Reasonability and the Runaway Republican Bride

Republicans and Democrats still have not reached an agreement on their debate over raising the debt ceiling. President Obama is blaming Republicans. According to The Atlantic, he is voicing his exasperation by asking, “Can they say yes to anything?”

The President is joined in his criticism of Republicans by Senator Tom Harkin, who has tried to demonize those who oppose raising the debt ceiling, by calling them a “cult fringe”.

In fact, we know what Republicans will say yes to. So does the president and so does Harkin. Boehner and the Republicans are the ones who came to the debate with a plan already laid out. They have been clear about what they will accept.

And while Harkin declares that the Republicans are the only ones who will let the country “go down the tubes” by defaulting, the Democrats can also save us from default, by accepting Boehner’s last offer. Therefore, one could just as easily argue that government spending is more important to Harkin and company than saving America from default. One might, also, just as easily ask whether or not the Democrats could say yes to anything.

So far, they have said no every offer The Republicans have given them. And although Democrats like Harkin have tried to paint Republicans as unreasonable, a recent poll conducted by The Hill suggests that his attempts at demonization have been unsuccessful. Indeed, Sean J. Miller says the following:

A new poll conducted for The Hill showed 41 percent polled said the GOP had been “more reasonable,” while 29 percent said Democrats had been more sensible. Twenty-two percent said neither party was more reasonable than the other, and 7 percent were not sure.

  I suspect that much of this has to do with the way representatives from both parties have conducted themselves. Democrats like Harkin come off looking angry and frustrated, while Boehner and Bachmann have come out looking relatively calm. But some of it probably has to do with the fact that the Republicans seem more willing than Democrats to address the ills of overspending, which lie at the heart of the problem.

Obama declares that he has been “left at the altar” twice now. When a groom spends more of his time criticizing his bride than he does preparing for his wedding – can he really be surprised when she runs away?

Comments

[Bill Fleming]

Miranda, it's usually best to look at a wide array of polls rather than just picking one out that seems to say what you want to hear. If you work your way through this data, I think you'll come up with quite a different analysis of the situation than the one you appear to hold currently.

http://pollingreport.com/budget.htm

[Jimi]

Bill,

Your comparing Apples and Oranges! The question refered to in Miranda's Post is "Who is more 'Reasonable" on 'Spending Cuts'" Miranda's Poll is from March 31st.

Your link offers no relevent question similar to that specific wording.

After reviewing the polling offered by your link, there is no clear winner between Republicans and Democrats in the eyes of the Public. I might point out that all these polls are among "All Adults," which weakens them considerably, and they should not be taken that serious. Polling amongst Registered Voters with a full sample, and evenly split skews these numbers clearly in the Republicans favor for similar questions relevent to spending, debt, and deficit. If the vote were held today Obama would lose by a landslide, and Republicans would most likley get a large majorities in the House and Senate.......but still long way to go till the election, and things could change.

[Miranda]

Thanks, Jimi.

Bill: You are right that I should have included more polls in my analysis, rather than simply looking at the one I saw first. For that, I apologize. Most of the polls you cite do not ask a question similar to the one the poll on The Hill asks, however, the CNN poll does seem to show a conflicting result. On the other hand, the results of the CNN poll also seem to conflict with one another. More to come later - I appreciate your feedback.

[Donald Pay]

I don't trust any politician who is reasonable in the face of fascism. The Republican Party is a cult.

[Jimi]

Donald,

So your admitting that the Democratic Party is "Facist?"

[Jimi]

Donald,

So your admitting that the Democratic Party is "Facist?"

[Bill Fleming]

Jimi, my suggestion is to look at all the data.

In that sense, I am perhaps comparing all the various fruit and vegetable polls in order to discern the political appetite of my fellow citizens.

The takeaway for you today is, why drag out a hackneyed cliché and beat it to death when there are so many opportunities to broaden your horizons and extend your metaphors?

Be a little creative, Jimi. What could it hurt, brother?

[Bill Fleming]

Looking forward to your next analysis, Miranda.
Perhaps you will enjoy this one by Nate Silver in the meantime:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/07/25/speaker-boehners-big-gamble/

[Jimi]

Bill,

Are you familiar with the "Bradley Effect" in polling. There are similiar/other polling effects which I suspect will play a major role in the 2012 election. There is no question the Bradley effect will come into play in 2012. Of course, it has been a known fact for so many years now, that the Democratic Party and it's Marxist Machine and Union Thuggery participate in election fraud, and they will use the "Bradley Effect" to their advantage. Decmorats would have never controlled so many cities, states, and federal elections without these anti-American strategies. But as some of my friends on the Left like to say, "A Win is a Win." Not sure about you, but I have never told the truth to a pollster in my life!

Good Election Fraud Stories:

http://startthinkingright.wordpress.com/2010/10/29/election-fraud-if-you-vote-democrat-you-are-a-corrupt-dishonest-cheat-by-proxy/

The Bradley Effect:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect

[Bill Fleming]

Yes, I am familiar with the Bradley effect, Jimi. It means some people are less than candid when they take take opinion polls. That's why it's smart to look for trends in multiple polls rather than put all your eggs in one basket just because you agree with that particular polls results. Reading polls is both an art and a science.

I myself have been less than completely honest when taking a poll, oftentimes telling the pollster that I am undecided in order to get more information from the candidate they're polling for. Sometimes, when I'm working for the polling candidates opponent, I'll do this for strategic reasons so I can see what my competitor is doing. Other times I just do it out of sheer curiosity. And sometimes, I actually tell the truth about how I intend to vote, and then change my mind when I get into the ballot box.

Good pollsters take all of those things into account. That's why they always have a margin of error, and various weighting techniques.

By the way, Jimi, there is nothing wrong with being less than truthful on a poll. It's just your opinion at that moment, subject to change the next moment. If you could come to understand that, you might be a less angry, hostile person.

[Miranda Flint]

Bill: I hope you will pardon me for my slow response. I have been trying to recover my basement from a bit of flooding. You were right to chastise me for writing such a hasty response to one poll. The data you provide is certainly more interesting.

As Jimi notes, most of the polls cited do not ask the same question that The Hill's survey asked. Nor do they poll the same sampling. But the one that comes closest is the CNN Poll, which, as I note above, is curious, because some of its results seem to contradict one another. When asked if Democrats or Republicans are more to blame for the country's economic problems, those polled blamed the Democrats (by a slight margin).

However, when the names of Bush and Obama are introduced in an almost identical question, the answer is "Bush and the Republicans." It's hard to know for certain why these answers are contradictory. Perhaps it's just a fluke, but I would suggest that it might more to do with anti-Bush sentiment than the debate at hand. The names of Bush and Obama were the only things that seem to have changed.

On the relevant questions, which ask whether or not Obama has behaved responsibly regarding the debt ceiling and whether or not Republicans have behaved responsibly, I concede that the answer looks like it might contradict the result from the poll at The Hill. I note, however, that the question of whether or not _Democrats_ in Congress have behaved responsibly is missing.

I also note that if the poll were taken today, the answer might be different. At first, Obama took a position that separated himself from both the Democrats and the Republicans. He attempted to portray himself as a moderator, who was willing to work with both sides to make a reasonable deal. The president has acted very differently recently. He has begun siding more with the Democrats and has become more hostile toward his opponents, rather than working with them. When Obama took a more even-handed approach to deliberations, there was good reason for voters to see him as reasonable and responsible. But I would suggest then, that the result might be different if the survey were taken now. It might also be different if it actually included other Democrats - like Tom Harkin. Still, I conceded that some of your other polls do suggest that those polled had a more favorable view of Democrats than Republicans, or, at least that they did on the 18th.

Having said that, I now notice that the poll I thought was new (because it flashed across The Hill's ticker as if it were breaking news) is quite a bit older than the polls you cite. So there's another reason for me to feel a bit foolish.

Nevertheless, it is interesting to note that even the polls that seem to show that Americans have a negative view of seem to show that voters are, by and large, sympathetic to most of the ideas the Republicans are putting forth. You first poll, for instance, shows that more Republicans favor spending cuts alone than taxation alone, although most want both. It also suggests that Americans are more concerned a about rampant spending than they are about defaulting. There is also a good deal more support for increased taxation than I might have thought.

[Bill Fleming]

Hope you get your basement back in shape, Miranda. Good thinking in your analysis. We're now officially on the same page.

[Bill Fleming]

A recent, high quality set of polling data for your perusal, Miranda.
I would say that this poll runs completely counter to the poll you cited
and I assume you would agree.Now, which to trust?

http://pewresearch.org/pubs/2071/debt-limit-ceiling-tea-party-compromise-deficit-reduction

[Jimi]

BIll,

"If you could come to understand that, you might be a less angry, hostile person."

Like you have any idea who I am or what I'm all about! But nice try!

[Bill Fleming]

You are the information you provide, Jimi. Your information is angry.

[Jimi]

Bill,

"Your information is angry."

Really? I don't know why...I gathered it very nicely, and bought it flowers. It's because it knew you were never gonna understand it, and it felt betrayed.

Say your sorry!

[Bill Fleming]

You don't "gather" information, you ARE information.

[Bill Fleming]

More data for your files, Miranda.
Not looking good for the GOP position.
http://pollingreport.com/budget.htm

[Miranda]

"I gathered it very nicely, and bought it flowers. It's because it knew you were never gonna understand it, and it felt betrayed."

Ha! Thanks for the laugh, Jimi.

Bill: Thanks for the polls and the correction. I'm afraid you're right.