The Election Shaman Speaks

My election Shaman finally came out of his ecofriendly hut this afternoon. He still smells a bit of tobacco and tequila, but he was wearing a jumpsuit with the Texas Rangers logo on it and was trimming his moustache with a very precise looking pair of small shears. You may have guessed that the photo that adorns all the posts mentioning him is not really a photo of ES. He doesn't want my readers to know what he really looks like lest it interfere with his day jobs as high school guidance counselor and bartender in Scranton. I will say that the photo isn't all that far off. The hair and the eyes are right.

THE HOUSE

The Shaman predicts that the Republicans will capture 60 seats, more or less. "Not all of the spirits hiding in trees, rocks, springs, or Union Halls, can be trusted," says he. He thinks that the Republican gains will be at least even with the gains in 1994. But if you draw the diagram of one Election Spirit, called Pew, in chalk on the sidewalk, that is what it is saying to ES.

Okay, what about North and South Dakota? He said that the Republicans would take both. Well, that's what I have been thinking. So what about Oberstar, Dingell, and Frank? "Hush," he said. "Those are powerful wizards and they can exact revenge! But they have angered the Great Spirit so no one can be certain." The Great Spirit? Yes, he said, the spirit that flows into and out of Wal Marts.

THE SENATE

My Election Shaman put down his shears and gazed at the horizon. "The Republicans," he said, "will take Missouri, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin. They will take Nevada, Kentucky, and Illinois. They will take Colorado, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia." Okay, I said, that's fifty seats. "They will take California," he said, in the kind of deep resonant howl you would expect from an Old Testament prophet. Wow, I said, that's fifty-one. What about Washington? "Even money," he said, and went back to trimming. Okay, said I, you're predicting that the Republicans will take the Senate. Is that what the spirits are really telling you, or are you just going beyond the conventional wisdom so you will look smart and well-connected spiritually if you happen to be right? "The Gods help those," he said, "who help themselves."

MY TAKE

I think the Shaman is right about the House. I will be mildly surprised if he is right about the Senate, but only mildly. The real magic in elections is to gin up your party, depress the opposite party, and magnetically attract a majority of independents. All the signs suggest that the Republicans have powerful magic this year.

Comments

[Matt]

Professor Blanchard:

The Shaman has seen in all and he is good. Be wise and follow his lead. He speaks the truth and on November 2nd the rest of us shall see what he sees.

[duggersd]

How about predicting against the spread? I am predicting Noem wins by 5% or more. I did that before the last Rasmussen Reports survey, btw. Any other guesses?

[William]

My two cents, Kristi by 6% or more.

[KB]

The Shaman says four percent for Noem. I have been after him about West Virginia and California, but he just smiles and snorts some snuff. At least I think its snuff.