South Dakota Politics: Election Guesses, State Edition

Life and the county fair interfered with blogging yesterday, so let me get to the promised blog on state elections. I should note that I forgot to open comments on the national election post, but I just took care of that.

There are bloggers who follow state legislative races closer than I, but from what I can see most members of the state legislature are firmly ensconced. Any changes will be at the margin and certainly will not represent much change in the status quo, namely Republican domination of the legislature.

For a brief moment in time it looked like the Democrats had a candidate for governor, Scott Heidepriem, who might actually make things interesting. But looking at where things are now, once again the only excitement in the governor race is whether the race will be called two minutes or three minutes after the polls close West River.

It is a crying shame that the Democrats couldn't come up with a candidate to challenge John Thune. I recall being at an event honoring George McGovern a week after the 2004 election. The anger amongst the many Democrats there was palpable. They REALLY hated John Thune. And what became of that anger? Nothing. For now. I noticed the other day that Democrats in Idaho have a sacrificial lamb to run against Mike Crapo and Republicans have the same in the Vermont race against Pat Leahy. Sitting Senators should not run unopposed, and the Democrats have failed our state by not providing an alternative, even if one almost certain to lose.

Obviously the big race is for the US House seat. If the election were held today...no one would show up because we all think the election is in November. HA!! That joke never gets old. Actually, I think if the election were held today Kristi Noem would win. Noem impressed me by being the last Republican to announce for the primary and then proceeding to win by a solid margin. That shows organization and the ability to win people over. Noem has the charisma, the agriculture background, and the fund raising ability to give Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (SHS) a run for her money. It helps Republicans having a woman nominee because to defeat an incumbent you have to punch hard from time to time, and let's be honest, there is something disconcerting about having a man punch a woman (Everyone knows I am talking metaphors, right? No one is actually punching anyone, we hope).

I am curious to see how SHS responds. So far it seems that she will enhance her "girl next door" image. Her early ads have featured her family, efffectively at that, I think. A sidenote, though. Given her husband's already controversial lobbying background, SHS might want to be careful how much she makes her family part of her campaign. Max the Husband plays well. Max the High Priced Washington Lobbyist...not so much. In this sense, SHS has to make sure that she is seen as being part of a typical South Dakota family rather then as one half of a Washington DC power couple. I wonder how long it takes before SHS takes off the gloves (ack, more punching metaphors!), which she has done a little with the Social Security attacks. Given the national mood, which seems in part to mirrored in our state, I think SHS will have to bloody up Noem (metaphorically!!!) to win. I think SHS is in a disadvantageous position, which means she must go on the offensive to show that even if you aren't happy with her and/or her party, Noem is not an acceptable alternative.

RCP has this race as Leans Republican and Charlie Cook has it as a toss up. I don't count out SHS at all, but my best guess right now is that while Noem's current lead will shrink, she sqeaks out a narrow win. I suspect we will be up all night hitting "refresh" at the Secretary of State's site,no matter what the outcome.

Comments are welcome.