The SD U.S. House race remains the most interesting election in South Dakota, both here and nationally. My colleague Professor Schaff has done a great job of putting some of the numbers in perspective. I can't resist making some final comments. This is my last post on this race. No foolin'.
As weather patterns become visible to meteorologists when they create models based on pressure systems and fronts, so voting patterns become visible to political scientists when they build models consisting of voting blocs and population dynamics.
In the U.S., the most important voting blocs are Republicans, Democrats, and Independents. The outcome of an election is determined by three factors: 1) the relative size of each voting bloc; 2) the direction each bloc is moving; and 3) how much of each bloc turns out.
While candidates try very hard to influence all three of these factors, they really have only a marginal influence. A good candidate running a good campaign can change the final outcome only if the forces are in virtual balance. The only thing that is likely to shift the forces described above in a dramatic way is a scandal serious enough to undermine one of the candidates.
In the South Dakota House race, the first factor is easy to gage. According to the Secretary of State's website, voter registration numbers are:
Republican 237, 809
Democrat 194,204
Independent 85,296
That obviously gives the Republican a significant advantage but it also means that independent voters will decide the election. If the Republican advantage over Democrats holds in the election and if independents split or break Republican, then the Republican will win. The Democrat can win if independents break strongly enough in her direction.
Of course, some registered Republicans will vote for the Democrat and vice versa. That is the second factor. Professor Schaff's post parses the numbers. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin is a familiar incumbent and she has clearly done a good job of attracting Republican votes in the past. According to the Keloland poll (Mason-Dixon) HS is doing a bit better at attracting Republican votes than Noem at attracting Democrats.
It seems likely that the third factor will be most important in determining the outcome here as it has been doing elsewhere. Polls showing Herseth Sandlin leading all assume that Democratic turnout will be at least as robust this year as in the last two years. Indeed almost all the difference in the various polls results from differences in estimating this factor.
All year long Republicans have enjoyed two major advantages in state after state. Republican voters are turning out in large numbers and independent voters are swinging robustly toward the GOP. This is measured not only in opinion polls but in actual elections and primary elections. More people voted in Republican primaries this year than in Democratic primaries, something that is unprecedented.
It is possible, to be sure, that South Dakota will buck that trend. Democrats may turn out in numbers more like those in 2008. Republicans and independents may not show the pronounced preference for GOP candidates that the polls indicate nationally.
The only real numbers we have to go on suggest something else. Here are the numbers of new registered voters in each voting bloc since Oct. 1st.
Republican 1,903
Independent 1,497
Democrat 900
These numbers measure two things, both of which are more real than poll samples. One is people bothering to register to vote. The other is people bothering to encourage them to register. A more than two to one advantage for Republicans over Democrats suggests that the national GOP wave is building here as it is elsewhere. Among recent registered voters, the Democrats have become a third party.
This post on the House race and my last are nerd's candy. I don't know what is going to happen on Tuesday, and neither do you. I am not a gambling man but, if I were, I'd bet on a Noem victory. Three days from now we will know whether I would have collected.
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