Today the Election Shaman returns from the deep forests and haunted caves to come again within wifi range. The Shaman informs me that he is most interested in what he calls the voodoo seats. Go figure.
The Republicans are calling these "trophy seats." They are the Senate seats up in Illinois, Delaware, and Nevada. That would be Barack Obama's former seat, Joe Biden's former seat, and the seat the Senate Majority Harry Reid is currently clinging to the very edge of. Republicans think that a victory in any of these races, let alone all three, would have significant symbolic value. It would symbolize refutation.
The Shaman is not interested in symbols. He is interested in spirits and magic, and he thinks that a Republican victory in any of these seats would push a pin into a voodoo doll, a doll that looks like a map of the U.S. and has a lot of Democratic hairs and fingernails woven into it.
The Shaman reminds me that one such pin was already driven into the map when Scott Brown won the seat formerly held by Ted Kennedy. Powerful magic that was. So what about the others?
As for Nevada, the Shaman thinks that the spirits large and small have altogether abandoned Harry Reid. Reid is running about ten points behind two Republican contenders, and isn't running ahead of anyone important enough to consider in a poll. The Shaman thinks that an undocumented worker under indictment for bank fraud could beat Reid. If the Shaman is right, that's one more pin.
In Delaware, the Shaman notes that Republican Mike Castle is running 55/32 against likely Democratic nominee Chris Coons. The Shaman likes the name "Castle" and thinks it may confer certain powers. He urges Republicans in Delaware to carry a characteristic chess piece in their pockets, and sleep with it under their pillows. That would be a third pin.
And then there is the great wizard's house itself. In Illinois, Representative Mark Kirk is eight points ahead of Democrat Alexi Giannoulias for Barack Obama's former seat. The Shaman thinks that the recent seizure of a Giannoulias family bank by Federal Regulators was an omen. Push that pin in, and the map will actually moan.
I have been pressing the Shaman to tell me what the bones say about the election as a whole, but he just makes weird signs in the air. I do notice that when he casts the bones, he gets an astonished look on his face and doesn't move for hours.
I also spied him rubbing John Murtha's former House seat and mumbling something. So I consulted Sean Trende, another election shaman. He has this:
DailyKos/Research2000 finds Republican Tim Burns up six points over Democrat Mark Critz, 46%-40% in the race to replace John Murtha. Large portions of this district haven't been held by a Republican since before the New Deal. This isn't the type of district that Republicans have to take in order to take back the House, but it is exactly the type of district that Republicans have to take to do better than they did in 1994. Obama sports a 38% favorability rating in the district. This is the second poll in a row to show Burns up, in a race that's looking more and more like a pickup. The election will be May 18.
The Election Shaman reminds me that the spirits are capricious. It's his job to make predictions, not mine, so he has greater need for caution. But I note that a good friend of mine, Professor Casca, a Democrat, made these remarks when I met him yesterday:
Against the Capitol I met a lion,
Who glared upon me, and went surly by,
Without annoying me: and there were drawn
Upon a heap a hundred ghastly women,
Transformed with their fear; who swore they saw
Men all in fire walk up and down the streets.
And yesterday the bird of night did sit
Even at noon-day upon the market-place,
Hooting and shrieking. When these prodigies
Do so conjointly meet, let not men say
'These are their reasons; they are natural;'
For, I believe, they are portentous things
Unto the climate that they point upon.
Maybe it was something he ate. Something was surely eating him. The Election Shaman will check back in from time to time.
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