The Bacon Fat Hardens on the Plate

 
This might be the most ominous thing yet published on Obama's chances for reelection. From Chris Cillizza's The Fix at the WaPo:

Four in 10 Americans "strongly" disapprove of how President Obama is handling the job of president in the new Washington Post-ABC News poll, the highest that number has risen during his time in office and a sign of the hardening opposition to him as he seeks a second term.

While the topline numbers are troubling enough, dig deeper into them and the news gets no better for Obama. Forty-three percent of independents — a group the president spent the better part of the last year courting — strongly disapprove of the job he is doing. Forty-seven percent of people 65 years of age and older — reliable voters in any election — strongly disapprove of how he is doing his job.

Strong opposition to Obama has grown markedly since the start of the year.

I would not have the courage to say that a poll taken more than a year before the election can predict the outcome of that election, even if I believed it. I don't. However, if any poll did have such power, it would look like this.

Consider that a candidate for President from either party can usually count on 40% of the vote. Since 1964 only Bush 41, McGovern, and Goldwater fell into the upper 30's. If the WaPo poll is right, 40% of the voters are lost to Obama. If that holds, then the Republican candidate, whoever he is, will need to add only 11% to win the popular vote. Don't look to the Electoral College to save Barack. He is as weak in key states as he is nationally.

As Cillizza notes, it gets worse. A candidate wins the White House by adding to his base number from swing voters. Forty-three percent of independents strongly disapprove of his job performance. Voters over 65, the most politically active demographic, are approaching 50% strong disapproval.

To look at the poll numbers, his net disapproval on the economy and job creation is 61 and 60%. Strong disapproval is at 48 and 47% respectively.

I think the President's political strategy is all wrong. He is in full tilt campaign mode already and everyone knows it. This is in line with the idea that in the past Democrats have waited too long to answer charges and get moving on bringing out the vote. That idea was never well founded, but right now it is probably the opposite of the truth. Obama needs to look like he is governing rather than campaigning. The early incessant campaigning reinforces the view that he has nothing to offer in the way of policy. In fact he doesn't, but it doesn't help to advertize the fact.

Maybe the Republicans will nominate Rick Perry and he'll choose Sarah Palin as his running mate. That is the kind of thing Obama's people must be hoping for. Right now it is hard to see how Obama can beat anything short of ridiculous.

Comments

[Stan Gibilisco]

... Unless some bozo runs as a conservative independent and splits the Republican vote. I can think of at least three bozos-in-waiting who might very well do this sort of thing, and whose irrationality and massive egos I fear, both for my own welfare and for the welfare of my country; but I shall refrain, out of the goodness of my heart, from naming them.

[duggersd]

Ken, I hope you are not suggesting Rick Perry cannot beat BHO, and Sarah Palin is not going to be anybody's VP. Besides people do not vote for the VP. Right now, there are about 5 or 6 people I believe can beat BHO. As you have noted, the establishment did not like Ronald Reagan either. He scared the hell out of them. He had a vision as do at least 4 of the Republican candidates. If Perry ever learns to debate, he will be very difficult to defeat.

[sdpride]

Perry is a joke. Every time he opens his mouth his numbers drop. There is no way he will win the nomination, let alone beat Obama. Romney is going to win the nomination and probably beat Obama.

[Ken Blanchard]

My point was that, at present, it looks like a Perry/Palin ticket is Obama's only hope. Or something like that.

[duggersd]

sdpride, whoever the nominee is, I believe that person will defeat Obama. Perry has not done very well in debating. I do not believe his stand on immigration is as bad as some would want to make it look. Perry has also been the punching bag for just about everyone, the media and the fellow candidates. Time will tell whether he is a joke or not, but I do not believe one achieves the level of success he has had by being a joke.
Dr. B, there is no point in speculating Perry/Palin as it will never happen. Perry/Gingrich, Romney/Gingrich, Cain/Gingrich(which I doubt due to both being from Georgia), Perry/Bachman, Cain/Bachman, Romney/Bachman, etc. or just about any other combination I believe can beat Obama/Biden.

[William]

Actually, I don't think Newt Gingrich still resides in Georgia anymore. I've been in a few discussions where a possible Cain/Gingrich ticket has been brought up.

[Mike Cooper]

Cain, Perry.....................Romney, my favorites, in that order, for the nomination. Cain and Perry will pick someone solid as a running mate (Ryan, Pawlenty, Rubio would be wonderful). Romney will have to go with someone with pizzazz. All of them will be strong against Obama.

Perry's stance on immigration will hurt him with the GOP, but will help significantly in the general election. I see Spanish ads saying that as Texas governor, immigrants got in state tuition. What has Obama ever done for Hispanics?

[Dave]

BUT: President Obama’s approval rating is only 43 percent in Iowa. But that’s higher than any Republican candidate can get against him. Hmmm...

[Qhaa]

At this point, I think McCain will be the Republican nominee. It's all but a conioatron at this point. Giuliani is a great leader, and I don’t think this is the end of his political career, but he didn’t show the kind of oratorical brilliance that I’ve seen from him on several occasions. I tried to tell you this guy was gonna flop. Chalk one more successful political prediction up on my board. Mitt Romney’s strong executive experience doesn’t seem to have helped him in Florida. Romney has been a stalwart conservative in this race, but ultimately I don’t think he has enough momentum out of Super Tuesday to make it all the way. He’s certainly not out of the race, but he has a great deal of ground to gain in very little time. This was Willard's chance .and it still didn't happen for him. With a weak frontrunner despised in many circles, a crowded field of bankrupted campaigns unable to match Willard's campaign warchest, and a Republican-only primary in a state chock full of retired bigshots who moved there to avoid paying their taxes, there was no reason why Willard couldn't prevail. It speaks volumes about his surprisingly weak candidacy and reinforces my point from last week that he has nowhere else to go after Florida. Sen. John McCain is an American hero, a man of great personal integrity He's unquestionably an American hero .and up until four days ago, unquestionably a man of integrity as well. I even maintained a nominal respect for the guy when he was snuggling up to the agents of intolerance for political expediency last year. But we finally saw the sleazy side of McCain this past weekend when he intentionally distorted Willard's position on withdrawal from Iraq. This was reminiscent of the very kind of dirty politics he rightfully decried about being waged against him in South Carolina. Anyone who has to sink to that level of demagoguery to win a primary with 36% of the vote is alot less worthy of integrity accolades than he was a week ago. however, when it comes right down to it a man who agrees with us 80% of the time is better than a woman who represents the worst of American politics and a man whose great rhetoric is but a cover for a fundamental lack of real-world experience That's why the Tom DeLays and talk radio crybabies are ultimately bluffing. Whether McCain's challenger is Hitlery Rotten or Obama, the hard-right will vigorously defend and campaign for him in the summer and fall. and they should continue to push Sen. McCain towards the mainstream of the party as they have on issues like immigration. Rest assured that he'll undergo a Dole-esque conversion by the time he addresses the Republican National Convention. John McCain will cut wasteful spending in Washington, defend our troops in Iraq and our war against radical Islamist terrorism A more perfect example of a contradiction in terms I cannot recall.