Nick Clegg and Third Party Success

 

  

Disillusioned third-party voters may find the latest political news from the UK heartening. The most recent polls now show Nick Clegg of the Liberal Democrats pulling ahead of the candidates of both major parties (David Cameron of the Tories and Gordon Brown of the Labour Party). Clegg, who was, until recently, known for being unknown, gained popularity after impressing voters during Britain's first televised debates.

This is somewhat incredible. Labour has been in power for 13 years. Therefore, any change would mean something. But what makes Clegg's rise even more meaningful is the fact that the last time a member of a party other than Labour or Conservative held the office of Prime Minister was in 1918 (92 years ago). A Clegg win, then, would be monumental. The fact that he has managed to overtake his opponents in the polls is impressive in itself. Until a few weeks ago, even Clegg supporters thought the candidate's chances of winning were slim to none.

Third-party voters in the United States often feel the same way about their candidates' chances. But could something similar happen in the United States?

History suggests that it is highly unlikely. The last time a third-party candidate held the office of president in the United States was in 1860, when Abraham Lincoln led the Republicans to victory over the Whigs and Democrats. That was 150 years ago.

On the other hand, the sentiment of the present day American public toward the two reigning parties is much like that of the UK's citizens toward Labour and the Tories. Congress's low approval rating, the voluntary withdrawals of many incumbent Democrats from impending elections and Obama's recent return to campaigning (as detailed in this story), give evidence of the public's disappointment in the Democrats. Meanwhile, McCain's loss in the last presidential election and the increased momentum of the tea party movements across the nation show the public's disillusion with the Republican Party. Liberals and Conservatives alike seem to despise Washington Politics.

Before Clegg's rise, the British Public had expressed similar disgust with its politicians. The Economist put it this way:

Vote Brown -- "The Devil You Know"

Vote Cameron -- "The Devil You Don't"

Vote Clegg -- "Who The Devil?"

This sort of sentiment has a great deal to do with Clegg's success. Clegg also had the advantage of appearing in a novel sort of debate. It is true that televised debates are not novel here and that they are less likely to make as much of an impression on the American public as they have on the British. Still, what mattered more than the fact that the debate was televised was what was televised. Many third party candidates are eccentric, radical, and awkward. Consider Ross Perot, Ron Paul or Ralph Nader. Each is admirable in his own way. But each is a little odd.

Clegg, on the other hand, is handsome, charismatic, eloquent and reasonable. He seems moderate and commonsensical, rather than radical. Furthermore, he presents himself as one of the people, fighting from the outside against dishonesty and corruption in politics in the status quo. And whether or not Clegg is as honest as he asks others to be, his message has struck a chord with the British public.

If such a candidate were to run for a third-party in America, might he win? It is unlikely. But, as our friends in the UK are proving, the unlikely does sometimes happen.

Edit: Valued commenters George Mason and Guard have nicely pointed out that I am an idiot. As the UK's election system is more party centred than the American system, Clegg's newfound popularity is not as monumental as I suggested. Mason and Guard point out rightly that in order for Clegg to become Prime Minister, his party will have to win a majority of seats in parliament - no easy feat.

Not only that, but the results of the last prime ministerial debate are markedly different. Tory David Cameron is now leading by a substantial margin and Gordon Brown is also ranking higher than Clegg in some polls.

Many thanks to the commenters, who I must confess, are more knowledgeable than I am on this topic.

Comments

[George Mason]

Miranda; Clegg would have a far better chance of becoming President under our system the PM under the British system. The Liberals will have to win a majority of seats in Parliament to make him PM, or he will have to form a minority government with one of his opponents sitting next to him. It certainly is fascinating to watch.

[Guard]

George is correct...the Liberal Democrats are not big enough to overtake the Tories or Labour to make Clegg Prime Minister.

[Miranda Flint]

Thanks, George! I bow to your superior knowledge and apologize for my over eagerness on this one. Still, I think what's happening is something special.

[Miranda Flint]

Thanks, Guard, for your input as well.

[George Mason]

Miranda; You are correct, it is quite extraordinary. Clegg certainly is aided by the bumbling of the other candidates.