Our mother country goes to the polls tomorrow, a few days short of Mother's Day. It is worth taking notice. England, like the U.S., Europe, and the rest of the developed world, is in a fiscal pickle. The voters there, as here, are angry at the established parties. There, as here, this is likely to benefit one established party over another.
England is a two party system with three parties. The party or coalition of parties that control enough seats gets to "form a government". The government controls the legislative and the executive branches, as we Yanks would put it. Labour is in power. The Tories, or Conservatives, want to get in power. The Liberal Democrats want to get on the front page.
Until recently, every poll suggested that the Tories will win the larger share of the vote, but will not win enough seats to control Parliament. If that happens we get a "hung parliament," where no party wins an outright majority (326 seats, all things being equal). In that case, the two major parties will try to attract enough of the remaining seats to form a majority. In most parliamentary systems, that is standard procedure.
It looked for a while possible that Labour and the Liberal Democrats would get enough seats to put a Labour dominated coalition back into power. The Brits followed the American example and held televised debates. Nick Clegg, the Lib Dem leader won the first two, raising his prospects. But Conservative leader David Cameron won the third. Last is best. The Liberal Democrats have since been sinking in the polls. Labour Leader Gordon Brown got shellacked in all three, and that's without his infamous gaffe.
The Tories will form the next British Government. Michael Barone, our man in Britain right now, has this:
Since the Sinn Fein members elected in Northern Ireland do not take their seats (they don't want to concede that they're rightfully in the United Kingdom) and since the Ulster Unionists are likely to vote with the Conservatives, David Cameron and his party do not need quite 326 seats for a majority.
God bless the Irish. The London Telegraph has this:
Northern Ireland MPs have indicated that they will formally back the Conservative leader if he protects the region from this year's public spending cuts. The move would cost up to £200million.
The deal, which Mr Cameron will be under pressure to accept, would give his party another nine or 10 parliamentary seats.
Well, President Barack Obama ought to be comfortable with that sort of thing, having paid off the pharmacy industry and the trial lawyers to get health care reform.
Acting according to the principle "nothing ventured, nothing gained," I predict that the Tories will win enough seats to form a government on their own. No hung parliament. I think the Brits are coming around to the idea that someone (and especially someone else) needs to do something about their situation. If I am right, I will look very wise. If not, well, never mind.
KB; In Re the last paragraph. You are turning into an American journalist.
Posted by: George Mason | Wednesday, May 05, 2010 at 09:06 PM
Our "Mother Country?!?" huh??? LOL Yah, some...some of our ancestors came from Britain...but, we fought a Revolution not to be Britain's "Child" country. If they truly were our "Mother Country," we would still be worshipping their Queen and I have not seen that happening since I was born in 1975....LOL KB, you crack me up sometimes...thanks for the comical relief, we need it in times like these! LOL
Posted by: Guard | Wednesday, May 05, 2010 at 09:57 PM
In actuality, Britain has been the "child nation" of the powerful United States of America since WWII. We rule the world and the UK takes our cues.
Posted by: Guard | Wednesday, May 05, 2010 at 10:00 PM
If the Exit Polls are any indication, you are about to look very wise.
307 Tories
255 Labour
59 Lib Dems
We'll see how accurate the polls are.
Posted by: Miranda Flint | Thursday, May 06, 2010 at 04:29 PM
Still a hung parliament, but a substantial Tory win, nonetheless.
Posted by: Miranda Flint | Thursday, May 06, 2010 at 04:38 PM
Miranda: It is looking like a hung parliament, which diminishes my claim to wisdom somewhat. I haven't given up hope.
George: I am more or less getting paid like a real journalist.
Guard: you are easily amused.
Posted by: KB | Friday, May 07, 2010 at 12:19 AM
It's now official that the UK has a hung parliament.
While you may not appear as wise as you might have had the Tories won a majority, you can take comfort in the fact that you didn't suggest that Nick Clegg might have a chance of winning! My excitement now looks very foolish indeed.
Posted by: Miranda Flint | Friday, May 07, 2010 at 03:51 AM
Labour + Lib Dem = Governing Coalition. You notice how most of the Conservative gains were in England? I don't think the English ever liked a Scotsman as PM and it doesn't surprise me that Scotland remains heavily Labour. Part of my family comes from Scotland and I have to sympathize for them because the rivalry is still alive and well!
Posted by: Guard | Friday, May 07, 2010 at 11:14 AM
In fact, Labour support swing actually grew in Scotland and it was erratic all over the rest of the UK. I think this has more to do with the English-Scottish rivalry then anything else.
Posted by: Guard | Friday, May 07, 2010 at 11:16 AM
Conservatives lack a clear majority and thus they lack a clear mandate. Face it: this is going to be a prolonged mess.
Posted by: Guard | Friday, May 07, 2010 at 04:09 PM
Miranda: Clegg did look like a rising star for a bit there. And in fact, that is exactly what he is. Even though his party actually lost five seats, Cameron can't form a majority without him. I certainly agree with Guard on this one: it is going to be a mess.
Posted by: KB | Saturday, May 08, 2010 at 12:26 AM
Lib + Labour does not equal a majority. Unless, that is, they can find some fringe party MP's to sign on. UK is in a mess and who ever puts something together will have to call elections again very soon. Considering how the Liberals made out this probably plays into the hands of the Tories.
Posted by: George Mason | Saturday, May 08, 2010 at 09:48 AM
I think Prime Minister Brown is goint to begin some talks with Liberal-Democrat Leader Clegg in the coming weeks over forming this Majority Coalition Government with more seats than the Tories have. The Tories don't support "Proportional Representation" which the protestors are demanding now over the Election Fiasco in Conservative Districts. I think the Tories are scared that the new and more Representative system will kill their party all together, but, be better for the people of the UK in general. I see a Lib+Lab Majority-Ruling Coalition Ahead.
Posted by: Guard | Saturday, May 08, 2010 at 10:33 AM
Guard: proportional representation would do just as much damage to Labour as to the Tories. Labour certainly made no attempt to enact it during their long stay in power! Whether it would be better for the people of the UK is debatable.
I don't know what investment you have in a non-Tory government, but David Cameron is going to be Prime Minister. A Tory-Liberal Democrat coalition is apparently in the works now. I am guessing that Michael Barone is right, and that Gordon Brown will drive to see the Queen in a big car on Monday, and drive away in a smaller one.
Posted by: KB | Sunday, May 09, 2010 at 12:31 AM
KB, supposedly the BBC is reporting that while Liberal Democratic Leader, Nick Clegg was having discussions with David Cameron's Tories, his other ministers were in talks with Labour officials. These secret talks were held at the very same time of the so-called "Conservative Negotiations," and that Mr. Clegg, himself, met again with the Prime Minister.
Posted by: Guard | Monday, May 10, 2010 at 09:24 AM
The BBC is also reporting that Brown is stepping down and that Labour will attempt to negotiate with Clegg without him. This just keeps getting more fascinating.
Posted by: Miranda Flint | Monday, May 10, 2010 at 07:14 PM
Miranda and KB, I did indeed watch the Prime Minister's speech today from Number 10 Downing and it was quite revealing. The Prime Minister was correct in asserting that the nation needs a strong and stable government, however, as he also correctly stated that none of the political parties have a "commanded a clear majority" as the 2010 Election Results have stated. Therefore, the Prime Minister is preparing to step-down from his role as leader of the Labour Party for the good of the nation and this is an admirable step on the PM's part. Manwhile talks continue between all the parties and the Prime Minister does not rule out helping to ensure a strong viable coalition government that could then, be a true Majority-Ruled institution that is truly representative of all Britons, and just not England.
Posted by: Guard | Tuesday, May 11, 2010 at 09:37 AM
NOTE: I reported earlier that the Prime Minister is "preparing to step-down" when the time is right and the time will be "right" when talks are over and a coalition government is finally formed. The Prime Minister can not just resign now since a leader is still needed during the transition period. When a formal coalition is finally agreed to, then, and only then can the Prime Minister step-down for the new leadership to be invited to Buckingham Palace for formal talks with Queen Elizabeth. As the BBC has just reported: the Prime Minister's spokesperson has made it clear that the Prime Minister has NOT resigned. But, he had formally announced this morning from Number 10 Downing that IN THE FUTURE (possibly by September of this year) he will resign as Labour Party Leader. That is all at this time to end much speculation.
Posted by: Guard | Tuesday, May 11, 2010 at 11:10 AM
The latest from BBC News LIVE: Coalition Government Talks Continue between the Tories & The Liberal Democrats. . .It is NOW reported that formal talks have ended between Libral Democrats & Labour. . .The Prime Minister could tender his resignation as early as tonight, but, remain as Labour Leader until, at least, September of this year as he has stated he is preparing to resign from leading the Labour Party soon. Lord Mandalson is meeting with the Prime Minister now.
Posted by: Guard | Tuesday, May 11, 2010 at 11:37 AM
It appears we are very close to a Tory-Liberal Democrat Ruling Coalition Government. . .It appears David Cameron could be Prime Minister as soon as this Afternoon.
Posted by: Guard | Tuesday, May 11, 2010 at 12:47 PM
As I said, Cameron will be PM. It is perhaps an excess of charity to say that Gordon Brown resigned for "the good of the nation." He resigned because he had no choice. Even if a Labour/Liberal coalition had been possible, he would have had to go. But such a coalition was not possible. That Labour kept trying for one was not something they did "for the good of the nation." It was something they did to grasp at any chance to hold on. The Liberal Dems, meanwhile, probably went through the charade only to strengthen their bargaining position with the Tories.
As Miranda says, this is fascinating.
Posted by: KB | Tuesday, May 11, 2010 at 10:28 PM
It appears to be "The Dave and Nick Show" at Number 10 Downing for the next 5 years as we will be witness to the Liberal Democrat - Tory Ruling Coalition. If anything, "The Dave and Nick Show" may get as good as ratings as "The Mary Tyler Moore Show" in the 1970's. LOL
Posted by: Guard | Wednesday, May 12, 2010 at 04:49 PM
It's like: "Dave needs Nick and Nick needs Dave..." LOL
Posted by: Guard | Wednesday, May 12, 2010 at 04:51 PM
The Independent out of London reports in headline: "Dave and Nick, Britain's new power couple". I wonder if Mary Tyler Moore would mind if Dave and Nick share her theme song: "Love is All Around?" LOL
Posted by: Guard | Wednesday, May 12, 2010 at 04:58 PM
The Dave and Nick press conference needed that theme song.
Posted by: KB | Thursday, May 13, 2010 at 01:12 AM
Former Prime Minister Gordon Brown is continuing to prove himself of high character and that he truly stepped-down out of a sense of respect for Britain's democracy. The "continuing to prove" part comes from his latest decision to remain at Westminster as a backbench MP for the Labour Party. He made that official announcement today while addressing a students at Adam Smith College in his home district of Kircaldy. This shows not only his deep and great respect for the democratic process, but, it also shows an unwavering committment to serve the people he represents, although, he no longer could serve as Prime Minister after talks broke down between him and now Deputy Prime Minister, Nick Clegg of the ruling Liberal Democrat - Tory Coalition. Brown's character is very high in this regard along with the years he worked hard for Tony Blair and his Labour Party, as well as, the people of the UK.
Posted by: Guard | Thursday, May 13, 2010 at 11:56 AM