Election Shaman Rolls the Bones of June

My friend the Election Shaman is back to divine the meaning of the political winds and the subtle voice of invisible spirits.

South Dakota

ES notes that the Gubernatorial Republican Primary seems rather insulated from the currents of the election year. Lt. Governor Dennis Daugaard steps up to run for governor and he easily wins the nomination. That is exactly what you would expect in a typical election year. No insurgent candidate, Tea Party affiliated or otherwise, got any traction.

The House Republican Primary is rather different. In a typical year, you would expect Chris Nelson to win. Kristi Noem, all but unknown a few months ago, beat Nelson by a healthy seven percent. ES says: this year the spirits nationally (if capriciously) favor newcomers against more established candidates, and they seem to have a fondness for women.

The Shaman also says more than I would say about the South Dakota race. He says that if you ask the bones who would have made the best Representative, they point to Nelson. If you ask them who would make the best candidate in the fall, they point to Noem. Noem is intelligent, ambitious, and seems to have the wind behind her. She is very photogenic, and has a large, equally photogenic family. She is a ranch wife who, she reports, was compelled to return to the ranch before she could finish her college degree. There is powerful political magic in all that. The Shaman thinks she will be a formidable candidate in the fall.

California

The Shaman notes two more women winning Republican primaries. Meg Whitman flattened Steve Poizner in the Republican Gubernatorial Primary, and Carly Fiorina did likewise in Senate Republican Primary. The Shaman thinks that Whitman has her work cut out for her against perennial politico-mage Jerry Brown. Fiorina has a real chance against Barbara Boxer, whose powers have seemed perilously weak of late.

Nevada

Another event in the year of the Republican woman occurred in Nevada: Sharon Angle, a genuine insurgent candidate, won the primary and will face Harry Reid in November. The Shaman thinks that the mark of doom is on Reid's forehead: he sees the words "health care reform" written in blood across a skull. Or something like that. I am not so sure, but I am sure that's what it looks like.

Arkansas

Blanche Lincoln defeated Bill Halter in the Democratic Senate runoff. This might be the most interesting race today. Halter was a Democratic insurgent, the champion of the Left and especially unions. He tried to punish Lincoln for being insufficiently leftist, thus testing the thesis the Democrats can win by being true to their more liberal instincts. Well, it's been tested. Arkansas Democrats decided that racing full speed toward the precipice was not a strategy they had confidence in.

The Shaman thinks that Lincoln is doomed. She is running about 25 points behind solid conservative John Boozman, the Republican nominee. Senator Lincoln may get a bump from her runoff victory, which many thought would not happen. A bump won't do it.

Wrap Up.

The Shaman sees a number of spirits at work here, at different levels in different places. Women are doing well, challengers are doing well, and outsider candidates are doing well against established candidates. Overall, the conservative spirit seems to be very strong.

It is not easy to test the strength of the Republican spirit in these primaries, but fellow election shaman Michael Barone takes a shot at it.

Primary turnout is a useful measure of enthusiasm, particularly in a state with no party registration. Take Virginia 8, the heavily Democratic Northern Virginia district just across the Potomac River from Washington. This is the only district in Virginia that has had a contested Republican primary in the last three congressional elections. Turnout in 2006 was 4,409 and turnout in 2008 was 5,863. Turnout in Tuesday's primary, with 2 of 156 precincts yet to report, was 13,531. In other words, more than double 2008 and triple 2006; and more than both put together. Another indicator of Republican enthusiasm this year.

Republicans are polling well ahead of Democrats generically across the nation. They are doing very well among independents. All polls indicate a much higher level of enthusiasm among GOP voters. Virginia 8 confirms what the polls are saying about that. The Shaman sees big changes ahead in November.

ps. My friend and grad school buddy John Eastman seems to be losing his bid for the Republican nomination in the California Attorney General race. This is a shame. Eastman is one of the most intelligent conservatives I know, and he would have made an excellent Att. General. I think he is a rising star in the California Republican Party.

pps. Despite my endorsement, Mickey Kaus somehow failed to defeat Senator Barbara Boxer in the California Democratic primary. He must have run a bad campaign. That's another terrible shame.

Comments

[Anthony Renli]

You missed one (semi-important) California result: A train wreck averted by the California GOP. Birther Queen Orly Taitz lost (and list big) in her bid to take the GOP nomination for the California Secretary of State. She was defeated 25% to Damon Dunn’s 75%. While neither has a good chance to take the SOS job, it would have really hurt the rest of the GOP ticket by pressing her conspiracy theories as major points during every campaign event and press conference.

Oh…and yes – she is trying to sue Dunn saying he was ineligible to run in the Republican Primary because at one time he was registered as a Democrat in Florida.

[RobinDenke]

You got chops cat, Good writing.

[BillW]

Does the Shman have any insights regarding the Dems choice Dems in the South Carloina Senate primary? I doubt that even the Shaman can 'splain that one.

[KB]

Robin: Thanks.

BW: Oh yea of little faith. The Election Shaman agrees with Rep. James Clyburn that Alvin Greene is a "plant". But ES thinks he is not a Republican plant, but is in fact no human being. He is a mischievous spirit elected by other mischievous spirits to do what? Make mischief. All of those involved in this election, including Republican Senator Jim DeMint, should beware of him.