Apparently so, if the AP report by Erica Werner is accurate. From TPM:
House leaders have concluded they cannot change a divisive abortion provision in President Barack Obama's health care bill and will try to pass the sweeping legislation without the support of ardent anti-abortion Democrats.
I haven't been trying to keep track of the votes in the House, but here is a quick summary. The Hill reports that Speaker Pelosi can afford to lose 37 Democrats, but not one more, to pass the Senate Bill out of the House. I am reminded of the engineer in Titanic saying: we can stay afloat with three chambers flooded, but not five. Not five! The Hill counted 25 Democrats as definite naysayers, and 12 "Stupak" Democrats as nay without a change in abortion language. That's 37. If these numbers are right and so is Werner, Pelosi has just enough.
Jay Cost on the RealClearPolitics Horserace Blog has been trying to keep count. He also counts 25 naysayers (those who voted no once before), and 19 possible nays. Cost is reporting that several Democrats today signaled that they were switching from yea to nay, including Henry Cuellar of Texas and Marion Berry of Arkansas.
I haven't seen the AP report confirmed anywhere else, so groans and hoorays are not yet in order. But as Cost puts it, it has been a very rough day for ObamaCare.
Of course, passing the bill out of the House doesn't mean that a bill will be passed into law. Keith Hennessey explains the intricacies and obstacles facing final passage through reconciliation. It looks like one of those innumerable tunnels that Indiana Jones has to shoot through. Unfortunately for reform advocates, this isn't a movie.
Democrats continue to talk and act as if they are sailing toward passage. Maybe the Speaker has a reservoir of votes that will switch in time. Otherwise, this looks like a slow motion train wreck.
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