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Wednesday, April 06, 2011



Ah yes, the "extreme" "budget slashing" plan that increases spending by 2.8% per year (with projected 2.1% inflation) over the next 10 years. Ryan's newest plan doesn't even balance the budget for more than 20 years, after we've built up an additional $8+ trillion in debt.

They think we're stupid.

Bill Fleming

Bill: If so, then let's drop the extension of the Bush tax cuts and keep the rest of Ryan's plan. You in?

Jon S.


I have read the CBO report. I will post the link below. I can find no evidence for the claim that the Ryan plan will increase the deficit. Granted, I did not read word-for-word. Perhaps I missed something. Would you follow the link and show me where it says the plan will increase the deficit? The report analyzes what it calls the extended base-line scenario (current law extended into the future), the alternative fiscal scenario (the scenario in which likely policy choices such as extending the Bush tax cuts and the "doc fix" occur) and the "proposal" (Ryan's plan). They mark the deficit at five dates: 2010 actual, and estimates in 2022, 2030, 2040 and 2050. I can find no evidence that shows the Ryan deficits higher than either of the two other scenarios. In fact, the report says: "Those differences in specified growth rates [in entitlements] are the fundamental reason why CBO projects that deficits and debt will be much smaller." This is on page 14 of the document (or page 16 as the pdf counts).
under the proposal than under either of CBO’s long-term budget scenarios. What is true, I suppose, is that if Ryan did not extend the tax cuts AND engaged in spending controls, the deficits would be even less, but nowhere does it say that the deficit will be higher under Ryan's plan than under either of the other two scenario's analyzed. Again, I am prepared to believe I have missed something. Please show me what and where.

The article which you link to says "Ryan has claimed that his budget would save $6.2 trillion from the federal deficit over the first 10 years." My guess is the authors don't know the difference between deficit and debt. Deficits, as you probably know, occur on an annual basis while debt is the total amount owed. What Ryan projects is a cut in the total DEBT compared to some other projection (I don't know if it is current law, Obama's budget, or what). Meanwhile the article states that, a-ha!, the deficit will rise slightly in 2012 under Ryan's plan (I can find no evidence, btw, that the CBO report says this. A search for "2012" finds three results, none of them relevant. Perhaps it says "next year" somewhere and I missed it, but I think it says nothing about the 2012 deficit). These are not contradictory. His plan may provide for a slight deficit next year with nine years of declining deficits totaling $6.2 trillion less than some other baseline (again, I don't know that baseline and am not taking the time to look it up).

But this is all academic, in a way. Bill, if you don't like Ryan's plan, you must HATE Obama's budget because it adds far more to the debt than does Ryan's. Perhaps you love the congressional Democrat's budget because, after all, they don't have one and haven't had one for over a year. We have three choices: significant reductions in projected entitlement spending, significant increases in taxation on everyone, or some combination. Ryan has chosen #1. What does Mr. Flemming propose?

Here is the CBO report: http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/121xx/doc12128/04-05-Ryan_Letter.pdf

Jon S.

Typepad ate one sentence of my post. It said: CBO shows deficits lower at every turn under the proposal than under either of CBO’s long-term budget scenarios.

larry kurtz

The Ryan budget is a distraction from Koch Earth rape: http://www.opensecrets.org/politicians/contrib.php?cycle=2010&cid=N00004357&type=C

larry kurtz

Stop the GOP Earth-haters: http://motherjones.com/blue-marble/2011/04/epas-moment-truth



I love it how you guys on the left believe you're pure like the wind driven snow, and everybody else is evil.....Get A Clue or some Medication!

larry kurtz

Darth jimi: i love it when you on The Right soil yerselves.


Another defect in the CBO modeling is simply that it doesn't (can't) account for human behavior. IF, one believes that a less onerous tax policy increases entrepreneurship and, thus jobs, then a reduction in tax rates does not INCREASE debt, but will ultimately REDUCE IT by increasing tax revenue, if there's no corresponding increase in spending. The "Reagan tax cuts" DID increase revenue, but Federal spending increased at a greater rate.

Ongoing government deficits and debt are NOT the result of too little TAXING, it's a result of too much SPENDING!

Obviously, some people believe we're not "taxed enough", the "rich" don't pay enough, that corporations "pay" taxes, etc. I've just never seen anything in history to support that viewpoint. "Eventually, you run out of other people's money to spend..." (Margaret Thatcher)

Ryan's plan, at worst, reduces the level of government spending far below the trajectory it's currently on. Whatever flaws it may have, that IS the direction we have to take to avoid the far harsher consequences reality will force on us if we choose to continue down the path we're on.

As far as I'm concerned, we pay for far more government than we need and the government we have is not worth a fraction of what we're paying for it.


Jon S.

It does seem as if the author of the article that Bill linked to was confused between deficits & debt. It also appears as though they don't know the difference between 70% and 100% is. We just hit the point where our national debt equals our GDP. That means 100%, not 70%.

Oh well, we're only adding another $1.3 trillion additional in debt this year. Nothing could possibly go wrong, could it?


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