For whom the bell polls

I expect the President's job approval to recover somewhat over the next year as voters really begin to juggle him in one hand and the Republican nominee in the other. As for right now, Gallup has a wonderful device for comparing approval ratings of any set of four Presidents. If I was trying to find good news for the President, this is where I would go.

At 942 days in office, here is how recent Presidents ranked in approval.

Clinton 46%
Reagan 43%
Obama 40%
Carter 32%

Bush 41 and 43 were outliers, having much better approval ratings at this point. That didn't do 41 any good in 1992. Given the four figures above, Obama isn't doing that badly. Of course, Reagan and Clinton benefited from relatively good economies. Obama cannot count on that.

It also has to be worrisome that, right now, Obama's approval rating is falling in Carter's direction. Gallup has Obama today at 54% disapprove to 38% approve. Rasmussen is giving the President better numbers now (12% deficit instead of 16%). Democracy Corps, a Democratic outfit, has the President down by 5% and CNN by 10%.

Rasmussen has some more worrying information for the Obama campaign. Rasmussen provides a sample of likely voters, a better indicator than registered voters. His large samples allow for a measure of intensity. Only 19% of the sample strongly approves of Obama's job performance, while 45% strongly disapprove. That is especially significant, since intensity indicates not only how a block will vote but the likelihood that they will vote. All nineteen and forty-five percent will turn out. That means a Republican candidate just has to get bag another six percent to get a majority of the popular vote. The standard way to put this is that, if these numbers are accurate, and if the election were held today, Obama would be toast.

Those are two big ifs. Another bit of bad news for the Hyde Park Hamlet is that potential Republican candidates have pulled ahead or almost even in the Gallup poll.

Romney 48%/Obama 46%
Perry 47%/Obama 47%
Obama 47%/Ron Paul 45%
Obama 48%/Bachmann 44%

So Romney is ahead by a hair; Perry is tied; and Obama is leading Ron Paul and Michelle Bachmann by 3 and 4% respectively. I repeat: Paul and Bachmann are within striking distance! I also note that that is among all registered voters. One wonders what the numbers would look like if Gallup was giving us likely voters.

These are not predictions are even projections. They are samples of where the President is right now. He is in trouble. I make no predictions about the election outcome. That is for my Election Shaman. I will make some broad predictions about the campaigns.

1. Unless some unforeseen event occurs (Canada launches an invasion of North Dakota and Obama personally takes command of the Fargo police force and has the invaders arrested), Obama will get no help from factors external to his administration. The economy is unlikely to surge next year.
2. The Obama Administration will not suddenly announce dramatic policies that will restore confidence in the President and in the large number of unemployed, underemployed, and "I give the Hell up" Americans.
3. The election will turn on whether the Republican nominee inspires some measure of confidence. If he or she does, Obama will not be returned.
4. Almost all of the Obama campaign's energy will be spent knocking down the Republican nominee.

That's how I see it now. Tomorrow is the first day of the rest of the 2012 campaign.

Comments

[duggersd]

When Reagan ran in 1976 & 1980, he projected a vision of America that was the "shining city upon the hill". He projected a vision of the best days of American being in front of her instead of behind. When he won in 2000, he was able to make Americans feel better about themselves and our country. He also inherited a poor economy, many would argue worse than the one inherited by Obama. However he was able to promote ideas that turned things around and we wound up with the longest peacetime expansion in history.
President Obama has a problem in that the tough economy he inherited has been made worse, primarily due to his own policies. Even if that is not true, most Americans believe it to be true. Obama does not instill confidence the way Reagan did. When Americans voted for Reagan, they could hardly wait to pull the lever for him. In 2008, those who supported Obama could hardly wait to pull the lever for him. Witness his poll numbers at the beginning of his administration. In 2012, I predict Americans will be able to hardly wait to pull the lever for someone else--anybody else. I am hoping, however, that Americans will be voting FOR the next President and not AGAINST President Obama. I see one or two who can do that. Others contenders will just have us voting against Obama. And in 2013, Obama will have that look on his face that he can hardly wait to get out of that White House.

[George Mason]

Dugger; Not only did Reagan have the Winthrop vision of a "Shining City on a Hill" he had concrete plans to "get the government out of peoples lives," as well as confronting our enemies abroad. President Teleprompter has no plans and never has had any. As stated in a previous post he has no capacity for leadership and he will not develop that over the next year. We will get a lot of whining, finger pointing and charges of racism. It's all he has.

[duggersd]

No argument there. I really hope when the Republicans choose their standard bearer, they do have someone who instills the confidence Reagan did. While I think they can win by voting against Obama, it will say so much more if they are voting for his opponent.

[Stan Gibilisco]

If Donald Trump runs as an independent (thinking that he can win), then Barack Obama will win the election no matter who the Republicans nominate.

[Ivan]

The Donald is a businessman, there is no way he would be the cause of four more years of hopeless misery.

[Ed Hardy clothes]

Outstanding report not to mention very easy towards realize explanation.

[Dave]

Occam’s razor: The simplest answer is most often correct

Obama's numbers are in the tank because he has alienated the left by failing to lead on progressive issues and catering to the right...

[Ken Blanchard]

Dave: you have Occam wrong. He was in favor of simplicity, not wishful thinking. The intensity of strong opposition to Obama does not represent any significant portion of the left.

[Dave]

Ken, your response is quite funny, ironic even. Perhaps you should read that again and think about it for a minute...

The problem with so many people is that they have ready answers for what other people are thinking...

But that is your goal, right? To manipulate how your readers interpret the news.

[Ken Blanchard]

Dave: who the Hell am I manipulating? My purpose here is to express my opinions and let my readers chew into them. It seems to be working.

[Dave]

Ken, when some one (on the left) who once supported the President tells you why they no longer support him, you might take a second and listen rather than denying the statement to make things fit your "wishful" scenario.