Demographics and Destiny

Here's a little news that will cheer some and others not so much.

The U.S. Census Bureau today announced its long-awaited final population and reapportionment numbers. The official population of the U.S. as of April 1, 2010 was 308,745,538, up from 281,421,906 in 2000. The Northeast grew 3.2 percent, the Midwest grew 3.9 percent, the South grew 14.3 percent and the West grew by 13.8 percent. Overall, it was the slowest growth in the country since the 1930s.

The apportionment winners were: Texas (4 seats), Florida (2 seats), Arizona (1 seat), Georgia (1 seat), Nevada (1 seat), South Carolina (1 seat), Utah (1 seat), Washington (1 seat). The losers were: New York (2 seats), Ohio (2 seats), Illinois (1 seat), Iowa (1 seat), Louisiana (1 seat), Massachusetts (1 seat), Michigan (1 seat), Missouri (1 seat), New Jersey (1 seat), Pennsylvania (1 seat).

Overall, this represents a continued shift in the Electoral College from blue-leaning states to red-leaning states. If the 2008 election had been held under these census numbers, President Obama's 365-173 victory over John McCain would have become a 359-179 win. For 2004, the numbers are starker still: Bush's 286-251 victory would become a 292-246 win, meaning that even if Kerry had won Ohio, he still would have lost (in 2004, flipping Ohio would have been sufficient to give Kerry the win).

Merry Christmas to all!

Comments

[Terry]

Gee, I wonder how many people are out there who were too paranoid to answer the questions, therefore not getting counted?

[KB]

Terry: the census has never been able to count people who successfully hide.

[Bill Fleming]

KB, don't count your chickens before they hatch, my friend. For the most part, population growth in those states likely coincides with an increase in the hispanic demographic of same. That might mean more Dems making the red states bluer. Time will tell.

[KB]

Bill: I ain't countin' nothin. I do seem to remember a lot of my readers solemnly pronouncing the death of the Republican Party oh, about two years ago. Lots of things could happen that would render any projections useless.

I would make a few observations. Texas is gaining four seats. California is gaining none. Even if all the growth in Texas is due to Hispanic immigration, that will not make it much easier for a Democratic Candidate to carry Texas in the next presidential election.

Also, people moving to a new place are more likely to adopt the perspective of their new neighbors than to resolutely hang on to their old ways. Hispanics assimilate much faster than most people realize. This is obscured by the high rate at which the supply of new immigrants is replenished.

Your point is well taken, but if I were a Democrat gaming the next couple of Presidential elections, I would be very concerned.