The Republic makes up its Mind

All year long I have heard people say, and have seen people write, that the polls and the electorate have been unusually volatile. All year long I have thought otherwise. The patterns that emerged in the gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey were manifest in the primary elections through the summer: Republicans turned out to vote in larger numbers than Democrats and independents shifted Republican by a dramatic margin.

I see no evidence that isn't about to happen in this year's election. Consider the recent spirit lifting poll (for Democratic spirits) in Pennsylvania. Republican Toomey has been leading Democrat Sestak for some time. Three recent polls had Toomey ahead by margins between seven and ten points. Then along comes the PPP poll to show Sestak ahead by one point. Is Sestak coming back again as he did against Democrat turned Republican turned Democrat Arlen Specter? The Democratically affiliated poll assumes that Democrats will turn out in larger numbers relative to Republicans than they did in 2006 and 2008, two big Democratic years. There is no earthly reason to expect that that will be true. PPP looks to be trying to cook the books for Sestak, perhaps to generate some enthusiasm among Democratic voters. Good luck with that.

Then there is the news from Nevada, where early voting has begun. From the Politico:

Early-voting numbers out of Nevada's two biggest counties could spell trouble for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid in his tough contest against Republican Sharron Angle.

In Reno's Washoe County and Las Vegas's Clark County, Republican turnout was disproportionately high over the first three voting days, according to local election officials. The two counties together make up 86 percent of the state's voter population.

Some 47 percent of early voters in the bellwether Washoe County so far have been Republicans, while 40 percent have been Democrats, according to the Washoe County Registrar… Voter registration in the county is evenly split, 39 percent to 39 percent. The disproportionate turnout is a concrete indication of the Republican enthusiasm that is expected to portend a nationwide GOP wave.

That is indeed bad news for Senate Majority Leader Reid and bad news for Democrats across the board.

President Obama has a theory about all of this. He thinks the voters are angry because they're scared, and they're scared because of the difficult economy. Again from the Politico:

President Barack Obama said Americans' "fear and frustration" is to blame for an intense midterm election cycle that threatens to derail the Democratic agenda.

"Part of the reason that our politics seems so tough right now and facts and science and argument does not seem to be winning the day all the time is because we're hardwired not to always think clearly when we're scared," Obama said Saturday evening in remarks at a small Democratic fundraiser Saturday evening. "And the country's scared."

President Obama thinks the voters (that's us) are behaving irrationally. If only we were guided by "facts and science and argument," and were thinking clearly, we'd all be voting the way he would have us vote. He is not unique in this thought. Newsman Peter Jennings famously said after the 1994 election that Americans had a temper tantrum. Only people who have gone nuts vote Republican.

Maybe. But when the masses behave irrationally, under the influence of popular passion, their behavior is usually rather jumpy, isn't it? See Shakespeare's Julius Caesar. You can turn 'em with a good Mark Anthony speech.

The President has been trying to pull a Mark Anthony since last summer, but his Shakespearean oratory just seems to bounce off the electorate. Could it be that the voters aren't out of control and off their nut at all? Might it be that the people have just made up their collective mind? Might it be that they made up their minds as early as last year, when Congress and the President were hammering the rough, angular edges of their health care bill through the round opening of legislative procedure?

This is what a Republican form of government looks like. Welcome to the majors, Mr. Obama.

Comments

[duggersd]

That snob in the White House believes the electorate is scared. The electorate is not scared. It is angry. Anger should not be confused with being "mad". The electorate has been lied to by the President, members of Congress, the Speaker of the House and the Majority leader. The electorate has been talked down to by the same people.
Republicans should keep in mind the electorate is angry. The electorate is listening to the Republicans are saying they get it. Time will tell. However if the Republicans refuse to do put forth bills to turn this country around, including that monstrosity of a job killer the health care law, they will find that anger turned towards them.
There seems to be a certain group of people in both parties who think they know what is best for the rest of us. Either they will serve the electorate or the electorate will put people in who will.

[Stan Gibilisco]

A couple of days ago, I took a little survey courtesy of Cory's "Madville Times" blog and found that my views correlate 53% with those of Kristi Noem and 74% with those of Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin.

The axioms of rationality would have me vote for the Democrat here. But I went in for early voting yesterday and cast my lot for Noem.

Mr. Obama is right: Some of us are behaving irrationally, if we take the term at its literal meaning. However, I do not consider myself mad in the sense of insane (or even, really, in the sense of angry). I simply want to do everything in my power to prevent what I see as a march toward socialism.

I do not want to live in a socialist country. If I did, I would move to France -- and take my flameproof jacket with me.

Thus my cold, calculating, irrational, Vulcan mind, knowing its limitations, saw fit to allow the heart to have its way. Only time will tell where the regret, if any, should go ...

[KB]

Dugger: right now most conservatives I know are like kids when Christmas approaches. When they go to look at the RCP poll averages, it's like they are shaking the box to guess what is in it. I expect a pretty good time under the tree. I am scrupulously avoiding any thought of what comes after the Holiday.

Stan: great comment! Most voters react to their particular representative when they vote, and the election averages the reactions. Some voters think about the larger outcomes, and vote against a candidate because they are voting against their party in Congress. A vote for Noem or for Herseth Sandlin is a vote for Boehner or Pelosi. There is nothing crazy about that.