Herseth-Sandlin v. Nelson Virtual Tie

A new Rasmussen poll on South Dakota is out.  Here are the most important results:

Herseth-Sandlin 46%/Chris Nelson 44%

A month ago Rasmussen had this:

Herseth-Sandlin 45%/Chris Nelson 38%

These numbers indicate real trouble for the Congresswoman. In the first place, she is stuck about 45%. As I wrote recently, well-known incumbents have a hard time improving on their initial poll numbers because they are, well, well-known. Voters have a pretty clear early idea whether they want her back or not. Anything below 50% spells real trouble.

By contrast, challengers usually have nowhere to go but up, at least at first. Secretary of State Chris Nelson's half dozen points in one month is a real gain. It is probably due to no more than growing name recognition. However, since the race is still well below the radar screen for most voters, that is impressive.

There is a popular saying among political junkies that all politics is local. Like a lot of popular sayings, it's wrong. One thing that is surely depressing Representative HS's poll numbers is dismay among Democrats regarding her vote on national health care legislation. My Keloland colleague, Cory Heidelberger is pushing primary challenger Dr. Kevin Weiland. Cory notes with some satisfaction that Weiland is picking up fans really rapidly on Facebook.

Far be it for me to ignore the testimony of the cybermasses. I am guessing, however, that Weiland will not deny HS the democratic nomination. Weiland's candidacy does mean something in either case. Every Democrat investing time and money in his campaign represents resources that the sitting Representative cannot count on right now. That puts her behind. Of course some of those resources will come back after the primary. But HS needs all of it. If the Democratic vote is even slightly depressed in November, the Congresswoman may well be depressed after the election.

Representative Herseth-Sandlin may have had genuine disagreements with the House health care bills, but she probably did not neglect to weigh the political consequences. She may have thought that a vote for a 940 billion more than a trillion dollar expansion of the welfare state would hurt her with Republicans and independents who voted for her in the past. If so, she was probably right. That doesn't mean that her vote will protect her against the larger political forces moving the nation right now. This looks to be a very strong year for Republicans. HS standing at 45% is one piece of evidence for that.

If someone gave me a wad of greenbacks to place, I would place some of it on Nelson to win the primary, and most of it on Nelson to win the general election. I'd get better odds on the second bet, but not a lot better.

Comments

[Roger Meyer]

Despite the fact that most people within the beltway feel anyone living more than 100 miles from Washington is an idiot and doesn't understand the system, I believe people really do understand that a vote for a Democratic congressional candidate/incumbent is a vote for Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House and a continuation of the shenanigans that preceded passage of the Healthcare Bill. The reaction could well be to change Speakers from Democrat to Republican which can only be done by changing Democratic Congresspeople to Republican Congresspeople.