Good News & Bad New 4 Republicans from Delaware UPDATE!

The bad news is that the Republicans very likely just lost a Senate seat that was well within their grasp. The good news is the wind that has been filling the sails of Republican candidates all year long is still blowing at gale strength.

Senate hopeful Christine O'Donnell won 53% of the vote in Delaware's Republican primary, to Mike Castle's 47%. The Republican Party establishment, along with most GOP friendly pundits, analysts, not to mention bloggers, is disappointed. Democrats everywhere are elated.

Mike Castle served two terms as Governor of Delaware and 18 years as the state's lone representative in the U.S. House. He is a very popular politician and was widely expected to win Joe Biden's Senate seat if he had been nominated. That would be quite a feather in the GOP's cap.

Christine O'Donnell came out of nowhere. She is very conservative, especially on social issues. She seems to have a lot of personal baggage that will be exploited by the Democrats over the next few weeks. Delaware is two states in one, rather small state. Upper Delaware is largely a suburb of Philadelphia. Lower Delaware is another animal altogether. The state has been reliably liberal and Democratic for a long time. It is hard to see how O'Donnell can win it.

So why did O'Donnell win the primary? She won because Mike Castle's strengths suddenly became fatal weaknesses. Mike Castle got a lifetime rating from the American Conservative Union of 52. John Boehner got 94. Lisa Murkowski got 70. Barbara Boxer got 3. That puts Castle squarely in the middle. It is what made him viable as a Republican in Delaware. But it also made him look like a RINO (Republican In Name Only) to a very energized Republican base, a conspicuous part of which is known as the Tea Party.

Democrats have been hoping this year that the Tea Party movement would tear the Republican Party apart. That didn't happen, though one can argue that the TP is responsible for weaker candidates in several races. Delaware is certainly one of them.

Now all the horses (well, except for Hawaii) are at the starting gate. The Tea Party people are not to be trifled with. Their support for the Republican Party will probably be almost unanimous this year, but it is conditional. They expect Republicans to behave like Republicans.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee has said that it will not support her. That looks to me like a grievous mistake. The folks who put O'Donnell over the top are the same folks who have been putting flame to the feat of Democratic Congressman and Senators all over the country.

This year the Tea Party activists are the vanguard of a large popular motion in the U.S. It looks like they will help sweep the Republicans to victory in the House and close to victory in the Senate. This election is important, but the Republicans ought also to be looking to the future. Snubbing Christine O'Donnell is snubbing the Republican base in Delaware. That is not good politics.

In the meantime (now until November 2^nd), the gale is blowing fiercely to the right. It blew O'Donnell past Castle. It will blow a lot of Democrats clean off of Capitol Hill.

UPDATE!  Senator Cornyn says that the NRSC is extending full support to Christine O'Donnell. 

Comments

[paul randazzo]

being a republican most of my life until a year ago i switched to independent
it is stupidity like this [not supporting someone the people want]that makes me glad i did
LISTEN TO THE PEOPLE MORONS AND HELP HER

[William]

In a "normal election year" Christine O'Donnell would indeed be "toast", but this is anything but a "normal election year". "Barack Obama's approval rating there is now under water at 46% happy with the job he's doing and 48% disapproving. That's a pretty amazing drop in a state where he won 62% of the vote." http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/09/obama-liability-in-senate-battlegrounds.html O'Donnell is far from the "best pick" that conservatives could have hoped for, but she's only down 16% at this point and given some of the other upsets we've seen this year, it's not inconceivable that she can win the general election. Even if the GOP does not reach a majority in the Senate this year (always a reach), they will have a substantial gain in seats and incumbents (of both parties) will be on notice. Americans are tired of "politics as usual".

Both major parties "brands" are damaged goods, however the Republican Party has the most to gain by the populist conservative/libertarian movement exemplified by the Tea Party. The Republican Party gains by default, as it is the only major party with currently elected officials and candidates that have any credibility with the fast growing grassroots uprising against government overreach and fiscal insanity. What's been under reported, thus far, is that the Republican Party is already being taken over at the precinct and state levels across the country. The "RINO" leadership and elected officials that have grown comfortable by being "Democrat Lite" are likely running the last campaign where they still hold substantial power over candidate selection and financing.

[Donald Pay]

I have to laugh at people who take polls this far out seriously. The whole race horse aspect of political races is a symptom of shallow reporting.

Polls at this point are useful for telling you what ads or issues are moving people, but counting Senate and House seats at this point is all b.s. Feingold's down by 1 percent (according to Rasmussen) and the Republicans think he's toast, yet O'Donnell is down 16%, according to William, and he has to append "only down 16% at this point..."

I'm not sure how strongly that rightward gale is blowing. There's no evidence of that here in Wisconsin. Turnout was dismal. There was a lot of hype for the Tea Party on righty radio, but the Tea Party here in Wisconsin got sidetracked two Aprils ago by the same corporate interests that have run the Republican Party for years. Righty radio ended up in lockstep support of corporate establishment candidates against the more conservative choice. Corporate media supports corporate candidates--no surprise there. The only people who came out in any numbers were the Milwaukee County voters, who had two people in opposite parties running from Governor.

[Kelly Lieberg]

Trailing late with red hot bats and the Dems are deep into their bullpen. Meanwhile, the hometown crowd is on their feet in a standing room only crowd. Guess I'll go home and read about it tomarrow. Get with the program !

[KB]

William: I think you describe the situation correctly.

Donald: After Labor Day is precisely when analysts begin taking the polls very seriously.

[George Mason]

KB; The first Rasmussen Poll has come out and O'Donnell is within striking distance. (Remember Scott Brown)(and O'Donnell for that matter). William may have this sized up correctly. Donald still appears to be in denial.