilet. If the election comes down to a choice between the Republican and Democratic positions, Obama loses. What he should do is return to the strategy he won on in the first place.
Obama would be wiser to champion a Grand Bargain strategy. Use the Congressional deficit supercommittee to embrace the sort of new social contract we've been circling around for the past few years: simpler taxes, reformed entitlements, more money for human capital, growth and innovation.
Don't just whisper Grand Bargain in back rooms with John Boehner. Make it explicit. Take it to the country. Lower the ideological atmosphere and get everybody thinking concretely about the real choices facing the nation.
Thomas Mann and Norman Ornstein think this is terrible advice. Yes, voters may say they are more conservative now, but they don't really mean it. They are just depressed about the economy. Obama should use all his power and money to paint the Republicans as obstructionists. We could fix the economy, if only the Republicans weren't blocking us.
Both Brooks and Mann/Ornstein think that the election will be won by the candidate who employs the right labels. If Obama can affix the "unifier and conciliator" label to his own forehead (Brooks) or if he can affix the obstructionist label to the opposition (Mann/Ornstein), then he can win.
This is all wrong. After three years in office, voters have figured this guy out. No change of labels will help. The Republican brand is, if anything, less popular than the Obama brand, but that didn't stop the Republicans from sweeping the last election down to the level of dog catcher.
What voters will be looking for next year is someone, anyone, who can steer the damn ship of state. A loss of confidence in Obama's navigation is his real problem. He may well in by painting his opponent as an even less promising captain, but if he does he will set the stage for a very dismal second term.
If Obama wants a bold strategy, I have one to offer. He should suspend campaigning altogether and promise not to resume it until after the national conventions. He should go back to Washington and spend all his time trying to hammer out a real budget proposal. He should be constantly meeting with Republican leaders. He should frankly acknowledge the problems facing America's great social programs and put forth real proposals with real numbers for dealing with them.
Instead of trying to deny the gun-running scandal, he should publicly acknowledge it and very visibly call his Justice Department to account. Instead of denying the obvious mess that his green jobs program has been or the boondoggle that his health care policy is turning out to be, he should act if he was the first person to notice the problems and is now energetically addressing them.
The point of all this would not be to convince the voters that he is the great conciliator or that the Republicans are all orcs. The point would be to convince voters that he is interested in doing his job. Then voters would have to wonder if the Republican to be named later would really be any better at it.
Of course, all this presumes that Obama is really interested in and capable of doing his job, or at least of appearing to be so. It would also presume real courage. For both reasons, the President is not likely to be inspired by my advice.
"What voters will be looking for next year is someone, anyone, who can steer the damn ship of state."
IMHO, of all the +electable+ Republicans now in the field, Mitt Romney's the one for that job.
Posted by: Stan Gibilisco | Sunday, October 30, 2011 at 01:39 AM
Mitt Romney:
http://harpers.org/archive/2011/10/0083637
Posted by: Bill Fleming | Sunday, October 30, 2011 at 05:16 AM
The job of a President is not be to sit down with idiots and hammer out policy that won't work, and that will continue the war on the middle class and the downward trajectory that Republican policies guarantee for our country. Obama tried working with Republicans for three years. It has been a singular failure.
You are right. Americans have figured Obama out, but maybe, just maybe Obama has begun to figure out the Americans. He's begun to turn on the Republicans. It's three years too late, but it's about time.
Posted by: Donald Pay | Sunday, October 30, 2011 at 08:32 AM
Obama has been known to pull a rabbit out of a hat on more than one occasion.
One underestimates him and his team at one's own peril.
This will be an historic election season. Many big shoes left to drop on both sides.
Posted by: Bill Fleming | Sunday, October 30, 2011 at 10:21 AM
You got that right he pulls a rabbit out of a bag of tricks, all the tricks in the world that he keeps pulling is getting him sent back not to the white house but back to Kenya where he belongs. You think Dick holds the name tricky Dick well Obama's title is before I'm done I'm taking down America, and he has a real good start and he wont stop till we impeach him. Just look at the stimulus money that all these CO's, are filing for bankruptcy,and if you are paying any attention there is more to come, Yes he has a hat just full of tricks but not with rabbits.
Posted by: Janice Woodford | Monday, October 31, 2011 at 10:02 AM
Janice, there will be no impeachment. There is no provision for incompetence. Even if we found some sort of high crimes and misdemeanors, the chances are very good he will be voted out of office in one year one week and one day. There just is not enough time to actually go through the process. Besides, would you REALLY want say President Biden??????
Posted by: duggersd | Monday, October 31, 2011 at 10:24 AM
Janice - Let's look over your statement carefully:
Back to Keyna? Seriously? He was born in Hawaii. He is an American Citizen. If you want to go off on him being a crappy president, knock yourself out. But, you should be warned that the moment that Birther nonsense leaves your mouth, you have lost all credibility. Now I AM giving you the benefit of the doubt that you are spouting out Birther nonsense. If not, you are spouting racist garbage - talk about sending a black man back to Africa where he belongs is offensive. That actually will kill your credibility as much if not more, while at the same time turning off independents and firing up the Democrats.
As DuggerSD said, he will either be voted out next fall, in which case an impeachment just won't happen because of time OR if he is re-elected, there is still not a snowball's chance of impeachment unless he can be linked to some sort of high crime. Incompetence is not a crime. Being a crappy president is not a crime. Being serially wrong is not a crime. Even if it was nobody, and I mean NOBODY thinks that the Republican Party will pick up the 18 Senate seats that they would need to actually convict. Without that, some Democrats would have to vote to convict (figure the odds on that).
Posted by: Anthony Renli | Monday, October 31, 2011 at 03:50 PM
"What should President Obama do to win reelection?"
Become a Conservative Republican? What do I win?
Posted by: Jimi | Monday, October 31, 2011 at 07:48 PM
Donald is like one of those dolls where you pull a string and they say one of seven things. Except that Donald doesn't have seven things to say. It's more like three. Sitting down with idiots is precisely the President's job. To judge by Donald and Bill, the President has no job. He doesn't have to prepare a budget or make policy, that's for sure.
Posted by: Ken Blanchard | Tuesday, November 01, 2011 at 01:23 AM
Tsk. KB. He's done quite a few things so far. Even you have given him major kudos from time to time:
http://planetpov.com/2011/02/13/a-short-list-of-pres-obamas-accomplishments/
Posted by: Bill Fleming | Tuesday, November 01, 2011 at 10:23 AM
Let us look at some other accomplishments:
Increased the debt by $4,000,000,000,000 +
Spent nearly $1,000,000,000,000 guaranteed to keep unemployment below 8%. So far he has peaked at 10% + and is keeping it at 9% +. When the real unemployment # is looked at, we see it around 16%.
Presided over a gun running scheme. So far at least one agent has been killed and God only knows how many civilians.
Implemented the removal of troops from Iraq negotiated by Bush.
Kept Gitmo open despite campaign promises.
Given/guaranteed funds to "green" energy companies that is going down the tubes.
Taken over two auto companies.
Forced stockholders to give up their rightful stakes in said companies.
Implemented a health care bomb that will either bankrupt the country or be repealed.
Increased the number of people depending upon the government for their handouts.
This is just off the top of my head. I think his best accomplishment will be to be a one term President.
Posted by: duggersd | Tuesday, November 01, 2011 at 01:46 PM
Okay, Bill, Obama fixed New Orleans' schools, with a little help, as I have demonstrated, from a hurricane. Good thing he didn't allow himself to be distracted by bothering to produce a budget or propose reforms to the gigantic entitlement programs in which he professes to believe.
Posted by: Ken Blanchard | Wednesday, November 02, 2011 at 12:18 AM