New York 9: the Canary in Obama's Coal Mine? Update

Don't look just now, but the pattern that emerged in 2007-2008 may be about to repeat. Remember Weiner-Gate? The Congressman who resigned from office after his bulging boxers went viral? A special election to replace him is scheduled for Tuesday. From the New York Times:

Panicked Democrats are releasing a barrage of negative television advertising, turning to the national party for a cash infusion and pleading with President Obama's network of supporters for help as they confront what seemed impossible two months ago: defeat in the heavily Democratic House district last represented by Anthony D. Weiner…

A new poll released on Friday showed Bob Turner, the Republican, with a six-point lead over [Democrat David] Weprin.

Now it's hard to know how much stock to put in the Siena College poll. A sampling error would explain all of its provocative findings. The Democrats certainly seem to believe it.

Party leaders say the president's flagging popularity and defections among Jewish voters have left them facing the embarrassing possibility that their candidate, Assemblyman David I. Weprin, could lose New York's Ninth Congressional District to a little-known Republican businessman who has never held elected office…

Steven A. Greenberg, a pollster from Siena College, which conducted the survey, said the special election, though it was taking place in a traditionally Democratic section of Brooklyn and Queens, had become a chance for voters to register their unhappiness with the national economic and political climate. The poll, which had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points, found that 54 percent of likely voters in the district had an unfavorable view of Mr. Obama, and nearly three quarters said the country was headed in the wrong direction.

I have a hard time believing that a heavily Democratic district, including parts of Brooklyn and Queens, is really that down on Obama, let alone that it is ready to vote Republican. Are Jewish voters really about to jump ship? That would occasion another of those 'what color is the sky now?' moments. But then I had a hard time believing that Scott Brown would replace Ted Kennedy.  There are signs that the sky is changing color. 

Mr. Weprin's campaign has been hurt by his lack of charisma, a handful of campaign gaffes and, most surprisingly, his position on Israel. He is an Orthodox Jew and staunch supporter of Israel, but former Mayor Edward I. Koch urged Jewish voters to reject Mr. Weprin as a way of protesting Mr. Obama's suggestion that pre-1967 borders of Israel should form the basis of a Middle East peace agreement.

Some prominent Orthodox Jewish leaders — citing not only Mr. Obama's position on Israel but also Mr. Weprin's support of same-sex marriage — have endorsed Mr. Turner, a Roman Catholic who has aggressively courted observant Jewish voters. A group of Jewish Republicans sent voters postcards featuring a Holocaust survivor attesting that, despite being a lifelong Democrat, she would vote for Mr. Turner.

It's hard to think of a demographic other than African Americans who have been more reliable Democrats than Jewish voters. If Orthodox Jews in Queens and Brooklyn are really ready to vote for a Catholic Republican over an Orthodox Jewish Democrat, we are way down the rabbit hole. The above paragraphs surely do suggest that this is possible.

The Democrats are taking this very seriously. According to the Times, they are already pointing fingers at each other. Who lost NY-9? They have their own internal polls and this may indicate what those polls are really showing.

What makes this all the more interesting (read 'enticing' if you're a Republican and 'existentially terrifying' if you're a Democrat) is that it seems to mirror what Gallup is finding across the land. The President's approval has dropped eight points among African Americans, from 92 to 84%. It has dropped precipitously among another solid Democratic voting bloc, Hispanics, from 75 to 48%. Among White voters, it has gone from 58 to 33%.

If actual turnout and choices in November of 2012 are remotely close to those numbers, there is no way that Obama gets a second term. A Ron Paul/Michelle Bachmann ticket (or vice versa) beats him. Of course, Bachmann/Paul would very probably change those numbers and maybe Perry/whoever may do the same. The Obama team has to be hoping that the Republican ticket will be loathsome enough to change the numbers enough. What other hope do they have?

If Bob Turner really wins New York 9, let alone by six points, he will become the Scott Brown of this election cycle. It will demonstrate what opinion polls can only estimate: that the loss of confidence in the President is nationwide and bedrock deep. It will show in real terms that he is a drag on Democrats across the board.

"Weprin has lost the campaign," said Bruce N. Gyory, a Democratic political consultant who was not involved in the race. "Now it's about who wins the turnout."

That it has come down to turnout tells the story.

Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight provides a very good analysis of the NY9 race.  He certainly gives reason to question the Siena poll.  But here is his bottom line:

Over all, Mr. Weprin’s advantages are more tangible, which is why I would consider him a modest favorite given the ambiguity in the polling.

But a victory by Mr. Turner would hardly be surprising. I always caution against drawing national implications from special election results, and would certainly do so here given the idiosyncrasies of the district. But it would represent a nice little notch in Republicans’ belts and a troubling data point for Democrats.

Nate doesn't know and I don't know. 

Comments

[duggersd]

Interestingly, I have read some stories on this and even the conservative blogs do not believe Turner can win in the general election, even if he is the incumbent. The guy the Dems have put up must be really loathsome. Someone has even suggested that the Dems will put up Anthony Weiner in 2012!

[William]

Many are Jewish by identification, if not by faith. Obama has managed to turn those who identify as Jewish against him. As a member of the Republican Jewish Coalition, I can attest that many life-long Democrats have seen him for what he is.

As Obama has led the Democrat Party to positions "beyond the pale" for many in the Democrat coalition, I will not be surprised to see a turnout in 2012 that actually does provide a mandate to reverse not only Obama's policies, but those of "Progressives" already embedded for generations.

[William]

Tears flow from my cheeks on this day, as they do everytime I think not only of this anniversary, but of those that I see daily that who are sacrificing their lives to preserve the freedoms we enjoy.

I’m sorry, I had to interrupt my thoughts, the tears in my eyes overcame me…

GOD BLESS our troopers that serve to protect us!

[Stan Gibilisco]

In my opinion, a Republican victory in Weiner's district would have little, if anything, to do with Weiner's having damaged the Democrats. Perverts populate the political panorama from horizon to horizon. A Republican win in NY9 would reflect a larger sentiment among the populace -- that Democrats are driving this country toward destruction -- and also that Dugger is right, that Weprin is a plain loser.

As for the decline in Obama's popularity, I suspect that the change in Hispanic sentiments will drive the the final nails into his casket with a sledge hammer in 2012, unless Donald Trump or Ron Paul runs on an independent ticket and splits the Republican vote. I'll bet that a lot of Cubans in Miami will go for "anybody but Obama"!

[Miranda]

I don't know. Surely the fact that Obama hosted a Seder after his remarks about the pre-1967 borders will win him back support! Even if he did use "kosher-style" non-kosher foods and a Maxwell House Haggadah.

[George Mason]

The questions about the poll should be answered by the reaction of the dem's. Obviously their polling must indicate big trouble.

[Ken Blanchard]

George: that is the way I have been reading this. The update in my more recent post confirms as much.

[Mike Cooper]

The canary died.

[Mike Cooper]

The canary died.