Republicans Winning the Battle of the Budget Plans

When Paul Ryan produced a budget plan that included serious cuts to Medicare, recognized laws of political physics suggested two things. One was that the voters and especially the elderly would turn on the GOP. The other was that Republicans would buckle and run screaming in all directions.

Given that, we are apparently witnessing a miracle. House Republicans have stood firm so far behind the Ryan plan. Instead, it is the Democrats who continue to fragment. From the Washington Post:

A growing number of Democrats are threatening to defy the White House over the national debt, joining Republican calls for deficit cuts as a requirement for consenting to lift the country's borrowing limit.

Meanwhile, the great reversal of fortunes for the GOP has yet to be realized. Instead, the GOP is polling pretty well. In a recent Gallup/USAToday poll, Republicans were favored over Democrats on 5 of 6 major issues (health care was the lone exception).

On the economy, Republicans were favored by six points. On the budget, Republicans were ahead by a whopping twelve points!

Something almost as striking appears when you breakdown responders by age. When Gallup asked people whether they favored the Ryan Plan or President Obama's budget proposal, Americans split evenly. Given the conventional wisdom referred to above, that alone is good news for the GOP.

However, the only age group that favored Obama was the 18 to 29 group. Americans between the ages of 30 and 49 favored the Ryan plan by 6 points. Americans over 50 favored the Ryan plan by another whopping 10-12%.

That is significant for two big reasons. The older groups are the ones most likely to come out and vote. Right now, no one expects the Democrats to turn out younger voters in the way that they did in 2008.

More important is the fact that the older voters are those most invested, literally, in Medicare. What does it mean that voters favor the Ryan Plan over the Obama response in proportion to age and likelihood of voting?

It doesn't mean that these voters are ready to embrace steep cuts in Medicare or Rep. Ryan's voucher idea. They aren't. That's like asking someone to vote in favor of exercise and a diet. At the same time, voters favor spending cuts over tax increases. Will support for the Ryan plan hold when people see what they will actually have to give up? It is not hard to imagine the contrary.

What these poll numbers suggest is that the most politically active and invested voters really do recognize that the U.S. is facing a very serious fiscal crisis. They recognize that something has to be done. They also recognize that the Republicans are genuinely addressing the issue and that the President and his party are not.

The House Republicans have done a very bold thing. Just right now they winning.

Comments

[Donald Pay]

I would be willing to bet most people don't know much about what's in either plan, so polling like this is really pretty misleading.

[Ken Blanchard]

Yeah, that's what Paul Ryan would say if the polls went in the other direction. But that is missing the point. The Democrats are gambling that "most people" will instinctively side with them, as they are protecting public benefits. It ain't happening that way so far.

[Donald Pay]

People always support spending cuts over tax increases. Then you ask the next question, and the next and the next. Here's what you find: people want tax fairness (Ie., a return to progressive tax policies), and they want politicians to leave medicare and social security alone. Move on.

[Dave]

Hmmm... Ken does a good job of towing the corporate media line, but if you take a few minutes and do an internet check of town halls it looks like a mirror image of the tea party town halls only this time the republic(an) party are getting shouted down...
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/05/01/tax-spending-town-halls_n_855983.html

[Dave]

Here's and idea, How bout NOT spending $ like this?

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/01/world/asia/01road.html?_r=1

[Stan Gibilisco]

In my opinion, Donald (May 1, 8:04:49 PM) is absolutely right. Moving on to the logical conclusion: We Americans in general want stuff but we don't want to pay for it. Hmmm. That attitude got us into this recession, didn't it?

I've heard more than one person suggest that we, the people, emulate the behavior of our politicians. They're irresponsible, and we use them as examples; ergo, we're irresponsible too. I suggest the opposite: We're irresponsible, and we elect them; ergo, they are irresponsible too.

Spending cuts, tax increases, or both: It is all meaningless unless we can get into the habit of spending no more than we take in, individually and collectively.

Duh.

[Jimi]

Donald,

"(i.e: a return to progressive tax policies)"

Go thru the numbers. If you pretend like the tax cut for the wealthy never existed, you only would have a gain of $675 Billion over 10 years or 67.5 Billion a year, and that is assuming you would have had the same positive economic effect the tax cut gave us, when we were in the last reccession in 2001-2002. That is not even close to what we need to close the gaps. You only have three options. Raise taxes on the lower middle class, where most of the tax cut benefit was and reform entitlements, or cut spending elsewhere, or a combination of both.