Noem over Herseth-Sandlin by 9 Points

With eighty-seven days to go until the midterm elections, Kristi Noem leads Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin by a healthy nine points, according to the most recent Rasmussen poll.

	Now	July	June
Noem	51%	49%	53%
Herseth-Sandlin	42%	44%	41%

 

It has seemed for some time that HS is in a very vulnerable position. She has never been over fifty percent in any poll this year. Her numbers above seem pretty consistent with what she was showing before the primary.

Rasmussen has some very interesting stats on the support each candidate enjoys.

Both Noem and Herseth-Sandlin earn just over 75% support from voters in their respective parties. Noem holds a nearly two-to-one advantage among voters not affiliated with either major party.

Noem is viewed as politically conservative by 70% of South Dakota's voters.

Thirty-six percent (36%) view Herseth-Sandlin as a liberal. But 30% say she's moderate, while another 30% label her as conservative.

It is curious, is it not, that the two candidates apparently do not have the support of a quarter of their own parties. I would speculate that HS is losing both the most liberal and the most conservative Democrats. Noem is losing Republicans who have a personal attachment to HS and those who view Noem as an extremist. That's just guesswork. Either way, three quarters of Republicans beats three quarters of Democrats in South Dakota.

What is really retarding Representative Herseth-Sandlin's reelection bid is Noem's two to one advantage among independents. That, I think, is less a reflection on the character of either candidate, than evidence of a conservative shift among independents. That is indicated by the 70% of likely voters who view Noem as a conservative. It is reinforced by the recent voter behavior in Missouri, Michigan, and Tennessee, and by the very low approval rating for President Obama in the state (41% approval vs. 58% disapproval), numbers that mirror trends in many battleground states.

Rasmussen also finds the Republican leading in the Governor's race, though this is, I think, more detached from national trends and more indicative of very stable voter behavior in the Rushmore State.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the state finds Daugaard, the current lieutenant governor, leading Heidepriem by better than two-to-one, 59% to 27%. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and 10% are undecided.

Of course my friends at Madville Times and Badlands Blue, like my friend and occasional interlocutor A.I., are wont to dismiss Rasmussen as biased. The pollster seems to be sensitive to this criticism, and includes some relevant data.

In South Dakota, Rasmussen Reports projected that McCain would defeat Obama by a 53% to 44% margin. McCain won 53% to 45%. In that same year, the final Rasmussen poll showed Senator Tim Johnson with a 54% to 38% lead over Joel Dykstra. Johnson won 62% to 38%.

We are now at the point where public opinion, in its only official form, begins to solidify. Unless Scott Rasmussen's poll is not only off but way off, Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin is not going to win her bid for reelection. Maybe that's a good thing and maybe it's a bad thing, but it's a thang, as we say down south. It reinforces and is reinforced by evidence of national trends.

If someone gave me a big pile of money to bet on the election, I'd bet that the next Speaker of the House will not be Nancy Pelosi.

Comments

[BillW]

I was most struck by "Thirty-six percent (36%) view Herseth-Sandlin as a liberal. But 30% say she's moderate, while another 30% label her as conservative"

That near equal split in the perception of her is remarkable.

To some extent this is probebly an indication that one man's liberal is another man's conservative. Whether I think you are liberal or conservative depends a lot on where I sit. Anyone to my left is a liberal and anyone to my right is a conservative.

But I have to believe it is also reflective of Herseth-Sandlin being more of a politician than a principled leader. She tries to be everything to everyone and ends up not being much of anything to anyone.

[KB]

BillW: I suspect you are right about that. Sometimes triangulating works. Sometimes you just end up in three pieces.

[William]

I think this "blended" perception of SHS will ultimately work against her this year, as she will find it much more difficult to be "all things, to all people" in this race. As some voters inevitably realize she's NOT the conservative/moderate they thought she was, their support will fade.

Senator Franken certainly undermined her conservative/moderate persona with this quote from yesterdays visit to Pine Ridge: "She has voted differently than I voted on a couple of things, but we need to be able to have somebody here in South Dakota who’s going to vote for Speaker Pelosi, not for Speaker Boehner."

- US Senator Al Franken on Congresswoman Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (RCJ, 8/8/10)

Thanks Al!!!

[Lynn]

SHS's problems this year started last year when she essentially blew off her constituents regarding open meetings/town halls to discuss the health care bill. She showed what she thought of us, and now we will show her what we think of her!

And thanks from me too to Al for all the "help" he gave SHS!

[KB]

To all: I am not sure that HS could have done anything much differently that would have boosted her reelection prospects. In a state where Republicans outnumber Democrats, a Democrat holds onto a House or Senate seat by force of personality. We like Tim Johnson, so he is holding on. We like Stephanie. However,the politics of the last two years forced us to distinguish between HS as a person and HS as a political position. Once that began to happen, she was stuck playing wack a mole. Anything she did to shore up one constituency lost her ground with another.

But William: I love that quote from Franken! Did he really think he was helping? HS is a vote for NP (Nancy Pelosi). If most South Dakotans grasp that fact, HS is out of a job.

[William]

KB,

One quibble, voters LIKED Tim Johnson when he last ran for re-election, I doubt he would win again, as he's been a very reliable vote for Reid in the Senate since then.

Franken, think? Not likely - lol You can be sure that Speaker Pelosi will be a prominent figure in this race.

[Lynn]

Another quibble: Voters were more sorry for Johnson last election and his staff did not allow a fair campaign. Any criticism of Johnson was immediately countered with "but he's been sick" etc. This did not allow for a fair discussion of issues and stances, and Johnson thus won. Maybe he would have won with a fair campaign, maybe not, but a fair campaign on the issues was never allowed, and we the voters are now paying the price with this "reliable vote for Reid."

[duggersd]

And perhaps just one more quibble? Johnson did not have a truly viable challenger. Joel Dykstra is a nice guy and I believe he could be a good Senator, but he did not have funding to put forth a real campaign.

[KB]

To all: I dissent slightly. I have met Tim and I liked him. I am sure that that feeling is widely shared in the state, and I doubt that it has changed much. Yes, it was harder to run against Tim Johnson after his illness. My own view is that he should not have run for reelection. But he did and he won.

[William]

KB,

Senator Johnson's biggest "selling point" has always been his "like-ability" and I don't dispute that, I DO think that he would find it difficult to be re-elected "if we knew than, what we know now". SHS has generally been viewed as "like-able" and, barring any major flaws or mis-steps in Kristi Noem's campaign, I find it unlikely that she'll be re-elected.

[Kurt]

Kristi is going to mop the floor with Stephie Herseth-Weasel. Goodby you sack of....