Noem Likely

The South Dakota U.S. House race has attracted national attention. If Herseth Sandlin survives her campaign will serve as a model for relatively conservative Democrats in the vast middle of the country. If she does not, it will serve as a model for conservative challengers and a challenge to the very idea of the Blue Dog coalition.

The race looks to me the same as it has looked all year long: our incumbent Representative is in trouble. One indication of this is an ad run on Herseth Sandlin's behalf by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

This ad has been subject to criticism from both sides of the aisle in South Dakota. It is certainly over the top, but it was also the most entertaining ad of the season. With the John Carpenter horror sound track and the "Kristi is on her way to kill your children" theme, what's not to like?

What I find interesting is the fact that it runs at all. The SHS campaign has already produced one ad on the issue, and it was a good one. This is a serious enough issue and you can hardly blame any campaign for exploiting something like this. Ticket gate is the one issue that gave the SHS campaign some traction.

The trouble is, running a second ad on the topic seems ill-advised. It dilutes the seriousness of the original point and it looks like a transparent case of milking the one good cow. To run an ad so over the top looks like a sign of desperation.

The South Dakota House race, like the electorate national (as I have argued recently), has been remarkably stable. SHS has been stuck below fifty percent all year. Except for the brief turbulence cased by the eruption of Ticketgate, Kristi Noem has been consistently ahead since she won the nomination.

Rasmussen confirms the trend.

The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters shows Noem, a state legislator, picking up 49% of the vote, while Herseth-Sandlin draws support from 44%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are still undecided.

Assuming that's right, Noem has only to pick up two percent from the "prefer another" and undecided voters. Herseth Sandlin has to win all seven percent. Undecided voters tend to break for challengers; but even if they don't, they are unlikely all to break for SHS.

Nate Silver lately of the New York Times, who has been friendlier to Democrats than most poll analysts, gives Noem a 78% chance of taking the seat.

All the indications at our disposal point toward a victory for Kristi Noem.

Comments

[Jason]

The ads about Noem’s speeding showing children in the background shows how desperate they are getting. Are they implying that Noem’s speeding will result in children being ran over and killed? Shades of Bill Janklow. But I digress. Herseth claims to have helped a wounded soldier receive better care. It’s not in her job description or is it? Her ‘job’ is making laws and seeing them passed as her staff states in letters addressed to Herseth Sandlin. Stephanie picks and chooses who she will help with difficulties with federal agencies. Certainly the Justice Department ignoring identity theft going on for 5 years using the child’s identity qualifies. But apparently she does not want to upset any one. Using fake social security numbers for 12 years in bank fraud, check kiting, no account checks, credit card fraud and bank fraud is not the Justice Department’s concern? You know why? Because State officials like Daugaard are covering up corrupt Judges that actually run South Dakota. Not the governor’s office for sure. Federal laws were sent to Stephanie and her staff with the question why is it allowed that federal laws can be broken, blatantly, because Chief Justice David Gilbertson has an ax to grind? The State Bar and SD Judicial Qualifications Commission do nothing about corrupt State Judges.
Stephanie Herseth Sandlin is a poor person to represent the average South Dakotan. When she gets voted out watch her move to Texas or maybe get a job is State Government.
http://goo.gl/YcT7
On a different note would you want to be served at a bar by a known identity thief who could memorize your check information or credit card/debit card information?

[larry kurtz]

Thank you for posting the DCCC ad again, Doc. Great piece, huh?

Jason, your plea for anarchy makes for some great peepshow material. No matter, three Hail Marys ought to cover it.

Hey! Democracy is a messy deal. Hiring the best lawyer for the job usually wins the case.

[KB]

You're welcome, Larry. The ad is in fact a great piece, if its purpose was to drive the last nails into the coffin of the SHS campaign. It is so over the top as to look mean and desperate at the same time.

[larry kurtz]

Mr. Meidinger. Care to comment on Mrs. Noem's chances? Maybe you could take a moment and speculate on your own role as a potential Chief of Staff.