It’s all about Obama

There is a saying among political junkies that all politics is local. That is the sort of conventional wisdom that is always true, until it isn't. This year it is abundantly clear that politics isn't local anywhere, even where it is.

Local conditions in Delaware have very likely cost the Republicans a Senate seat. But those local conditions would be otherwise were it not for the national phenomenon of the Tea Party movement. If this were not a very unusual year, Mike Castle would be the Republican nominee.

Likewise, we can look at West Virginia, Mountain Momma. Governor Joe Manchin figured he was engineering himself a U.S. Senate seat when he arranged for a special election this year to replace Robert Byrd. He had every reason to think so. He is a very popular figure in that uneven slice of real estate. Yet he is now a few points behind John Raese in two recent polls. It's not something in the water flowing out of those pock marked hills. It's the wave rolling beneath these spacious skies.

Then there is Connecticut. Democrat Richard Blumenthal ought to have a lock on the Senate race. He has a 51/41 percent approval in a recent poll. By contrast his opponent Linda McMahon (a World Federation of Wrestling Executive) has a 43/42 percent unfavorable rating. Yet McMahon has pulled into a statistical tie (three points behind). That means that the Democrats will have to funnel more money to Connecticut, instead of funneling Connecticut money elsewhere. It also means, more importantly, that Republicans might actually bag that Senate seat.

In Washington State Democrat Patty Murray's lead over Dino Rossi has evaporated. Russ Feingold in Wisconsin finally dared to appear on stage with President Obama. He might as well. When you are seven points or more behind in three polls, you are liberated to try anything.

None of these Democrats would be in trouble if all politics were local. In fact, this year is an unambiguous referendum on the last two years of Democratic rule. The people look to be about to vote with their fingers. If the Republicans take the House and take or come close to taking the Senate, that is a decisive rejection of Obama, Reid, and Pelosi.

The situation has been clear since January. Marion Berry, who occupies the Arkansas House district where yours truly was born, decided not to run for reelection when he realized that Obama just didn't get it. He and other Democrats tried to get Obama to recognize that they might be facing another disaster, like 1994 when the Republicans captured control of both houses of Congress. To no avail.

"They just don't seem to give it any credibility at all," Berry said. "They just kept telling us how good it was going to be. The president himself, when that was brought up in one group, said, 'Well, the big difference here and in '94 was you've got me.' We're going to see how much difference that makes now."

Well, yeah, now the Democrats have him. In Arkansas District 1, which Berry gave up, Republican Rick Crawford is running sixteen points ahead. For the first time in living memory, Arkansas's House delegation will be dominated by Republicans. Damned if Obama wasn't right. He has made a difference.

Comments

[Donald Pay]

Well, no, politics this year isn't local, but it doesn't have much to do with President Obama. It has to do with the corporate special interests, who manufactured the astroturf Tea Party Movement to give their greed a little grassroots patina. Add to that a Supreme Court decision that gave predominance to corporations while taking away rights from humans. Add in the collapse of any pretense at governance in the Republican Party in order to gain political advantage.

Normally these astroturf efforts fool the less sophisticated voter, and gin up the misdirected anger of the goofy right, and that's what they've done this year. But let's not pretend it's Obama.

[duggersd]

Donald, it has everything to do with Obama. People are not turning to the Republicans because they like them so much. They are turning to the Republicans because they are not Democrats, much like it was in 2006 & 2008. It has nothing to do with corporate interests. As a matter of fact, who is more in like with corporate interests than Obama himself who has nationalized 2/3 of the American auto industry? And who is in bed with the big insurance companies, forcing the smaller health insurance companies out of the business? We have seen what the policies of President Obama are and we have seen the rubber stamp of the Democrat controlled Congress that has given Obama so many victories. People are seeing it and are scared. Your guy Russ Feingold had to be shamed into going to a rally at the last minute that Obama was at. Don't tell me Feingold does not think Obama is toxic.
The TEA party is not a bunch of astroturf people. It is real Americans who are tired of seeing their country being led down a path it may never recover from. Right now, the Republicans are their best hope. However if the Republicans do not do what the TEA party is getting them elected to do, they will be on their way out. Then you can be happy again.

[Donald Pay]

duggersd: Feigold has called your theory "a lie."

Feingold said he would at the rally if the Senate schedule permitted it. The Seante had scheduled votes that made it impossible for Feingold to fly back to Wisconsin in time to attend the rally. It turned out the Senate votes came earlier than scheduled, so he was able to make the flight back. Unlike a lot of Republican politicians, Feingold does not cut votes to attend lobbyist functions, corporate golf outings or political rallies. He believes the duty of a Senator is to represent the people of his state, rather than attend to special interests or attend rallies. Feingold has missed only one vote in his eighteen year career, and still visits every county in the state every year.

At any rate he attended the rally and gave a good, but short speech.

The Tea Party is a corporate-funded entity. It has some grassroots, but the leaders are all paid by Washington-based corporate lobbying interests. The grassroots people are being badly misled by the corporatists.

[duggersd]

Believe what you will. Enjoy the Kool-Aid.

[Bill Fleming]

Pay is right, duggerSD. You're the one drinking the TeaParty® KoolAid®, I fear.
We are rapidly (and perhaps inexorably) becoming a Corporatocracy.

Better wake up and smell the Starbucks®, teach.

[KB]

Guys! We are all friends here. Why can't we all get along? I am afraid, Donald, that Dugger has the better argument. Democrats all over the map have been running away from Obama. It isn't the "corporatocracy" that is the problem. Blaming that is denial. Obama and the Democrats did what they did. The people are about to pass judgment. Welcome to Democracy.

[Bill Fleming]

KB, don't you mean ThePeople,Inc®? ;^)

[George Mason]

Gentlemen; The only Special Interests influencing and effecting the political climate this fall are the political campaigns of a significant number of democrats who are running away from Obama as fast as they can (has any one heard SHS mention the O word). Obama is the issue, and he made himself the issue. The American people were willing to give him a chance despite his total lack of real world experience and the fact that he had never held a position of responsibility in his life. His incompetence was revealed early on as he abdicate any responsibility for his stimulus to the congress. Today his narcissism, arrogance and condescension are further alienating the American people. Now we have the Rolling Stone revealing that Obama wants to become "whiner in chief" as well ("Fox News is mean to me"). The American people expect better and they are willing to make the change so that they have some hope.

[Bill Fleming]

George, did you vote for Obama? KB? DuggerSD?

I get a real kick out of you guys saying how "disappointed" you are.
Come on. I thought this was a "thinking man's" blog over here.

Who are you guys trying to kid?

[KB]

I never claimed to be disappointed. Quite the opposite. I am entertained by incompetence, especially on the other side.

[George Mason]

Bill old buddy. I did not vote for Obama and Obama delivered exactly what I expected. Some of us took a close look at Obama before he was elected and actually thought about the consequences.

[Donald Pay]

Principal funders of the Tea Party group in Wisconsin and in about a third of the states is Americans For Prosperity. This is an oil industry funded group. The Tea Party is not a grassroots organization here in Wisconsin, though their are some local affiliates that have eschewed the Koch money and remained somewhat independent.

In Wisconsin AFP organized and funded the very first Tea Party tax day event, and all subsequent events purported to be put on by the Tea Party. AFP pays right wing media to promote and cover their events. The Tea Party is an astroturf movement, totally dominated by the corporate elitists.

You can read about Americans for Prosperity here:

http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Americans_for_Prosperity

[duggersd]

Bill, no I did not vote for Obama. And where have I ever said I am disappointed in him? Unlike KB, I am not entertained by incompetence especially when the people in charge are driving our economy into the ditch and do not have brains enough to turn the wheel over to some competent people. Instead they think they have all of the answers and keep getting it deeper and deeper into the mud.
Go ahead and tell us that the people from the TEA party are astroturfed groups. Keep it up. You will find come election day you laughed at them at the peril of your candidates.
Donald, every time the TEA party gets slammed it turns out the slam is not true. First it was racist. Not true. Then homophobe. Not true. Now it is an astroturf organization. Again, not true, opinion of a left wing "source" notwithstanding. It is the Democrats and liberal organizations that bring out the astroturf crowds and then they project those onto their opponents. Take the log out of your own eye first.

[Donald Pay]

The "incompetents" left the building in January 2009, and are now trying to sneak back by ginning up one false issue after another through their myriad astro-turf organizations.