The Grim Landscape

The Democrats are celebrating the passage of healthcare as an historic achievement. They are right to do so. This was a tremendous victory for their party, in several senses, and the first piece of evidence that Barack Obama might be fit for the Presidency. Obama wavered, but rallied his troops and led them to victory. Nancy Pelosi may not be, as ABC News said in its video canonization, the most powerful woman in history, but she surely ranks as one of the most effective House Speakers. The Democrats have achieved an ambition they held so long that they long ago stopped thinking about it. They did so against tremendous pressures, including unanimous opposition from the Republican Party and the disapproval of a clear majority of the American people. Putting on my political scientist hat, I am in awe.

There is a chance, and Republicans would be foolish to ignore it, that this may be the beginning of a revival for the Democrats. Nothing succeeds like success. But it seems more likely that the Democrats' passage of a partisan, unpopular bill will cement the polarization of the electorate and the states for that matter. Already several states are planning court challenges and talking of "nullification."

No one knows how this healthcare bill will work. Indeed, no one knows what is in it yet. As Speaker Pelosi herself said, only now that it seems certain to pass will we find out. Much of the design of the bill, and certainly almost all of the schedule on which its various provision will come into effect, was aimed simply at making the bill look less expensive than it really is. It is very expensive. Pretty soon now, the real price tag and all the various deals made to pass it will be generally known.

The United States, like the welfare states of Europe, is about coming face to face with some very unpleasant economic realities. For decades it has been clear that our major social programs, Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, were on a path to insolvency. For as long as the money coming into those programs was more than the money going out, Congress was content to spend the surplus. Now the surplus is gone. The liabilities are projected to grow while the revenue base will fall further and further behind.

The politics of the healthcare reform push focused all of our attention on whether the reform would increase the deficits or not. The answer is that it will increase them. But that focus had the effect of concealing a more important truth. Even if the reform pays for itself, that is still a trillion dollars, more or less, that can't be available to restore the existing programs to solvency.

The solvency crisis is not only a federal problem. California is in serious danger of defaulting on its financial obligations. The Governor of Rhode Island has been on TV complaining of the cost that the reform bill will impose on the states. Rhode Island for Heaven's sake! A lot of states are in nearly as bad a condition as California. These states are crying for federal help when Washington is putting new burdens on them.

At just this point, when existing welfare institutions are going critical and the economy is very vulnerable, all Congress and the White House have been thinking about is how to get a new, massively expensive program passed. When we need some sense of common national purpose to solve the problems we face, the Democrats have passed legislation virtually guaranteed to sharpen national divisions.

That, gentle reader, is where we are now. Maybe the economy will come roaring back, and jobs galore will suddenly pop up everywhere. But given the almost a trillion dollars a year that we are adding to the deficit, every year for as far as the eye can see, it is not clear that any feasible growth rate can put us back into the black. I don't know how we are going to get out of this one. Our national government is not even thinking about that.

Comments

[Stan Gibilisco]

Yes they are. It's called a value-added tax (VAT). Most of the other developed nations have it. It started in France, I believe. The President's deficit-reduction panel will recommend it at the end of this year. Google on it, dear readers, and despair. (And for God's sake vote in November.)

[Lynn]

I also think that Obama wants this country to fail. I can think of no other reason for his obstinant adherence to policies which the people do not want and which will bankrupt this nation. Maybe we need to be aware of who is pulling his strings, supported him financially in the election, and what type of people he is surrounding himself with as advisors and cabinet. What is the combined agenda of these people? Many have advocated for the destruction of the USA and remake in their own socialist image. These are truly scary times for our nation. And ALL people need to wake up to this fact. No longer can people say "I can't do anything" and therefore don't do anything, even follow the news. We all need to read, listen, study, become aware of all the issues. Then if you prefer socialism/progressivism, so be it. At least you will be knowledgeable and know why. And if you like the USA as it was founded and realize the path we are now on, which I am hoping you do, then get out and make your voice heard, vote, read, join groups, protest, whatever. Just DO NOT SIT AND DO NOTHING, because as our founders were aware, the common people are very powerful when united against oppression!

[Guard]

And these events will continue to come to pass despite our fears and our worries...Our society has been going down this road for sometime, even before Democrats took control. This is a society that was built on greed and living beyond our means and not even the Republicans can stop what will befall us down the road to economic ruin. This is what happens when a society, such as ours, became so greedy and immoral in so many ways that these very things were prophesized to happen. It's out of our hands, out of our control, and the more Ken Blanchard discusses them or does not discuss them, the more we will continue to sink. That is why Faith is so important to the individual because despite what happens in the World, it is not our Will and never has been. The best one can hope for is Faith in our Savior and that is all.

[Guard]

Lynn...its not in our power to "do anything," but have Faith in the Lord and pray for your personal salvation. I think that is quite apparent now because it's been apparent to me for sometime. Greed exists in everyone whether we like to admit it or not. Lynn, it is out of our hands whether you want to accept it or not makes no difference. No election is going to change the overlying problems which have been going on for a long time, even before Obama. No cosmetic and image driven politics is going to change the real problems...never has and never will. The public may wake up and vote, but, deep-down...they do not truly want to fix their own missgivings...that is the majority of them....

[Lynn]

Guard, I have faith, pray, and also believe in personal salvation. But I do not believe that means I should just sit back and do nothing to change the course of events in this nation. I believe that God is in control but also allows people to have free will, which means we do have the ability to change things for the better. It does not mean we will always be successful, but we do have to try. If you go to a tea party gathering or a 9.12 meeting, you will find people who for the most part are Christian, deeply concerned, and determined to fix the problems we are now facing or at least make them better.

[GeneK]

An excellent summary--the best I've read. Yours is one of the few sane voices in the blogsphere that clearly lays out the issues and the consequences. There will be tough fiscal decisions in the years ahead--we will need rational heads to see us through it. I'm confident a leader will emerge but not likely from the current political class. The foolishness exists on both sides of the aisle--just makes you shake your head in bewilderment. I do believe that some changes were needed and in that regard I'm an old school Rockefeller Republican--that makes me a RHINO today but that's where I am. I don't see either party taking responsibility for the costs--it seems like a shell game. The costs are the real issue but the Republicans can't seem to get focused on what is really important because they are distracted by the agenda of fringe groups. I think David Frum’s “Waterloo” comments from this weekend are spot on. Interesting times.

[Stan Gibilisco]

Guard says:

"Our society has been going down this road for sometime, even before Democrats took control ... This is what happens when a society, such as ours, became so greedy and immoral in so many ways that these very things were prophesized to happen."

Unfortunately, I have to agree. We got into this mess because we, the people, became fiscally and morally irresponsible as individuals. "Of, by, and for the people ..." That principle remains true to this day. We, the people shall soon eat the weeds we have planted.

When our collective vomitus settles in the sewers of bitter experience, I hope we Americans will rebuild our society based on the principles of the Founders.

[Lynn]

Stan, based on your last statement, you should get involved in the 9.12 project, or maybe you already are.

[Guard]

Lynn, I hear you...but we are unfortunately past the point of no return.

[KB]

Thanks to all for the comments. Guard: your view is not implausible, but neither is it useful. It doesn't tell anyone what to do.

Gene: Thanks. Indeed, both parties are at fault. We have interesting times ahead.

[Guard]

KB, I do not need to tell what people need to do...As you can see I write it like it is and I am under no delusions. If a problem is not fixable with the current system of players...its just that: not fixable.