Plan 9 from Outer Space

What is going on in Congress right now is the greatest show on earth. The prospect of a fundamental piece of social reform passed by Congress in contempt of the manifest opposition of the public, well, one needs jugglers and computer graphics to capture that. Here is a brief sketch of the evolution of the Democratic legislative strategy.

PLAN A. Both the House and the Senate have passed healthcare reform bills. Standard procedure would be to refer both bills to a conference committee, consisting of members of both Houses and both parties. A single bill would emerge from conference and would have to be voted on again by both Houses. However, the Senate bill was passed when the Democrats still had a filibuster-proof 60 votes in the Senate. Republican Scott Brown replaced Ted Kennedy in the Senate (largely by running in vehement opposition to the reform bills, in one of the most Democratic states in the U.S.). Senate Republicans can now block a conference bill. In saner times, that would have been the end of it. But the Democrats are determined to pass reform, public opinion and fall elections be damned. So:

PLAN B. The Democrats could enact reform simply by passing the existing Senate bill in the House and then presenting it to the President for his signature. But the Senate bill was never intended to be the final version of the bill. Worse, portions of it are repugnant to way too many House Democrats. So that doesn't work. The problem here is not Republican opposition, but divisions within the House Democratic Caucus. At this point, in any rational universe, the project would have been abandoned.

PLAN C. Pelosi, Reid, and company decided to try to pass a bill by means of the reconciliation procedure. The House would pass the Senate bill, as written; but it would immediately pass a second bill proscribing changes in the first one. That second bill would be the real piece of legislation. The reconciliation bill would then be sent to the Senate, which could pass it by a simple majority. The Republicans could not filibuster.

Reconciliation has been used by both parties to get around the filibuster, but as former Hillary Clinton advisor Mark Penn points out, it was only used when relatively small special interest groups were blocking legislation favored by clear majorities in both houses and backed by public opinion. Using reconciliation in this case would be unprecedented. That doesn't mean it's unethical, let alone illegal or unconstitutional.

The question is whether Speaker Pelosi has the votes. A lot of House Democrats are facing very tough elections this fall. A vote for this bill in a procedure that looks bizarre might be the nail in their electoral coffins. They also have to go out on a limb. What happens if the Senate fails or even refuses to pass the reconciliation bill? Then the Senate bill will be enacted. That Pelosi doesn't have the votes is indicated by the consideration of a fourth option.

PLAN D. Pass the reconciliation bill without passing the Senate bill, and then "deem" the Senate bill to have passed the House without any Democrat in the House actually having to vote on it. This procedure has been used before by both parties. But again, never in the case of such a major piece of legislation, or to escape the duty of actually voting for a bill.

That Pelosi and House Majority Leader Hoyer are even discussing Plan D means that they don't have the votes for the reconciliation option. They may suppose that they can win a few more votes for a "reconciled" bill from those House members who don't have to vote for the Senate version first. But I don't see how that is so. House members will be judged by their constituents according to how they voted when it counted.

Plan D is just a way to keep the process going in the hope that, somehow, they will get the votes they need. Maybe Pelosi will pull this off, and the Democrats will create one more entitlement that we can't get rid of and can't afford. But this is a God awful mess.

Comments

[Stan Gibilisco]

In my opinion, this "mess" has the potential to evolve into the greatest test of American ideals since the War Between the States.

[William]

Indeed Stan, this "mess" risks exceeding the tipping point in the public's ability to view its Federal government as legitimate.

If this bill passes, the means used to pass it as much as its content risks a backlash perhaps unprecedented in our lifetime (and I'm a boomer).

How many Americans will refuse to comply?
http://www.carolinajournal.com/jhdailyjournal/display_jhdailyjournal.html?id=6203

How long does a government exist WITHOUT the consent of the governed?

According to a recent Rasmussen Poll, only 21 percent of American voters believe that the federal government enjoys the consent of the governed.
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/columns/Sunday_Reflections/Consent-of-the-governed—and-the-lack-thereof-86628027.html

[Guard]

None of this matters to me because both parties have been involved in entitlement programs and pork spending for their respective states. It's all the same...spend...spend...and spend more than living within our means. The debt has grown astronomically under both parties. It will make no difference for the economy who ever wins or retains control. KB, I use to fall for this crap and get all excited, but, I don't anymore and I don't even care because real life is lived by those who have to live in the real world and concern themselves with issues of whether they can afford to pay the bills. Most do not have the time and luxury to sit around in an university office to discuss the same old games going on in government. Sorry to burst your bubble, but, I had to say it like it was. I come from Montana and most here do not look at life in political prisms because they are too busy living it, working it on the range. In a way, I am very happy I do not involve myself with the gamesmenship of politics because I do not believe it is good for one's faith in Christ and their soul.

[Stan Gibilisco]

Guard, I envy you.

[Guard]

Stan, after many years of wrestling with the obvious, I finally came to realized that these matters are really out of our control: His Will be done on Earth as it is in Heaven...means our will is meaningless. These things occuring now are supposed to happen and no matter what we do, it will not change the course of His Will. Put your Faith in God and NOT men for to put your faith in other men or even yourselves is to have NO faith in our Creator.

[Warren Berry]

This health care bill is like "Plan 9 from Outer Space": Bad plot, bad acting, and orchestrated by the Ed Wood of American politics: Barack Obama. The Democrats are hoping that this health care bill, like Plan 9, might be unpopular but will become a cult classic.