The Jobs Report & Battle Royale

A few weeks ago I finally watched Battle Royale, one of the few pieces of classic jhorror cinema that I hadn't seen yet. The plot is very Japanese. As the movie opens you are told that the Japanese economy is in crisis and that school kids are in rebellion against the adults. The Japanese state responds by passing the BR Act. A ninth grade class is chosen at random and transported to an island. Once there, each is given a sack contain weapons. They are told that at the end of three days one of them will be allowed to leave the island alive, but only if all the others are dead. If more than one is alive after three days, all of them will be killed. A sadistic former teacher runs the show, broadcasting an hourly report of deaths.

The action turns on how fast or whether each student accepts the rules of the game. Some begin killing immediately. Others form coalitions which steadily decay into betrayal and murder. The protagonists, you guessed it, are a couple who swear not to betray one another.

One thing that stuck with me was the description of the crisis that is responsible for this horrific scenario. Unemployment, we are told, reaches fifteen percent. That's it. And what does the youth rebellion consist in? What about the violence against adults? Well, a little. But mostly we are told that the children stop coming to school. In this film, playing hooky draws a death sentence.

The Japanese, apparently, have a very disturbing view of their youth and of their own attitude toward the young. They also have a ridiculous notion of what constitutes a real crisis. But therein is a tale.

This morning I read in the Aberdeen American News that the jobs report about to be issued would be "rosy". From McClatchy:

On Friday morning, when the Labor Department reports November employment numbers, they're likely to show strong hiring for the second straight month.

Oops. In fact the jobs report was terrible. From the New York Times:

The United States added a total of just 39,000 jobs last month, down from an upwardly revised gain of 172,000 in October, the Labor Department reported on Friday. With local governments shedding jobs, the additions in the private sector were too small to reduce the ranks of the unemployed or even to keep pace with people entering the work force.

The unemployment rate, which is based on a separate survey of households, rose to 9.8 percent in November. It was the highest jobless rate since April and up from 9.6 percent in October.

Something is wrong. We are used to an economy that cycles up and down. Recessions are followed by recovery, and vice versa. A few years when you can't find a job are followed by years when you get to choose the best offer. Just now, the recovery seems to be stalled.

It's a little early yet, I think, to send a bunch of middle school boys and girls to an island with sacks of grenades. But Battle Royale has something to teach us. A 9.8% unemployment rate means that 90% of Americans who want a job have one. My grandfather feared losing his farm and having to stand in a soup line to avoid starvation. Most folks I know today fear not getting a raise next year or, shudder, having to take a pay cut.

Fear is relative, but a little perspective might be in order. The economic dismay is general among developed nations. The cause is not a mystery. Governments have spent too much. Too much wealth has been diverted from the investment in the productive economy to maintain high levels of consumption. One way or another, that will be adjusted.

From Athens in Greece to Athens in Georgia, we all fear that something will be taken away. Any attempt to balance the books brings howls of pain from all of those who enjoyed the imbalance. If we don't balance the books sooner, we are going to face much worse things later. If you don't believe me, watch Battle Royale.

Comments

[Stan Gibilisco]

In my opinion, we all share the responsibility for the current conundrum. We like to blame "the government" for our woes, but they're only behaving in the same way so many of us have.

We don't want higher Social Security taxes, but we refuse to budge on raising the eligibility age. We don't want to pay higher medical insurance premiums, but we want more benefits. Hello! The numbers don't work that way, no matter whether God or the devil rolls them.

I hope that the new Congress will rein in government spending, but I also hope that we, the people, can find the will to make the necessary sacrifices. If we keep wanting to have our cow and eat the steak too, we'll end up with neither.

[Donald Pay]

KB says, "Too much wealth has been diverted from the investment in the productive economy to maintain high levels of consumption." People won't invest in an economy if there isn't demand. The middle class, the drivers of demand, have been hollowed out through thirty years of Republican economics. The wealth has been diverted from the productive economy to the wealthy. The best thing we could do is go back to the tax policies of the 1950s.

[George Mason]

The middle class has grown because of Republican economic programs. The single largest movement of population from "low" to "middle" class occurred in the 1980's because people across all income spectrum were allowed to keep their own money and make their own decisions as to how it should be used. This is called freedom. As a result their was increased investment in private business that increased employment. Increasing employment put demand on labor which meant increased wages. Higher wages led to greater investment. This meant more incentive to risk new ventures. Where the country ran into problems was when GHW Bush increased taxes in 1990 (including the disastrous "Luxury Tax") which turned an economic adjustment into a recession. This was followed by Clintons tax increase in 1993 which shot a nascent recovery in the head. This was not turned around until the "Contract with America" reduced taxes on investments and profits and provided incentives to invest again.
If we are not to go the way of Ireland spending has to be brought under control and regulations must have an axe taken to them.
The 1950's (Republican administration) were a time of recovery from the Depression and the war. The economy was making up for pent up demand. It was followed by the 60's and 70's, at time of chronic recession and high inflation brought about by the "Great Society" programs (more excessive spending). This was followed by Nixon's liberal regulatory agenda followed by Carters high tax agenda. Going back to the 1950-1970's will only provide incentive for high income earners to move their income and investments off shore. This nation is far more prosperous from top to bottom when people are allowed to pursue their own goals with their own means.

[Donald Pay]

People today are prevented from pursuing their own goals with their own means because the wealthy fiancially bloodsuckers have expropriated all the wealth. That's what Republican economics has brought---stagnation.

[William]

If people today are prevented from pursuing their own goals with their own means it's because we have a government that's over-promised, under-delivered, over-spent and over-regulated.

We're not the "last man standing" after a world war and a return to the tax policies of the 1950s now would most likely eliminate what's left of the middle class.

[Donald Pay]

I'm not sure a movie is the best place to get your information on the social ramifications of unemployment. Why not try reality. There are places where 15% unemployment would be considered excellent. There are massive social problems in inner cities where unemployment can be as high as 25% or more. We don't put minority youth on an island. We put them in jail. You may be used to an economy that cycles, but that's not the experience of many places in America. There seems to be a big disconnect between the reality that has been experienced by middle class whites and minorities. What you view as interesting cinema is, with some differences, the reality of many people in America. And now it's coming to middle class white America. You can't handle the truth, so you cling to the Republican myths.

[George Mason]

The single largest shift of black families moving from poverty to the middle class occurred during the 1980's. Which proved that a "Rising Tide Lifts All Boats." Liberal policies have consistently had negative impacts on any possibilities for poor people improving their lot. The Great Society established the permanent underclass, perpetually dependent upon the government. Democrats demand constant increases in the minimum wage to mollify their union patrons. Virtually every study of the issue demonstrates that this only serves to deny "first" jobs to young people in general and minority youths in particular. This doesn't fit the "Marxist reality" but it is the actual reality.

[Donald Pay]

There's a real problem above with misinformation about the economic policies in the 1980s. Anyone who lived through those dark times would never want to reinstitute any of those policies. During the 1980s there was a boom on the coasts, and middle class professionals on the coasts did well. You will, of course, remember that the boom caused by the deregulation of the S&Ls was built on corruption, and was paid for by the taxpayers. This also was the beginning of the hollowing out of good union manufacturing jobs, so you had utter devastation of the Rust Belt combined with a boom in importing of cheap goods from overseas. There was a massive depression in the ag sector, which means most the the rural Midwest experienced serious economic and population decline. The supposed "shift" in black families is a statistical artifact of percentages, having to do with the fact that more white families moved into poverty.

[larry kurtz]

Ken: ip wonders whether your parable is more about good mental health than a half-empty, half-full dialogue. Here's a little more ammo for your premise:

http://cyber.eserver.org/unabom.txt

[Jim Anderson]

How do they count people that make a living committing federal crimes and get away with it. Use your kid's identity to get credit cards and not worry about getting arrested or paying a bill. It happens all the time and Lt. Governor's letter on the subject posted at southdakotagov weblog.