Except for the other one. Donkey-minded pundits frequently point out of late that all the bad news for Democrats hasn't translated into any affection for Republicans. This seems right and it marks one difference between now and 1994. It is getting very difficult to see how it matters.
CNN has released a new poll that confirms the Republican advantage on the generic question. The poll has Republicans ahead by seven points. Oddly, there is no link to the poll stats, so I don't know if this is likely or registered voters. If you ignore the Newsweek poll showing a tie, then the Republican's spread is between 6 and 12 points.
The CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll found that, sure enough,
the two parties are equally unpopular. Forty-nine percent of all Americans have an unfavorable view of the Democrats, with the same percentage feeling the same way about the Republicans. Just over one in five questioned dislike both parties.
Here is the bombshell:
Back in April, Americans who dislike both parties appeared to mildly favor the GOP on the generic ballot, by a 43-to-39 percent margin, with a large number saying at the time that they would pick a minor-party candidate or stay at home.
"Now, a lot of those voters appear to be bolting to the GOP," Holland said. "Republicans now have a whopping 38-point advantage on the generic ballot among voters who dislike both parties."
Republicans also have a large and growing advantage among independents. Sixty-two percent of independents questioned say they would vote for the generic Republican in their district, with three in 10 saying they'd cast a ballot for the generic Democrat. That 32-point margin for the Republicans among independents is up from an 8-point advantage last month.
Looking at those numbers, I get the same feeling I got when I first gazed over the rim of the Grand Canyon: the air gets tight in my chest. A thirty-two point advantage for the GOP among independents. On a scale of one to ten, that's, well, thirty-two.
However, among people who think both parties are worth a pitcher of warm spit, it's that 38 point advantage that is most revealing. A political party can afford to be unpopular if the only competition is 38% less popular.
Lest you think this is mere cheerleading, I can see lots of reasons for Republicans to be very nervous. One is that they might get cocky and blow it. Republicans are surely capable of that, when they have time. Do they have time enough? Maybe not.
Another thing is that this sentiment is not, I expect, evenly distributed. New York Democrats seem to be doing just fine. Still, when the GOP national advantage is this strong, it is going to affect races in virtually every district in the country.
Third, the Democrats can at least hope to win the spin. At this point, if they hold the Senate and don't lose the House by more than 10 seats, they can declare victory.
Finally, the Republican advantage seems to consist solely of one thing: they aren't Democrats. I don't think they have any idea what to do if they win both Houses of Congress.
The old Chinese curse may be descending on both parties: may you live in interesting times. The times they are certainly interesting.
I believe your second-to-last paragraph says it all. Republicans are not Democrats. In 1994 people were actually voting for something. In 2010 people are voting against someone. Republicans forgot who brung 'em to the dance. By the early part of the 2000's I could not really tell the difference between the two parties. Spending, scandals, and a general lack of responsibility led them to where they were in 2008. I believe the electorate is looking for a more conservative way of running government. It figured it could not get much worse than it was with Democrats in charge. Eyes are being opened and that is what is leading the Independents to the Republican party. If and when the Republicans gain their majorities and do nothing with it, they will be gone.
Posted by: duggersd | Tuesday, September 07, 2010 at 07:01 AM