Herseth-Sandlin in Spotlight

The National Republican Congressional Committee has demanded that Representative Herseth-Sandlin return campaign cash donated by former Ways and Means Chairman Charlie Rangel. The NRCC argues that the money is tainted, now that Rangel has been forced to give up his chairmanship due to a violation of House ethics rules. HS is refusing, of course. Hat Tip to South Dakota War College.

So would I, in her place. That the money came from Rangel doesn't make it tainted. Rangel's ethical lapses were many, but they were all examples of personal mischief. Unless it can be shown that the money was raised by selling kidneys harvested from orphans, or something like that, I don't see the problem.

More interesting is HS's attendance at a meeting with the President. Also from SDWC:

NBC's Chuck Todd is reporting via Twitter that Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin is heading to the White House tonight. The purpose of the meeting? President Obama will seek to win over the Democratic holdouts who opposed ObamaCare 1.0.

Chuck Todd writes, or tweets, that the healthcare "arm-twisting begins at happy hour at the WH where 10 House Dems who voted NO the first time will be attending." In a follow up tweet, Todd says Herseth Sandlin is one of ten invited Democrats.

When Representative Herseth-Sandlin voted no on ObamaCare last time, several of my Keloland colleagues raked her over the coals for it. See the image above right.  I believe Cory Heidelberger suggested that SD Democrats should punish her by withdrawing cash and other kinds of support.

I thought that was silly. When the House prepared to vote on its version of ObamaCare, Speaker Pelosi obviously had the numbers she needed. HS's defection didn't hurt the legislation, and may conceivably have strengthened her reelection campaign.

Now is different. The fact that the President is meeting with 10 former no votes suggests that Pelosi doesn't yet have the votes to pass the Senate bill. I have no way of knowing how close it is. The speaker will either schedule a vote or not, depending on whether she has enough confirmed yeas for passage. If she doesn't, then every Congressional Democrat not willing to declare that he or she would have voted for it can reasonably be held responsible for the defeat of the reform effort. I would say that about anyone who did vote against it last time, regardless of what they say now.

That doesn't mean that it makes sense for local Democrats to abandon Ms. HS. Representative Herseth-Sandlin is vulnerable. She is polling ahead of her possible Republican challengers, but under 50%. The general rule is that a well-known incumbent can't much improve on her/his initial support. Everyone has already made up their mind about the incumbent. For South Dakota Democrats to punish HS for voting no on ObamaCare would be understandable, but all it will do is hand the Republicans another house seat.

Comments

[caheidelberger]

Silly? You suggest her November vote may have strengthened her campaign, then point out that she's under 50% in the polls. Nelson has already shown the GOP strategy will be to rake her over the coals for voting aye on all the preliminary votes instead of blocking health care reform at every opportunity. Her November vote was futile triangulation. (Actually, I'm not sure that word applies, as it implies seeking a third position that balances two others. She's simply running to the other pole of the axis on this issue.) She'll do more for her electoral chances and her country if she says "yes, sir!" to the President on this one and votes for reform.

[KB]

Cory: It would indeed have been silly of South Dakota Democrats to oppose or refuse to support RHS when she voted against the House Bill the first time, as that vote didn't affect the outcome. That was my point.

It is not silly to think that her decision to vote no was unwise, which is your point here. Either way she votes, it would probably cost her with some voters. But apparently she has made the call and intends to vote no this time.

It might still be questionable for SD Democrats not to rally to her. All they can accomplish is giving the Republicans another seat in the House. But this time her votes might matter. For Democrats to oppose her now might be unwise, but it wouldn't be silly.

[Erik]

KB: Does SD only have one congressional seat? You are right, that it is a sign tha things are tight if Obama is bringing together the 10 no votes. It will be interesting to see how HS votes on this one.

[KB]

Erik: Yes, SD has one at large House seat. And yes, it is tight. HS is voting no.