Strange New Respect for Rasmussen Poll

Politics, as they say, makes for strange bedfellows. Suddenly my friends on Democratic side of the local blogosphere are crawling under the sheets next to Scott Rasmussen. Badlands Blue is chortling. Here's Cory Heidelberger:

We in the blogosphere have had some discussion about the accuracy of Republican-run Rasmussen polling. But they're the only folks polling the South Dakota Congressional race consistently, so perhaps we can at least learn something by comparing their numbers.

Their latest poll shows incumbent Congresswoman Stephanie Herseth Sandlin leading GOP challenger Kristi Noem 47% to 45%. That reverses Noem's easy leads throughout the summer, while everyone was at the lake with Dennis.

Let me unpack that for you. As long as Rasmussen was showing Noem ahead, Rasmussen's robo-poll was "shoddy", and not much better than Cory's blog polls. Now that the Rasmussen poll shows a Herseth-Sandlin lead, "perhaps we can learn something" from it.

I demonstrated in several posts that Rasmussen had a very good record, and I am not inclined to change my mind now. Cory attributes SHS's improvement in the R poll to Noem's debate performance, Noem's driving record, and Al Franken's visit. I think it very unlikely that the first or the third had any effect. The second very likely did drag down Noem's numbers, and if she loses, that will be the reason.

The Rasmussen Poll clearly indicates that the game has changed. Until now, it was hard to see how Representative Herseth-Sandlin could survive. Now it looks like a competitive race. It still looks like quite a challenge for the incumbent. She has yet to break 50 percent against any Republican candidate. That is usually a bad sign for a candidate who has won what, four elections? South Dakota voters know her pretty well, and they are not enthusiastic.

If the Republican wave that has been building all year across the nation subsides, or for some reason bypasses the Rushmore State, and if the Noem brand has indeed been permanently damaged, then there is a chance that Representative Herseth-Sandlin will be back in Congress next January. She will get to vote for House Minority Leader.

If SD Republicans enjoy the same enthusiasm advantage they have enjoyed elsewhere this year and if independent voters in South Dakota break the way they have been breaking in pretty much every poll and actual election this year, then Kristi Noem will get to vote for John Boehner for Speaker of the House.

Comments

[caheidelberger]

I'm not under the sheets -- I'm just pointing out the sweet nothings being whispered by the Republicans' bedfellow and wondering if my fellow Republicans will continue their warm embrace of that pollster. In July, Noem touted two Rasmussen polls as a trend. I eagerly await her assessment of the current "trend".

http://www.kristiforcongress.com/news/post/talking-points-memo-poll-shows-noem-up-nine-percent/

[KB]

What you are doing Cory is taking a poll seriously when and only when it tells you what you want to hear. If you find any Republicans flip flopping on Rasmussen, you should publicize it. Its unlikely,as Rasmussen's numbers elsewhere are very good news for the GOP.

[Lynn]

I'm going to remind voters of what they need to consider this election. Do you like where Obama, Reid, and PELOSI have taken this nation in the past two years? Do you like their meddling in health care? in energy via cap and trade (tax)? in the reckless spending on the above plus stimulus that is not working? Do you like the idea that taxes are necessarily going to be raised to pay for the agenda they have passed so far and the proposals they still want? Do you like the way the health care was passed (bribery, coercion, back room deals, shutting out totally the Reps? Do you like the fact that Stephanie refused (REFUSED) to meet in open meetings last year to hear our concerns about the health care bill? These are the issues. These are what we should be discussing. These are what matters in this election.

If you like the way the nation is going, vote for Stephanie as she supports the Pelosi agenda for the most part. She voted for her for speaker, and as speaker Pelosi sets the agenda, so therefore Stephanie does agree with Pelosi's agenda.

However, if you do not like the way this nation is heading, vote for KRISTI. If you have had it with expanded gov't programs and control, expanded bureacracy, gov't control of health care and health insurance, cap and trade, card check, reckless spending and higher taxes, then vote for KRISTI.

Kristi represents true hope and change, not the kind we got with Obama, but the kind that will put the brakes on expansion of gov't, reckless spending, higher taxes, cap and trade, card check, increased fed regulations, and the like.