Wisconsin Court Election 2

Once again from the top: From ABC:

On Wednesday, liberal challenger JoAnne Kloppenburg, an assistant attorney general, had appeared to eke out an upset -- besting Prosser by 204 votes in an unofficial tally. But officials in heavily Republican Waukesha county now say they discovered a counting error that, when rectified, gives Prosser an additional 7,582 votes.

Let's face it: if the numbers were reversed, Republicans would be in full tilt conspiracy mode right now. No one can blame Democrats for being in the same mind. Do the added votes for Prosser pass the smell test?

Craig Gilbert, at the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, does an excellent job of answering this question.

[B]efore the "adjustment," Waukesha County was a big outlier. It showed by far the largest drop-off in turnout between the 2010 race for governor last fall and Tuesday's judicial race (from about 63% to 37%, for a decline of 26 points). After the adjustment, the drop-off is still one of the biggest in the state (from 63% to 42%), but not freakishly so. The statewide drop-off in turnout rate was 16 points, from 50% to 34%.

Adding the Brookfield numbers makes Waukesha County turnout numbers less surprising. Gilbert also places the Brookfield numbers in context, and again they look plausible. Unless evidence surfaces of mischief in the actual vote counting, it looks like Prosser won fair and square.

Not a lot in institutional terms. A Supreme Court Justice JoAnne Kloppenburg wouldn't have blocked the Governor's bill for long. In moral terms, it means a lot. Politico's Arena invited a number of pundits, professors, and political activists to analyze the Wisconsin court election, just before the Waukesha County surprise.

Democratic pollster Margie Omero has this:

This is absolutely a rebuke of Walker and his policies. Polls show voters in Wisconsin have buyers' remorse, and this is the first opportunity they have to express it. But it's not just Wisconsin. Voters around the country have shown support for workers' rights. And Republicans nationally, and in states around the country, are greatly overplaying their hands. This climate is mobilizing the left and will quickly alienate independents.

Clyde Prestowitz, President of the Economic Strategy Institute, says:

This is a clear repudiation of Walker's policies.

Well, if a two hundred vote victory for Kloppenburg is "absolutely a rebuke of Walker and his policies," is a seven thousand vote victory absolutely an affirmation of Walker and his policies?

It is interesting to try to game these results, if they hold. In an ordinary court election, the incumbent would win by a large margin. It is beyond doubt that this election turned into a Walker referendum. What was the result? With or without the Brookfield vote, the result was very nearly fifty-fifty out of a million and a half votes cast.

The judicial election revealed the political fault lines in the state. Milwaukee and Madison went heavily for Kloppenburg. College students and public employees voted conservatively, against reform. More traditionally conservative parts of the state came out big for Prosser. Prosser, it seems, won. That is the meaning of this election.

Comments

[Miranda]

"Well, if a two hundred vote victory for Kloppenburg is ‘absolutely a rebuke of Walker and his policies’, is a seven thousand vote victory absolutely an affirmation of Walker and his policies?"

What I would give to see a newscaster ask this!

[William]

In this particular battleground, the Prosser victory means a lot.

THIS was the accumulated strength of the "union" turnout. The political clout, funded by mandatory union "dues", was focused on this election, like no other.

Close, but "no cigar", to the union entrenched state of Wisconsin.

[Donald Pay]

I think most outside pundits get this wrong. The past three election cycles have seen the spring (non-partisan) elections take on increasingly partisan tones. It began with efforts in the early 2000s by corporate interests and conservatives to take over the Supreme Court. The corporate elites dumped huge amounts of money to buy Supreme Court seats. Although the political left has been engaged in spring election efforts, the board middle class had basically ignored them. Turnout was low. This year the middle class started fighting back against the corporate dominated right.

Kloppenberg wasn't the candidate endorsed by the left. She was a moderate, little-known Assistant AG who came through the primary because the candidates of the left split the vote. She was expected to get beat pretty handily by the politically-connected Prosser. Then Walker, the corporate elite's regime in Madison, started attacking middle class interests and values. What happened was the middle class woke up, and participated in the election.

I don't know if the results in Waukesha County will stand up. The country clerk has engaged in similiar "mistakes" before.

[Ken Blanchard]

Donald. Again I have to ask: what color is the sky in your world? "Kloppenberg wasn't the candidate endorsed by the left." She was on this planet! Go to that Politico Arena site, which only posts terrestrial voices. The Left went head over heels in love with her. Why? Because she wasn't Prosser/Walker.

Language like "the corporate elite" insulates one from reality. The "Union elite" poured money in on the other side.

I believe in mandates like I believe in the Planet Pays, but the outcome is hardly a sign of a middle class rising against Republicans. It was the middle class splitting along traditional lines.

[Ken Blanchard]

Miranda: I would like to see Politico revisit this with some of the same people.

William: you can still spin this both ways, but it is significant that the unions couldn't come up with a majority after all the recent excitement.

[Donald Pay]

KB, I happened to have voted in the Feb 15 primary, and I don't think you had a clue what was going on in Wisconsin at that time, or since. Your banner says "South Dakota Politics," but you spend more time trying and failing to analyze Wisconsin politics, which you obviously do not understand. You seem to rely on pundits and non-Wisconsin websites for your information, and some of it may be accurate on a surface level, but most of it lacks any real depth of knowledge.

Let me point out that you have not mentioned the other candidates vying in the Supreme Court primary race. Perhaps you might want to tell use about Joel Winnig and Marla Stephens, the candidates supported by the Left. Let me help you out here, since it is unlikely your sources know squat about this. Winning actually showed up at the first protest on Feb 14, when UW Teaching Assistants and supporters marched down State Street to deliver Valentines in opposition to SB 11 to Legislators. Stephens had most of the endorsements from the left rounded up early, but Winnig was enough of a legal maverick to attract many of the activists. Kloppenberg had support from the moderates, and from a good contingent of the legal community (she was not only an Assistant AG, but taught at the UW law school). See, I did my homework on the candidates prior to voting in the Feb 15 primary. Did you? I voted for Winning, because he's a thorn in the side of the Wisconsin legal establishment. The left split between Stephens and Winnig. The moderates and the legal establishment went for Kloppenberg.

Of course after the election liberals and the middle class had to gravitate to one of the candidates, or stay home, and they decided to vote for Kloppenberg.

Tell us, KB, what was the difference in third party spending? The elite and their sycophants likes to yell "Union" money, but why don't you tell us what the breakdown in money actually was, or are you afraid to speak the truth?

[Stan Gibilisco]

Ken:

"...it is significant that the unions couldn't come up with a majority after all the recent excitement."

Yes, but let's not forget the significance of the fact that they almost did.

The Wisconsin situation vividly illustrates the near-even split, and the vast gulf, between the left and the right that now prevails in this country.

One might extrapolate and begin to believe that America could eventually find itself in a civil war.

I'm glad that I live in a rural part of a sparsely populated state. The violence will probably come here last, if at all.

[Ken Blanchard]

Donald: you are right about one thing. South Dakota Politics is not, mostly, about South Dakota Politics. It's about national politics and whatever I feel like blogging about.

I am happy to have you inform us about the Feb. 15th primary. At that point, no one was paying attention. It was the April election that drew national attention and, yes, lots of outside money. I have paid attention to the general election like everyone else. In that election, which side was the left in WI and elsewhere on? I am guessing that you also voted last week. Who did you vote for? That was my point.

Why do you want to deflect from the obvious fact? Because the left lost. You are trying to weasel out by claiming that you were never really in. If Kloppenburg had won, you'd be singing a very different song.

[Rintojen Kasvattaminen]

Graig Gilbert just seems to always have something interesting to say!

http://www.rintojensuurennus.net/

[William]

Only if you're Finnish and think your breasts are too small =|;0)

[George]

I think folkbum probbaly has it right. I can't believe they would do something this blatant nor stupid. But then again, it is republicans. My belief that there may be something here is based on my total distrust of WI republicans under Walker and how stupid they are, rather than, you know, facts. The real deals are the recalls and I have read in some comments on local blogs that the voting night blunder was done to throw cold water on them. If that was the case, I believe you would have some type of criminal charge for the County Clerk who willfully misled the public by holding onto votes. And if they thought it would demoralize the dems it has done the opposite, given even more reason to get out there and gather signatures. Just another in what seems to be an endless list of examples that we are governed in this state by a bunch of reactionary neanderthals. There will be some who will never believe that Prosser was actually elected and that the election was not stolen. Folkbum: congrats on the new county exec, must be a good feeling after, what, six years of Scott Walker.

[Slavisa]

, the Milwaukee and Madison newspapers were my soecrus. As of Friday their news stories (and opinion pieces) weren't offering any corroboration of the found vote count. Outside of WI, the media (except for Fox News) are ignoring the sudden reversal of outcome, or at least (CNN, for instance) fail to provide clear information on how the reversal came about.In the Wisconsin newspapers, the analysis has been self-contradictory; the situation both is and is not a miscount ; Prosser has clearly won, and his win is clearly questionable. That leaves me convinced the found/misreported votes need intense scrutiny.It sounds like the recount ought to be limited to the city of Brookfield, to clear up the confusion. If all the votes are found, game over. If they aren't (which sounds unlikely from what you're saying), only then would a full recount be justified. I won't hold my breath. If Prosser has been re-elected, I'm really sorry to hear it. I wish Wisconsin better luck in the future. I hope the recalls succeed.