Noem Leads Herseth-Sandlin 53%-41%

In the latest Rasmussen poll. Part of that, no doubt, is post-primary bounce. On the other hand, HS has been stuck in the forties all year against pretty much every Republican contender.

When challengers take on an incumbent member of Congress, they almost always get a bounce in the polls following a victory in a contested primary. That appears to be the case in South Dakota following State Representative Kristi Noem's Republican Primary victory last Tuesday which earns her the right to challenge Congresswoman Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin.

The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey, conducted two nights after the primary, finds Noem attracting 53% of the vote, while Herseth-Sandlin earns just 41%. Just five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate or are undecided.

Prior to the primary, the incumbent held a three-point advantage over Noem. In April, Noem trailed by 15 points. It remains to be seen whether the bounce reflects a temporary aberration or signals a lasting change in the race.

These are very weak numbers for HS. Even if Noem loses some of her primary, bounce, I think she still comes out ahead. Short of a big misstep by the Noem campaign, it's Representative Herseth-Sandlin has her work cut out for her.

Meanwhile Senator Thune leads his opponent by… wait a minute! He has no opponent.

Comments

[William]

Due to a "high road" primary campaign where none of the candidates went negative, Nelson/Curd supporters don't have great difficulty shifting their support to Kristi and there is real party unity behind her.

One vote Stephanie can't excuse or explain away is her vote for the Speaker of the House. Can Stephanie win if she pledges to vote AGAINST Pelosi for Speaker in the next term? Can she win if she doesn't?

[Lynn]

Why would anyone think that Stephanie is to be believed if she were to pledge not to vote for Pelosi for speaker? She apparently pledged not to vote to repeat the health care bill in order to get Weiland to drop out of the primary; now she is hedging her bets on this and claims that didn't happen. Weiland-gate is waiting in the wings to get her once she starts campaigning. Does anyone really think that she would have voted against the health care bill in the first place if her vote would have killed the bill? If you believe that, I have a number of bridges....

Stephanie's goose is cooked based on her prior voting record, Weiland-gate, refusal to debate, evident contempt for her constituents by refusing to meet with them, and for some her vote for Obama even though the state went for Clinton. As my grandson would say, bye-bye Stephanie!

[Ingrid]

"Intellectuals may wear glasses and read books, but ntieher prevents them from throwing bombs..." Obama knows that, because his close friends, Bill Ayres and Bernardine Dohrn, fit that exact description.Off topic, but Ms. Applebaum has compiled a devastating account of Russian concentration camps in, "The Gulag: A History." Progressives should take the time to see where their utopian socialist programs lead.Re: Steve Schmidt (and McCain) - When the initial back-biting and anonymous trashing of Sarah Palin was finally traced to former McCain staffers, I don't recall McCain coming to Palin's defense or even admonishing his former flack(s) to "knock it off." And during the campaign itself, McCain had to be dragged kicking and screaming, by all accounts, into accepting Palin as his VP choice, let alone allowing her to campaign as a conservative rather than the RINO he (McCain) is. Therefore, for my money, Schmidt is just continuing along a road his (former) boss sent him long ago. Maybe McCain still sees Palin as a threat to his own party position and is using Schmidt to keep up the trashing? Personally, I'm donating to McCain's challenger's campaign.