For Whom the Bell Polls

The Republican wave that swept away Democrats in Washington and across the state legislatures and state houses was first visible in November of 2009. The elections of Republican governors in Virginia and New Jersey were shortly followed by the election of Republican Scott Brown to replace Ted Kennedy in Massachusetts. The wave was clearly visible in primary elections for the rest of 2010. The reelection of David Prosser to the Wisconsin Supreme Court suggests that the wave has not yet subsided to the point that it can be resisted.

Electoral events are far more reliable indicators than polls, but polls are all we have when it comes to Presidential elections. I make no predictions. I have my election shaman for that. I will point out that the President is not in a strong position.

Gallup has Obama's overall approval rating down to 41%, which ties his previous bottom in August and October 2010. Fifty percent of Americans disapprove of the job Obama is doing as President. That is not good, not matter how you cut it. Pollster, now at the Huffington Post, lists the major polls as they are announced, and the numbers are similar across the board. Obama is stuck in the forties and maybe in the wee forties.

Jay Cost has some thoughts on this.

If you look carefully at Obama's job approval numbers, you'll notice that they are being propped up by strong support among Democrats. In last week's Gallup poll, for instance, Obama was holding 80 percent of Democrats, and just 39 percent of independents and 11 percent of Republicans, for a total job approval of 45 percent. Given that most party battles happen between the 45 yard lines, the Gallup numbers suggest that most of the voters that both sides actively play for are no longer on Obama's side, at least for now.

What Obama cannot suffer is a drop in support among Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents. That's how he could fall from the mid-40s into the high-30s. And that makes a huge psychological difference – like the price of oil going above $100. A president in the mid-40s is still in the game vis-à-vis the next election. A president in the 30s is flailing.

Obama has not yet suffered a fall into the 30% approval range, but he has precious little margin for error. He has suffered defections among all three of the major demographic groups.

The President's approval rating has fallen into the seventies among Democrats. Gallup has found that his approval has fallen even among Black Americans, from highs in the 90's to 85%. A 54% majority of Hispanics still approve of the President. A mere 39% of "non-Hispanic whites" approve.

The numbers that should worry the President most are those reported by independents. Only 35% of independents approve of the job the President is doing.

Two things, I think, are dragging the President's approval rating down. One is the intervention in Libya. Whatever you think of the wisdom of intervening, the Administration's handling of the affair doesn't inspire confidence. It just isn't clear what the President wants to do or how he intends to do it. To be fair, not a lot of Americans are paying much attention to this. That doesn't mean that they have no impression of the President's leadership or lack thereof.

The other thing is the fiscal dilemma. Jay Cost thinks that the President's speech on Wednesday was aimed solely at Democrats. He meant to assure them that he would resolutely oppose any reductions in Federal spending and would support only tax increases on the rich. That means that he has given up on independent voters, who normally decide elections.

That seems right. The question is whether it is working. Maybe the weakening in Democratic support came because the President agreed to marginal cuts in present spending in the recent budget deal. In that case, the President's speech may revive his support on the left.

Maybe the weakening of support across the board indicates a loss of confidence in the President's leadership. That is obviously the case among independents. Independent voters have a clear sense of the fiscal crisis and they expect the President to take charge in fixing it. He ain't, and they know it. What if that same sense is beginning to eat into the Democratic share of the electorate?

The Republicans have yet to produce a viable candidate for President. They may well fail to do so, and Obama will be elected by default. Just right now, that seems to be what he is hoping for.

Comments

[George Mason]

There can be little doubt that the Wednesday speech with all of its marxist allusions was to, as the media states, shore up the base. The lines that obama keeps drawing in the sand are soon blown away by his bloviating following the latest poll numbers. Our new deficit hawk in chief's new plan will be to demonize Paul Ryan. Ryan actually has a plan to address the real issues. The Obama plan is status quo with destruction of the productive members of our society added in. At least for this week.

[Barton Fink]

I loved the President's speech, and I hope that he can regain the support of his party and of the independents who put him into office. Seriously, do the Republicans believe that Bachmann or Trump or whatever, um, personage they finally settle on is going to be popular at all with the American electorate? People hate Bachmann and Palin, and they laugh at Romney and that Arkansas preacher. Trump? He's only popular because he pretends to be a birther.

The American budget crisis exploded in 2003 when Republicans determined to throw away the Clinton-era "costing" rule, namely, that everything in a budget had to be paid for. Clinton had turned the economy of the US around, after the failure of Reagan-Bush to control their deficits. "Reagan proved that deficits don't matter," Cheney announced in 2004 as the Republicans began the spiral into debt that we are now trying to reverse. Americans know this, and Democrats have nothing to fear on the budget battle. I trust that Americans will do the right thing and not return to power the party that demonstrated such absolute fiscal recklessness from 2000 to 2008.

[Jon S.]

Barton,

I think your memory is a bit faulty. First, presidents do not write budgets, Congress does. Bill Clinton opposed a balanced budget, and then when he finally agreed that this should be the goal he wanted to balance much later than congressional Republicans. The congressional Republicans of the 1990s deserve far more credit than Clinton for the balanced budgets at the end of that decade, although Clinton deserves credit for ultimately agreeing. It should be noted that these balanced budgets were relatively easy. First, the "holiday from history" that was the 1990s made us believe that we could cut defense spending, which is where the lions share of spending cuts came from. Second, because of the tech boom, the economy was growing strong and revenue was washing in. Balanced budgets were easy.

The economy also grew after Bush's first year in office and before the 2008 collapse, which is why deficits were actually declining in the middle of the decade.

Our fiscal situation is largely caused by entitlement spending, exacerbated under Bush by the passage of the Medicare prescription drug benefit, a bill that David Walker called the most irresponsible piece of legislation in 40 years. You can certainly blame Bush for that, but most Democrats were for it, too. And I wonder if Barton joins Republicans and moderate Democrats like Alice Rivlin in advocating reshaping of entitlements, especially Medicare, to reduce cost.

Finally, if Bush's deficits were awful, Barton must HATE Obama's. Obama's budget projects deficits over the next decade which exceed every year the worst deficit under Bush by at least $200 billion. This is while assuming strong economic growth. I agree, Bush was fiscally irresponsible. But because I think that I believe that Obama's performance on these issues, to borrow Clive Crook's word, has been "pitiful."

[William]

The Presidential election in 2012 is already largely out of Obama's hands, at this point. In the unlikely event that we have a booming economy and people have some reason to believe that Obama is a leader, rather than an empty suit, his re-election hopes rest solely on the GOP fielding an even less attractive candidate against him, or a credible enough third-party challenger to result in his winning with less than 45% of the popular vote.

[Stan Gibilisco]

Predictions:

Trump runs as a Republican but loses the primary.

The winner (I favor Huckabee, but who knows at this point?) asks Trump to be his running mate, in order to keep Trump from running as an independent.

Trump will play "second fiddle" to no one. He thinks he can win. He runs as an independent.

Obama sails into the Presidency.

Democrats demagogue the Ryan plan and its general philosophy. Baby boomers drink it right up. Republicans gain no seats in the House in 2012, and lose two seats in the Senate.

Gridlock continues, intensifies, and polarization approaches the threshold of violence.

[William]

Stan, not to sound like "Dr Doom", but if your scenario plays out, I suspect the threshold would be crossed within a week of the election...

Personally, I think Trump will be out of the running no later than mid-summer, he doesn't want to release a financial statement and won't launch a third party bid. Unfortunately, that doesn't mean someone else won't attempt one, thus allowing Obama to win re-election with under 45% of the popular vote...

[Jimi]

Ken,

"Obama has not yet suffered a fall into the 30% approval range, but he has precious little margin for error."

One Word...."Sampling"

[Jimi]

My Prediction....

Obama wins a second term reguardless of what the Republicans do....Reguardless of the Economy....Reguardless of Foreign Affairs.

Why Do I beleive that?

Simple....Any country weak enough to have let someone like Obama represent them, is weak enough to allow him to maintain power. Once the media gets through with the massive propoganda campaign that will be starting within the next 6 months, Obama will be a Shoe-In.

[William]

Jimi,

I wish I could say you're wrong, but I definitely see where you're coming from. Let's just say, I HOPE you're wrong. If you're right, then I fear the we may live to witness the end of this grand experiment we call the United States of America.

[larry kurtz]

How's this little circle jerk goin' in here?

Hey, the American Revolution is still happening; you're either on the bus or you're off the bus. Pick one.

[Jimi]

Poopy Brains,

"How's this little circle jerk goin' in here?"

Going Good! Now lube up or go hang out with your boyfriend's at HuffPost!

[Jimi]

William,

"Let's just say, I HOPE you're wrong."

Why? I disagree with your prespective. The best thing that could happend to this country is for Obama and the Democrats to get another term with a super majority. I know that sounds crazy, but you can't fix anything until the population understands how we got here. At some point you have to let the Democrats (i.e The Progressives and Marxists) have complete control long enough to expose themselves. Unitl that happends the population will never understand what the debate is really about. Americans have been spolied for so long now, the majority still does not understand what is at stake. You and I both know it would end in disaster, but it will anyway, so why not hurry it along, so that your kids and grandkids can still recover to enjoy an America that you and your parents enjoyed?

[Jimi]

William,

"I fear that we may live to witness the end of this grand experiment we call the United States of America."

I disagree with this too! There is no reason to lose faith in your countrymen. Just because the majority of Americans don't quite understand what they have, does not mean that when it comes down to the nitty-gritty that they will choose a life of less freedom and prosperity. There has been alot of manipulation and propoganda over the years and many people just could not keep up, or had a hard time fessing up to the reality of American Politics. My baseline point is, that there is no way to avoid the pain that is due upon us, but that doesn't mean as we begin to pay those dues, your fellow American's will choose to ditch the Constitution or the Economic System that compliments it, for a System that offers less freedom or prosperity.

If they do choose that....history will eventually repeat itself....and those who choose to not live under such circumstances will be the mirror images of the Patriots of our past.

[William]

Jimi,

If we stay on our current path, we may not need to wait for Obama to be re-elected before the Democrats (i.e The Progressives and Marxists) have complete control long enough to expose themselves. My biggest concern are the shear numbers of Americans that are still supporting them.

I think it increasingly possible that if we have Obama in office for a second term, we may still have States in the "Republic" of America but they may not include all 50 and some of the states will belong to different republics.

I'm not yet willing to speculate that it's the most likely course, because I don't believe it is. I'm not willing to rule it out though, and that's a particularly depressing thought.

Your baseline point is entirely correct, pain IS on its way, but are we so split that some will choose to our Constitution and some will choose another path? Is it even possible for the "House Divided" to separate itself peacefully? Can we come to our collective senses and unite to "pay those dues", or are too many citizens trapped in the magical thinking that "government will fix it" and we can afford anything we want, when we want without concern for the consequences?

[Dave]

For a quick review of why Obama will win in 2012 read this...

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/2011-04-19-gop-candidates-2012-hurdles.htm?csp=34news

[William]

And for a quick synopsis of why Obama may easily lose here...

$6 Gas? Could Happen if Dollar Keeps Getting Weaker
http://www.cnbc.com/id/42683030

"Rest assured, if the economy doesn't improve -- or gets worse -- the GOP will be well-positioned to oust Obama in 2012, provided the party doesn't nominate a fringe candidate."
http://www.salon.com/news/politics/barack_obama/index.html?story=/politics/war_room/2011/04/19/obama_poll_2012