New York 9

The PPP poll (affiliated with the Democrats) has finally been released. It shows the same thing the Siena poll did: a six point lead for Republican Bob Turner. Turner is probably going to take NY9.

Comments

[Mike Cooper]

The Democrats have a decent candidate, no intra-party fight, and oodles of money. If they can't win this one, November 6, 2012 is going to be a very long night for them.

[Ken Blanchard]

Mike: I predict that if Weprin does lose, we will suddenly find out from the press that he was a weak candidate and a bad campaigner.

[Jimi]

"I predict that if Weprin does lose, we will suddenly find out from the press that he was a weak candidate and a bad campaigner."

No.....the media will pretend as if it were a victory, claiming he is a weak candidate in a Republican district, and then go on and on about how weak the Republican are. [SEE WISCONSIN]

[Jon S.]

I get a daily email update from Congressional Quarterly. Readers may find this discussion on NY 9 enlightening:

Bob Turner, who’s been best known until now as the reality impresario behind “The Jerry Springer Show,” has become the man to beat in the Brooklyn and Queens district that used to belong to Anthony Weiner. (And that’s even though he took just 39 percent as the 2010 GOP nominee for the seat and John McCain took only 44 percent there in 2008.) Two surveys in recent days, by Siena College and Public Policy Polling, show Turner with a 6-percentage-point lead — essentially outside the margin of error — against state Assemblyman David Weprin. (Even a well-greased get-out-the-vote effort by the labor unions probably won’t be enough to save the Democrat, because one in three Democrats say they’re ready to vote Republican.)

Both polls offer dramatic evidence of the biggest reason why Chuck Schumer's old House seat is ready to flip to the GOP: Obama’s approval rating among the local electorate is an abysmal 31 percent in one of them and only 43 percent in the other. At the same time, though, the polls suggest that the area’s largely Orthodox Jewish constituency is at least as angry with the president over his Middle East policies as over the economy. It’s also true that Weprin has been a particularly memorable rhetorical stumblebum as a candidate and that plenty of voters want to cast a symbolic protest ballot against Weiner’s online misbehavior.

What all that means is that, in the end, this is yet another special election with dynamics that do NOT make it a harbinger of the future. And besides, no matter who wins, he’s going to be a 15-month congressional footnote because the 9th District will be carved up in redistricting.

[Dave]

Sorry KB,
Passed in Dec 2006 by GWB, GOP house and senate...
2006 Congressional mandate put on the US Postal Service contained in the “Postal Accountability and Enhancement Act of 2006” to pre-fund healthcare benefits of future retirees, a 75 year liability over a 10 year period. No other agency or corporation is required to do this. This provision costs the Postal Service $5.5 billion a year... Technically, We're both right...