Gone Wisconsin

Well, The New York Times does a heroic job of spinning the recall election in Wisconsin.

Five months after Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin pushed through a law stripping public unions of their bargaining rights, the Republican Party has paid a price. Two of the state senators who backed the law were thrown out of office by voters on Tuesday and replaced with Democrats. Mr. Walker's opponents did not succeed in turning over the Senate, but it was still an impressive response to the governor's arrogant overreach...

Had Democrats won one more district, they would control the Senate, but they were also trying to send a warning to Republican lawmakers around the country who are trying to break public employee unions. In that, they succeeded.

Mickey Kaus spins the election the other way.

Unions Lose Again in Wisconsin: It looks as if the organized labor movement has failed to recall enough Wisconsin Republicans to regain control of the state senate. That's

a) in an off-year election where union turnout usually makes the difference

b) in famously progressive Wisconsin

c) after spending many millions

d) with a nationwide media and organizing push

e) when labor had a galvanizing issue in Gov. Scott Walker's direct assault on the institutional collective bargaining power of public employees, which led to a dramatic walkout by Democrats.

It looks to me like the ball spins both ways with equal ease. More important is the simple fact that Wisconsin Democrats have failed three times in a row: they couldn't stop Walker's bill, they lost the Supreme Court election, and they failed to take control of the State Senate. That doesn't sound as terribly ominous for Union busters as the NYT's would have it.

Craig Gilbert, Washington Bureau Chief of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, puts it like this in an interview with Margret Warner on PBS Newshour:

Well, I think one reason Democrats did fall short is because that they were playing on Republican turf. Five of the six districts were Republican districts. That's what happens when you try to recall an incumbent in the other party.

And also the other thing that happened was Republican voters turned out to be just as motivated as Democratic voters. We didn't know that going in. We knew Democrats and their labor allies were very jacked up about this election. They were up in arms over Gov. Walker's agenda.

But Gov. Walker is arguably the most polarizing governor in America, in terms of his almost unanimous support among Republicans and his unanimous opposition among Democrats. And that brings out people on both sides.

That is the story. Republicans were just as motivated as Democrats." Public union members furious about threats to their benefits were met with other citizens equally furious about government spending. . In "famously progressive Wisconsin," the mobilized, funded, and furious Democrats can't quite win.

It is not easy to see how the situation improves for Democrats. They will almost certainly attempt a recall of Governor Walker with no reason to suppose they will have better luck. At some point voters will realize that the Democrats are using the recall process to produce nonstop election campaigns and those same voters may be very weary of the process by that time.

Comments

[Jimi]

I suspect Wisconsinites are not nearly as progressive as they think they are. I think they like the rhetoric, and I think they understand that there was once a time and a place for the Union domination, but are realizing that the Unions have cried "Wolf" too many times are probably doing more damage than good.

Of course, I think that the turn aorund in the economics of Wisconsin, has made them realize that Walker and the Conservatives aren't the villian they are consistantly made out to be.....that tends to make the other side look foolish.

[Donald Pay]

Walker's recall is guaranteed. The election results showed slippage for conservative Republicans, and the trends point to gains statewide for Democrats.

First, Republicans lost two Senate seats. Three would have given Democrats the majority, but two means extremist ALEC/Koch efforts no longer have a lock on Senate votes. With moderate Republican Schultz sometimes voting with them, the Democrats can stop the extreme Koch agenda. For example, Schultz voted against stripping collective bargaining rights. It's over for Walker extremism. Now he's got to behave in a more reasonable way, or risk gridlock.

Second, most of the TV spots put up in support of the Republican candidates emphasized Democratic themes. They ran away from their confrontational approach to strip people of rights.

Third, Republicans figured out they made a big mistake with voter ID. The oldsters are pissed.

Fourth, the rural vote started trending less Republican. Announcing the closure of rural Department of Motor Vehicle offices pissed off rural voters. Noting that, just before the vote, the DMV announced it was reversing its decision.

Fifth, the cuts to education Walker made have not showed up yet. When they do, Walker will lose more suburban and rural voters,

Sixth, Walker is already beginning to back peddle, trying to appear less belligerent and more reasonable. For example, he had refused to meet with Madison's mayor. Now he's trying to find ways to work with him and others.

Seventh, while the recalls were going on, the Republican-Koch extremist agenda stalled, and they wasted a lot of money, time and effort to lose two seats. The right dumped huge amounts of money in to save Darling, which should have been a sure thing.

If you add up the total votes cast in all the recalls so far, it's fifty-fifty. That may sound like Republicans are doing OK given all the controversy, but doing fifty-fifty in mostly Republican areas indicates the Democrats will be able to recall Walker fairly easily.

[George Mason]

What will happen next year is that Joe Wisconsin Taxpayer will look across the street at his public employee neighbor and see that he is still living in the same comfortable house, driving the same comfortable car taking the same comfortable 9 weeks of vacation along with all the Monday holidays and Joe Wisconsin Taxpayer is going to say to himself, "these people lied to us. They are not starving, homeless and naked because the Governor and legislature ended the corrupt practices of public union contracts. The state government is now on a sound fiscal base and the state economy is growing." Walker and the Republicans will win going away.
The ads I saw exhibited the undemocratic tendencies of the Dems, and pointed up the positive results achieved by the Republicans. Of course I actually listened to the ads.

[DDC]

Koch Koch Kooooooooooooooooooooooooch!!!

It's so cute that the left has found a bogeyman to replace Bush.

[J Rae]

So what was the breakdown of spending from outside groups...and who were they?

[duggersd]

I was reading last week that the Republicans expected to lose two seats in the recall. One was in a highly Democrat district and the other due to a personal scandal. Even then the results were not as big as one would have expected. It will be interesting to see what happens this week. If the Dems lose even one of those seats, I think it will be significant. If they lose both, then things will be as they were before the election. I am not so sure I buy the analysis of Donald, considering his track record. I pay about as much attention to him as I do Dick Morris who told us the Republicans would take the Senate.

[Donald Pay]

The next set of Republican Senators and Governor Walker become eligible for recall in January 2012. Some want to wait for Walker's recall until November 2012, but the Republicans will lose their Senate majority in January.

[George Mason]

Donald, How do you come by your belief in Democrat ascendancy when all indicators are pointing in the opposite direction. If Walker stays his course and Obama stays on his, 2012 will be a disaster for the dems. You have a choice of responsibility or profligacy. Which will a rational person take.

[Bill Fleming]

Donald knows what Union people have always known. Time is on their side.
Their opponents are the ones who have to be in a hurry.

When you're down and out, all you have is time.

"Freedom's just another word for nothing left to lose." — Kris Kristofferson

[George Mason]

Bill; Your statement is based upon how rapidly union membership outside of government is growing correct?

[Bill Fleming]

George, Unions are in the process of reinventing and re-ligitimizing themselves.

[otnavus]

All that is being proved here in Wisconsin is how the unions have been flogging us taxpayers for years now. Local newspapers all over our state have news headings about millions of dollars being saved by school districts just from not being forced to buy union health insurance. As we see things like this happening, there is no way many of us will vote Walker out of office. We are tired of being bullied!

[Stan Gibilisco]

May I weigh in with my crystal ball data? One could mistake its featureless blue-green depths for a full Uranus. (The blue represents infinity. The green represents nausea.) I have no idea whether Walker will survive a recall or not. I have no idea of whether the Republicans or the Democrats will gain power in 2012. Both parties appear grossly, and equally, deluded and incompetent to me.

[Mark Anderson]

It's quite simple, Walker didn't campaign on what he did, he wasn't honest. Why bring up the obvious. Imagine if you did that in one your classes Mr. Blanchard.

[Ken Blanchard]

Donald: it seems like only yesterday that you were assuring us that Feingold's reelection was guaranteed.

[Bill Fleming]

I think Walker is toast, KB.

[George Mason]

The WEAC (teachers union) is reinventing itself by firing 40% of its staff after blowing their money on recalls.